What happened to coffee and meat prices after the US tariff hike?

Coffee and beef prices saw a slight drop in Brazil following the 50% tariff increase on Brazilian products imported into the United States. This is shown by the Broad Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released this Tuesday (26) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The survey, which covers the period from July 16 to August 14, is the first by the agency to include, in part, the period since the new American tariffs came into effect on the 6th. According to the survey, the items, among others, contributed to deflation in the food and beverage category (-0.53%) and in the general indicator (-0.14%).

According to the August IPCA-15 results, the price of ground coffee fell 1.47% compared to the previous month. Deflation was widespread across all the capital cities surveyed, with particular emphasis on Belo Horizonte (-1.96%), Belém (-1.92%), and Goiânia (-1.78%).

Although the cost of eating out increased by 0.52%, the price of a cup of coffee in this context varied by -0.52% (-0.62% in São Paulo and -0.22% in Porto Alegre).

Among meats, there was an average decline of 0.94%. The biggest drops were in the prices of filet mignon (-2.85%), fillet cap (-2.35%), ribs (-2.26%), flank (-1.59%), chuck (-1.57%), shoulder (-1.28%), common lizard (-1.22%) and round lizard (-1.1%).

Sirloin (-1.07%), picanha (-0.65%), rump (-0.38%) and chuck (-0.34%) also showed deflation in the analyzed period.

The American tariff hike obviously doesn't explain the reductions in consumer costs alone. Other factors also contributed to the negative price variation, including seasonal and regional factors.

In the housing category, there was a 1.13% drop in August, after a 0.98% increase in July. The group was strongly influenced by electricity, which fell 4.93% due to the incorporation of the Itaipu bonus .

Although the executive order confirming the tariff hike exempted nearly 700 items from the surcharge , coffee and beef, among other items, remained. As a result, analysts were already projecting a decline in domestic prices in the short term, due to increased supply in the domestic market.

“This increase in supply has to be channeled to some market, even if it is the domestic one, and this could actually lead to a drop in prices,” André Braz, coordinator of the Consumer Price Index at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), told Gazeta do Povo last month.

In the first six months of 2025, coffee beans were the most exported Brazilian agricultural product to the United States in terms of revenue. Sales to the country totaled US$1.17 billion, equivalent to 16% of all exports of the product, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC).

Beef came in second, accounting for US$1.03 billion in shipments to the United States. Frozen boneless beef shipped to the country totaled US$791 million (12% of total exports), while processed beef shipped to the US market generated US$239 million in revenue (65% of total exports).

Fruits and fish also saw deflation in the August IPCA-15

The results of the IPCA-15 for August also show a drop in the prices of fruit (-3.72%), fish (-1.1%) and oils and fats (-4.22%).

The fruit and fish sectors also depend heavily on demand from the American market and were excluded from the tariff exemptions.

The biggest negative variation was in the price of mango (-20.99%), followed by passion fruit (-11.68%), orange (-8.31%) and grapes (-6.61%). Strawberry, whose sales soared with the "strawberry of love" wave , showed the biggest increase (+11.18%).

Among fish, deflation was highlighted in baby fish (-3.46%), mackerel (-2.62%), pompano fish (-2.26%), tambaqui fish (-1.95%) and crab (-1.6%).