Fitch assesses Portugal's rating today

Fitch will announce its assessment of Portugal's rating today, which is currently close to the highest levels in the classification of the main agencies, with analysts divided on the direction of the assessment.

The Portuguese sovereign debt rating was among its lowest levels for several years, following the crisis that undermined investor and market confidence.

In recent years, the governments of António Costa and then Luís Montenegro have set themselves the goal of reducing public debt and achieving positive budget balances, or as close to them as possible, which has improved Portugal's image among investors.

Portugal's rating has followed this change in the management of public accounts and now DBRS rates sovereign debt at A (high) and Moody's at A3, while Fitch currently has the rating at A-.

S&P was the last agency to evaluate the rating, on August 29, and improved the rating from 'A' to 'A+', just six months after another upgrade.

"The likelihood of Fitch upgrading Portugal's rating as early as this Friday [today] is high. The agency currently maintains the rating at A- with a positive outlook, meaning it recognizes solid fundamentals and has already left the door open to an upgrade," said Paulo Monteiro Rosa, senior economist at Banco Carregosa, in a response to Lusa.

However, he said, "it is not impossible that Fitch will choose to wait a few more months, first confirming the 2025 budget execution and the approval of the 2026 budget."

In turn, Vítor Madeira, from XTB, believes that “it is most likely that Fitch will maintain Portugal's sovereign rating at A-, with a positive outlook”, pointing out that “despite the favorable evolution of some indicators, there is still no sufficiently robust and consistent evidence to justify an upgrade to A”.

Each rating agency has its own assessment scale, but for all of them the best rating is triple A (AAA) and the letters C or D indicate assessments in which the investment is considered risky or speculative (commonly called 'junk').

A rating is a classification assigned by financial rating agencies that assesses the credit risk (ability to pay debt) of an issuer, which can be a country or a company.