The World Bank projected a drop in oil prices, complicating the future of Vaca Muerta.

The World Bank 's latest report left a discouraging message for the future of Vaca Muerta . According to the organization, commodity prices will fall 12.4% this year and another 4.8% in 2026. The document predicts that energy prices, particularly oil , will fall 17% in 2025 and a further 6% the following year, which would jeopardize further developments in the Neuquén formation.

"Weak economic growth and excess supply will drive prices to their lowest level in a decade," states the "Commodity Markets Outlook" report, published this week. This warning is particularly relevant for Argentina, where Vaca Muerta requires high levels of investment and faces higher extraction costs than its competitors.

The World Bank estimates that a barrel of Brent crude will average $64 in 2025 and $60 in 2026. These are lower values ​​than those recorded after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, marking the end of a cycle of high prices. In this new scenario, it will be more difficult to attract investment in fracking projects, which require technology, infrastructure, and stable economic conditions.

The organization clarified that, although prices will remain above 2020 levels, when adjusted for inflation, they could fall below the 2015-2019 average. This complicates matters for developing economies that export raw materials , such as Argentina. "Two out of three developing countries will be affected," the report warned.

The decline in oil and gas prices is affecting the profitability of unconventional projects. Meanwhile, the United States and Canada, which have established structures, will continue to lead the shale market. The loss of competitiveness will be a problem for Vaca Muerta , which currently needs to maintain the interest of foreign capital.

“The price boom is over,” explained Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank . “We are now facing the highest volatility in more than 50 years, and that is not a good sign for those who depend on commodity exports,” he added. If the projections come true, Argentina will have less room to position itself as a strong player in the energy market. The prolonged fall in oil prices will hit Vaca Muerta hard, just as the country is trying to strengthen its trade balance and attract foreign currency.