UBS raises gold price target to $3,800 per ounce

UBS raised its gold price target for 2025 this Friday to $3,800 per ounce (€3,240 at the current exchange rate). And for mid-2026, it projects the price of this commodity at $3,900 per ounce (€3,320). The bank warns that the "main risk" for this metal is that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates due to "inflation surprises." Gold is currently trading at $3,648 per ounce (€3,110).

The justification for this increase in the target price is related to "the anticipated easing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the devaluation of the US dollar, associated with interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks," reports the Reuters news agency.

UBS also revised its estimate for gold reserves in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), placing them at levels above 3,900 metric tons by the end of 2025, close to the previous maximum of 3,915 tons reached in October 2020, Reuters points out.

In a note, cited by the news agency, the bank states that it “maintains an attractive outlook” on gold and maintains a “long position” in this metal in terms of portfolio allocation, suggesting a mid-single-digit percentage allocation (in the mid-single-digit range).

UBS projects, Reuters reports, that central bank gold purchases will remain "robust" and range between 900-950 tonnes this year, or slightly below the near-maximum reached last year, or slightly above 1,000 tonnes.