Donald Trump: What to expect from his trip to the desert states

This is not Donald Trump's (78) first meeting with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the de facto head of state of Saudi Arabia. The two men met in 2017, first in Washington, then later in Riyadh. But now, multi-billion dollar deals are expected to crown Trump's first visit since returning to the White House. Several US CEOs are traveling to Riyadh, including those from BlackRock, Citigroup , and IBM , as Bloomberg reports.

"MBS," as he is often called, is likely to seize the opportunity to portray himself as an indispensable figure in the Middle East. The power-mad and unscrupulous ruler wants to polish his kingdom's image and attract new investors for the country's transformation as part of the "2030" program, observers say. The monarch's vision has contributed to Saudi Arabia's modernization in the past. The desert state is also slated to host the World Expo in 2030 and the men's soccer World Cup in 2034.

Saudi Arabia has recently struggled to attract foreign direct investment and advance megaprojects like the futuristic city of Neom in northwestern Saudi Arabia. In 2024, foreign direct investment declined for the third consecutive year. This is expected to change in the medium term. Big business is now the order of the day, and the deals struck during Trump's Middle East trip are likely to be duly celebrated with a lavish program.

Trump himself had previously boasted of agreeing to $1 trillion in investments and trade relations for US companies. According to reports, MBS has already pledged that Riyadh will invest $600 billion in the US over four years. Not without calculation: MBS is using his connection to Trump to gain better access to US military technology and AI technology. A US-Saudi investment forum with US CEOs is planned for Tuesday, focusing on technology, AI, and energy.

The United Arab Emirates, for its part, had promised $1.4 trillion in investments spread over ten years in the run-up to Trump's Middle East trip. Qatar, finally, is expected to make an investment commitment worth several hundred billion dollars during Trump's Doha leg.

All of the Arab states Trump is visiting during his Middle East trip are struggling with declining oil prices. According to Bloomberg, many analysts see prices hovering between $60 and $65 per barrel for the foreseeable future. This would be significantly below what Saudi Arabia needs to bring its budget into balance, analysts estimate. As a result, the kingdom has recently been forced to borrow more heavily: Debt rose by about $30 billion in the first quarter, reaching the highest level in the country's history.

But the visit also has a significant political dimension: Trump has so far failed to deliver on peace in the Middle East, just as he has not yet fulfilled his bold promises to quickly end the war between Ukraine and Russia .

MBS is said to be supporting Trump in realizing his peacemaking ambitions. Saudi Arabia has already been discussed as a venue for Trump's planned meeting with Vladimir Putin . Saudi Arabia hosted various talks with the US, Russia, and Ukraine in February and March.

Conversely, during Trump's tour, the Gulf states will pressure the US to pursue an agreement with arch-enemy Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, reports the Financial Times . Trump will also meet with the heads of state of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Middle East.

Political analysts, however, doubt whether Trump will succeed in striking a grand political deal that would lead to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Israel's 19-month-long war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip has thrown the region into turmoil. "You can't avoid talking about Gaza, but the focus will be on the economic agreements," the FT quoted a diplomat as saying.