Trump is a revolutionary, will he succeed?

The hyperactive first 100 days of Donald Trump's second term have been the most influential of any president this century, perhaps since the era of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Before the inauguration, Americans were wondering what kind of government they would have. That debate is now over. Trump is spearheading a revolutionary project that aspires to remake the economy, bureaucracy, culture, foreign policy, and even the very idea of America itself. The question for the next 1,361 days is: will he succeed? Trump's presidency has been very popular with his voters. His approval rating among Republicans is at 90%. He has encountered little resistance on all fronts and has attacked the civil service, law firms, universities, the media, and any institution he associates with the Democratic-leaning elite. Read also Americans' opinion of allies has deteriorated since Trump's arrival. The Economist Like any revolution, MAGA has a method and a theory. The method is to bend or flout the law with an avalanche of executive orders; and, when the courts react, to challenge them for daring to disobey the president. The theory is that of unchecked executive power; the idea championed by Richard Nixon that if the president does something, then it's legal. Such behavior has already undermined the things that truly make America great: a vision of the national interest broad enough to include paying for AIDS drugs in Africa, a sense that independent institutions have their own value, a belief that political opponents can be patriotic, and faith in the dollar. If this revolution is not contained, it could lead to authoritarianism. Some MAGA intellectuals admire Hungary, where Viktor Orban exerts his control over the courts, universities, and media. And it's true that the United States offers some leeway for an aspiring authoritarian leader. Congress has created many exceptions to the usual rules that can be triggered if the president declares an emergency; Trump is taking full advantage of them—just look at his satisfaction with the ability of El Salvador's president to imprison people without trial. While MAGA can't control the media, he can intimidate its corporate owners; and, furthermore, fragmentation has diluted the press's power to check the president. Congress is compliant because Republicans owe it their office, and they know it. One concern is that the courts will hold firm and the government will eventually defy their rulings. Another is that, fearing this, the Supreme Court will try to preserve its authority by caving in preemptively. Protest against US research cuts ROBYN BECK / AFP However, there is another scenario that is more likely, one in which the extremism of the first 100 days awakens powerful forces of resistance. One of those forces is investors in the bond and stock markets. Although they were generally enthusiastic about Trump's election, they have also been his most effective opponents—not because of political convictions, but because they are driven by reality. They are alarmed, and rightly so, by the poisoning of the economy caused by tariffs. The runaway budget deficit and political incompetence could lead to a collapse of the dollar. Faced with market distress, Trump has backtracked twice in the last month: first, on the imposition of "reciprocal" tariffs; and last week, on the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Moreover, while Elon Musk promises to spend less time demolishing bureaucracy to focus on his ailing electric car business, Trump has hinted that he wants to find a way out of the unsustainable and poorly planned trade war he has launched against China. Read also Trump's tariffs will hurt the economy, but the world can limit the damage. The Economist Another source of resistance could be voters, including Republicans, if the economy goes badly. Although Trump has managed to curb illegal immigration, his national approval rating has already fallen further and faster than that of any other president and has surpassed his own first-term record for American dissatisfaction. The Economist 's models indicate that his approval rating is now below 50% in all the swing states he won in November. Most Americans don't want a revolution. Many like the idea of restoring manufacturing, but only a quarter say they're willing to work in those new factories. They like the idea of fair trade, but they don't want chaos. And no one likes inflation. Trump, like other presidents, may think that a narrow election victory entitles him to be immortalized on Mount Rushmore; but his victory doesn't give him the right to rule by decree, shut down agencies created by Congress, suspend habeas corpus, or seize Greenland. In the end, poor poll results will take their toll on elected officials. The United States is too large a federal system with too many competing centers of power to become like Hungary (whose population is similar to that of New Jersey). And Congress, too, could become a problem for Trump. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives and were only able to pass a budget framework due to the deaths of a pair of Democratic representatives. Betting markets give Democrats more than an 80% chance of recapturing the House next year. That control will allow Democrats to rein in Trump, even if he continues to rule by executive order. In the Senate, Republicans are seven votes short of the 60 needed to avoid a filibuster. Those limitations are real. Seat of the Supreme Court of the United States Europa Press/Contact/Mark Alfred The last source of resistance is the courts. The law is moving slowly, but the Supreme Court has already ruled 9-0 in the case of a man wrongfully deported to El Salvador. Like other institutions, the courts have less to fear from the challenge of an unpopular president. The government can still lose cases over tariffs, over the president's ability to fire officials and close agencies without congressional support, and over Trump's indiscriminate use of emergency provisions like the Alien Enemies Act. If that happens, the Trumpian theory of executive power will be discredited. Even in the least pessimistic reading of the MAGA revolution, Trump has already caused lasting damage to America's institutions, alliances, and moral standing. And if reined in by investors, voters, or the courts, Trump is likely to lash out at institutions with even greater ferocity. Using the newly politicized Justice Department, he could persecute his opponents and stoke the fear and conflict that give him license to act. Abroad, he could lead to provocations capable of destroying alliances—for example, in Greenland or Panama. There is no going back to how America was 100 days ago. All there are are 1,361 days ahead. © 2025 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix