Six Nations 2025: Why France now has its destiny in its own hands to win the Tournament

The French XV hit hard in Rome. Fabien Galthié's men humiliated the Italians on Sunday, February 23, by signing a record number of points for the Blues in a Six Nations Tournament match (73-24) . Beyond the simple demonstration, this large victory allows them to believe again in their chance to win the Tournament, undermined from the second day after the cruel defeat against the XV de la Rose (26-25) . Franceinfo: sport explains why a tricolor consecration is still possible this year.

Because Ireland didn't get the bonus against Wales

The only unbeaten team in the Tournament, Ireland certainly continued their flawless run but were, despite everything, jostled by the valiant Welsh (27-18) on Saturday. In Cardiff, the double title holders suffered. With a slightly reshuffled team, deprived of its injured captain Caelan Doris, the XV du Trèfle was notably reduced to 14 for 20 minutes.

With their new coach Matt Sherratt, in place since February 11, the Welsh even equalized in the 66th minute (18-18), before falling nine points short. This scenario deprives the Irish of the offensive bonus (they only scored two tries), pocketing only four points during this trip. One less point that could be important if France wins in Ireland on March 8.

Because France has a much better points difference

If France is in provisional second place (with 11 points) behind Ireland and its 14 points, it has taken a good option with the goal average, in other words the difference between points scored and conceded. With 21 tries scored since the start of the tournament for a total of 141 points scored, France has a largely positive balance (+91 points), against only +28 for Ireland (for its 10 tries).

Twenty-one tries is as many as at the end of the 2023 Tournament, which finished in second position. The comparison is even more striking with the year 2022, where the French XV achieved the Grand Slam by scoring 17 tries for a final total of 141 points...

Because a French victory in Ireland would put the Blues back in pole position

" In Dublin, it's going to be 'THE' match. If we win this match, we know that we'll have a good chance of winning the Tournament," assured second row Mickaël Guillard in Rome . "From the final whistle, everyone's mind was on Ireland," confirmed Anthony Jelonch, the Blues' third row. " We looked at the points, we looked at everything we had to do. This match in Ireland will have the feel of a final. If we win in Ireland, we'll be masters of our destiny because we have a better goal average."

Indeed, if the Blues were to win in Dublin (which they have not done since 2021), they would pocket at least four points for the victory (five if they score at least four tries). The Irish would then score zero points, or one with the defensive bonus (in the event of a defeat of seven points or less), or even two if they score four tries or more.

The French would then be ahead, or equal with the XV du Trèfle but with a much better goal average. To lift the trophy, a victory in Paris against Scotland (at 9pm on France 2), in the final match of this tournament knowing the result of the Irish in Italy (who will play at 3:15pm) will lead France to the final victory. The XV du Chardon only has one success in this tournament.