PSI closes September up 2.5% and has accumulated a 24.8% increase since the beginning of the year

The PSI ended September at 7,957.6 points, representing a monthly increase of 2.5% and occurring in a context of widespread growth in international markets.

Maxyield's analysis reveals that the PSI's upward trajectory has taken place for the ninth consecutive month in 2025 (it had fallen in the last 3 months of 2024).

Teixeira e Duarte joined the PSI after transferring from the PSI Geral, following the revision of the composition of the national stock market benchmark index in September, now having 16 listed companies. The improvement in Teixeira e Duarte's stock market performance, resulting from the restructuring of its liabilities and the growth of its construction portfolio, allowed its return to the first division of the national stock market.

The association of small shareholders says that the PSI's monthly variation band fluctuated between a 30.1% rise in Teixeira Duarte and a 4.6% fall in Corticeira Amorim.

In September, nine listed PSI companies showed an increase in value and seven suffered a decrease.

The monthly ranking of companies with an increase in value in September is made up of Teixeira e Duarte (30.1%), EDP Renováveis ​​(11.6%), EDP (6.6%), Ibersol (5%), Sonae SGPS (4.7%), BCP (4%), Semapa (3.4%), REN (2.3%) and Mota-Engil (0.9%).

On the contrary, the companies with the biggest reduction in value last month were Corticeira Amorim (-4.6%), Galp (-3%), Jerónimo Martins (-2.1%), Navigator (-1.3%), CTT (-1.2%), NOS (-0.4%) and Altri (-0.4%).

The PSI ended September in the middle of its variation range [7,790 points – 8,200 points], with the upper limit corresponding to the peak that preceded the 2012 bear market and taking us back to levels from 14 years ago, reveals Maxyield.

"A figure is added regarding the evolution of the PSI, bear markets and variation bands, in which the occurrence in the last decade of stock market cycles lasting two years is visible," adds the association, which says that the current variation band, with an orange hue, has a short amplitude, with the PSI being 3% of the upper limit of this range," says the association.

Maxyield adds that the next range is in the interval [8,200 points – 8,900 points] being reached with an increase of 8.5%.

The current scholarship cycle already lasts 5 years, he notes.

At the end of September, there were three companies with short selling situations involving Mota-Engil (1.66%), Galp (1.3%) and NOS (0.69%).

On the other hand, when comparing the index and prices at the end of the session on September 30, with the values ​​recorded on December 31, 2024, there was an increase of 24.8% since the beginning of the year.

Therefore, we witnessed a trend towards growth, with a strong interruption at the beginning of April, when the US Administration announced reciprocal tariffs, and an annual peak on August 21, exceeding 8,000 points, which takes us back to the beginning of 2011.

Since the beginning of the year, listed companies have fluctuated between a 565% rise in Teixeira e Duarte and a 10.6% fall in Corticeira Amorim, with 13 shares showing a positive annual variation and three companies suffering drops in value.

In the year to date, Teixeira e Duarte rose 565%, Mota-Engil 75%, BCP 62.1%, Sonae 46.4%, CTT 34.3%, REN 34.2%, Ibersol 33.7%, EDP 30.6%, Semapa 28.8%, NOS 16.8%/), Jerónimo Martins 12.2%, EDP Renováveis ​​11.6% and Galp 0.9%.

The three companies whose share price fell were Corticeira Amorim (-10.6%), Navigator (-8.9%) and Altri (-5.6%).

Maxyield highlights that "the high annual growth rate of the PSI and the decline in results for this corporate universe in the first half of this year are causing an increase in the PER (price-earnings ratio – the relationship between the share price and earnings per share)" which is "likely to generate a situation of overheating and a bubble effect," it warns.

The PSI's PER rose from 11.8 on December 31 to 20.9 at the end of September, the pace of which differs substantially from that of important international benchmark indices.

The assessment of the PSI universe's quotations, through its PER, tends to be high, raising pressing questions regarding the evolution of prices (high and expensive) and the national stock market in the next 12 months.

Global stock markets are reflected in the Morgan Stanley Capital International index, known for short as MSCI World, which experienced monthly growth of 3.1% in September/2025 and shows an annual growth of 16.2%.

The MSCI World Index reached a new all-time high in September, continuing its upward trajectory of the past four months, amid a general rally in global stock markets. Despite the adverse circumstances, none of this deterred the bullish momentum of global stock markets.

Looking at Wall Street, September saw significant growth, with major indexes reaching new yearly highs during the month. The S&P 500 index, comprising the largest 500 companies listed on the NYSE, posted monthly growth of 3.5% in September/2025 and saw annual growth of 13.7%.

The Nasdaq technology index is showing a 5.6% monthly increase and a 17.3% increase since the beginning of the year. Tech stocks have been experiencing erratic and volatile performance, with several sell-off sessions following the rally linked to artificial intelligence.

The European benchmark Stoxx 600 posted a 1.5% monthly increase in September and is up 10% this year, remaining far from the annual highs reached in March. The monthly and year-to-date performance of the North American indexes has outperformed the European benchmark.

Uncertainties about the implementation of new tariffs by the US and a less than enthusiastic earnings season help explain the reduced dynamism of the Stoxx 600.

The German market (DAX 30), the London FTSE 100 index, the IBEX 35 and the PSI have continued to outperform the European benchmark index since the beginning of the year.

On a global scale, we are facing an asymmetric economic cycle with Chinese deflation, Japanese stagflation, the North American slowdown, and the difficult European takeoff. Regarding interest rate trends in 2025, it is worth noting the 0.25% reduction in key interest rates by the ECB in January, March, April, and June, and by the BoE in February, May, and August.

In September, the Fed made the first annual cut of the current interest rate reduction cycle, which began in 2024 with reductions in key rates in September (0.5%), November and December (0.25%).