The price of coffee in Brazil has doubled in a year and a half.

Coffee prices in Brazil rose 99.48% between January 2024 and June of this year, according to the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the country's official inflation indicator. After 18 consecutive months of increases, the last two months saw the first price reductions, of -1.01% and -2.17%, respectively.

The relief, however, is unlikely to last long: the price of coffee is expected to become even more expensive for Brazilians in the coming months.

In five years, the price of coffee rose 192% above inflation

A driving force behind inflation last year and early this year, coffee has been weighing heavily on household budgets for years. From January 2020 to last August, the price of coffee in Brazil has already increased by 230%—more than tripling its value in just over five years.

Over the same period, the accumulated variation in the IPCA (Brazilian Consumer Price Index) was 37.8%, meaning that the price of coffee for consumers rose 192% above inflation. While at the beginning of 2020, the item accounted for 0.28% of the population's monthly cost of living, it now accounts for 0.68%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Data from the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), based on collections only in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, show an even greater variation.

According to the survey, in January 2020, the average retail price per kilogram of traditional roasted and ground coffee was R$16.78. In June 2025, it reached R$66.70 – a 297% increase, or almost four times the value of five years ago.

Crop failures and increased demand influenced the price of coffee

Between 2021 and 2022, the national coffee industry faced one of its worst recent crises, with the smallest harvest in history due to the drought.

Last year, again, the lack of rain during the crop development period led many producers to increase spending on maintenance and pest control, which appear along with higher temperatures.

Furthermore, major international suppliers, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, faced significant production losses due to adverse weather conditions, resulting in a reduction in global coffee availability. All this amid a scenario of increasing global coffee consumption.

As a result, prices for a 60 kg bag in Brazil, both Arabica and Robusta varieties, reached their all-time highs on February 12 of this year, reaching R$2,769.45 and R$2,087.05, respectively, according to data from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq/USP).

With the start of the harvest, starting in March, the expectation of a better harvest in Southeast Asia and the reduction in Brazilian retail sales due to high prices, the value began to decline, reaching, in July, R$ 1,682.70 (-39.2%), in the case of Arabica coffee, and R$ 975.70 (-53.2%), in the case of Robusta.

In the same month, the IPCA recorded the first deflation in ground coffee, at 1.01%. In August, the product fell 2.17% cheaper, according to the indicator.

After a brief relief, a new high is coming

Now, uncertainty in the global market caused by new customs duties imposed on Brazilian products by US President Donald Trump has caused the price of grain to soar as the buying season begins for countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

As if the increase in demand were not enough, frosts that hit coffee plantations in the Cerrado Mineiro region on August 10 and 11 caused significant regional losses, with estimates among industry agents ranging from 400,000 to 600,000 bags.

The end of the harvest season, this September, also confirmed a significantly lower production of Arabica coffee than in the previous harvest, due to the low yield of beans after processing.

With 96% of the harvest completed, the National Supply Company (Conab) estimates a production of 35.2 million processed bags of the variety, a reduction of 11.2% compared to the previous season.

Demand, however, is trending upward. For the 2025/26 cycle, global coffee consumption is forecast at 169.4 million 60-kilogram bags, representing a 1.7% increase over the previous season and a new global record.

Meanwhile, global stocks at the start of the 2025/26 harvest are the lowest in 25 years, forecast at 21.8 million 60 kg bags, representing a 5.9% drop compared to the previous season.

“In August 2025, the seasonal reduction in the harvest in Brazil favors the increase in domestic prices as the Brazilian market moves towards the off-season,” Conab analysts emphasize.

The price hike is expected to soon reach consumers' cups and pockets. On September 1st, two of the country's leading coffee roasters announced price increases. Melitta informed its customers of a 15% increase in the price of processed beans, while 3corações increased the price of roasted and ground beans by 10% and instant coffee by 7%.