Elections: Milei puts her government to the test, and Kicillof seeks to establish himself as the Peronist candidate.

This Sunday's legislative elections will determine the composition of Congress starting December 10 and could reshape the center of gravity of the national political system. The impact of the outcome will be felt sooner. After the US bailout, Javier Milei needs to project a national victory while defining changes to the Cabinet and the profile of his administration for the second half of his term.

The government is attempting to regain the political initiative and guarantee governability after months on the defensive due to accumulating defeats in provincial and parliamentary elections and currency instability. The opposition is putting its leadership at stake, a starting point for 2027. The two main political forces envision the election as a runoff to plebiscite the presidential administration, and six governors are attempting to break the polarization.

Formally, 36 million voters are eligible to cast their ballots at 17,398 polling stations across the country and abroad, with the debut of the Single Paper Ballot , a first for national elections. Half of the seats in the House of Representatives (127) and one-third in the Senate (24) will be up for election.

The impact of the end of the electoral roll on the vote is still unknown. The suspension of the PASO ( Primary Elections) for the first time since their introduction in 2011 will also impact voter behavior. The level of turnout could also be decisive, after record absenteeism was recorded in the previous elections in several provinces.

Whatever the outcome, LLA's representation will increase in both chambers. The ruling party is not putting any seats up for grabs in the Senate and is only renewing two seats in the House of Representatives. However, the President himself and Luis Caputo — the most powerful minister in the Cabinet —described these elections as " more decisive" than those of 2027 .

However, its eventual growth would be (largely) at the expense of some of the blocs that collaborated with the ruling party in Congress and, above all, allies such as the PRO , which is putting 21 of its 35 seats at stake and has already given up space on the lists it shares with the Libertarians in CABA, the Province and Entre Ríos .

The ruling party has put two ministers on the ballot: Patricia Bullrich (Security) as the first candidate for senator for the City, and Luis Petri (Defense) as the top candidate in Mendoza.

LLA is the only electoral brand that is repeated in all 24 national districts , although the composition of the fronts varies by district. The ruling party managed to forge alliances with the mayor of Mendoza and the governors of Mendoza, Entre Ríos, and Chaco . It imposed its electoral stamp and the top candidates on all of them.

The National Electoral Chamber did not authorize the government to institutionally announce a national projection of the provisional vote count results and emphasized that these are 24 simultaneous elections. Interpretations will be left to political and journalistic analysis.

Peronism is launching the name Fuerza Patria (Force Patria) at the national level, the name it used in its nearly 14-point victory in the province on September 7. However, the name is only used in 13 provinces. The Unión por la Patria bloc, with which Peronism so far identifies in Congress, is putting 46 of its 98 seats in the House of Representatives and 15 of its 34 senators at stake .

In the background, the leadership of Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof, who managed to impose the split between provincial and national elections, is being contested against Cristina Kirchner, who opposed it. A narrow lead in the province, where 40 percent of the population lives—without the well-oiled machinery of mayors who aren't risking their own governability—could restart the internal struggle paused by electoral discipline.

Governors Maximiliano Pullaro (Santa Fe), Martín Llaryora (Córdoba), Ignacio Torres (Chubut), Claudio Vidal (Santa Cruz), Gustavo Valdés (Corrientes), and Carlos Sadir (Jujuy) are launching the United Provinces coalition, a coalition that will attempt to break the polarization and become a powerful force. Despite some internal dissent, they have taken their electoral brand to other districts they do not govern.

The performance in Córdoba, a key election for Milei in 2023, where former governor and presidential candidate Juan Schiaretti will be the candidate, could influence the construction of a virtual national result.

The provincial ruling parties of Río Negro, Neuquén, and Misiones will attempt to retain their seats. Without the PASO (Primary Elections), the Left is also putting its seats at stake. Radicalism, divided into four blocs, is holding 70 percent of its seats, among all the varieties of its representatives divided by their ties to the ruling party.

The power of governors of all parties in Congress displaced the influence of the parties.

Milei needs to secure a third of the legislators to ward off the specter of impeachment and secure decrees and vetoes without relying on agreements. He is more ambitious about a more friendly Congress to advance labor reform, tax reform, and, on the horizon, a pension reform.

In any case, even if he obtains an extremely favorable result, he will have to mend the bridges and ties he has broken with opponents and allies . Mauricio Macri is also awaiting the results and the President's subsequent moves to define his relationship with the ruling party.

Behind closed doors in the government , amid rumors of sweeping cabinet changes, the election result could ultimately settle the internal conflict at the heart of the Casa Rosada between the Menem group that reports to Karina Milei and Santiago Caputo . Outside the country, look at Donald Trump , who has already warned that if Milei doesn't win, the United States won't be "so generous" to Argentina.