COP 30 | Climate Summit in a High-Risk Area

"The US will not send any high-ranking representatives to COP 30." This statement by a White House spokesperson shortly before the start of the UN climate conference in Belém, Brazil, brought relief to many NGO representatives. Washington withdrew from the Paris Agreement under Donald Trump, but is still allowed to participate in this summit. It's almost unimaginable what a strong Washington delegation, riddled with right-wing climate change deniers and fossil fuel lobbyists, could do during the two-week negotiations.

This incident also demonstrates how low expectations are for COP 30. It is facing an ominous situation given geopolitical tensions, the trend toward bilateral trade deals, and increasing right-wing opposition to any climate policy. Ten years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, progress is more difficult than ever. Yet it is becoming ever more urgent: "We have probably already lost the tropical coral reefs," says meteorologist Frank Böttcher, organizer of the extreme weather congress. "At the latest, once warming reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius, we will also enter high-risk territory with regard to other tipping points."

Climate diplomacy, however, is proceeding on a business-as-usual basis, as the agenda for Belém reveals. A decision on expanding adaptation financing is pending. Further discussions will focus on the issue, postponed at COP 29 in Baku, of how to mobilize the necessary $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance for poor countries. It remains unclear whether the significant gap in nationally determined development plans (NDCs), which are far from sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target, will be addressed. Host nation Brazil intends to exclude sensitive issues from the planned "overall agreement" and strengthen forest protection in order to claim the conference as a success.

Not all delegations are satisfied with this. Pressure is mounting from the High Ambition Coalition – a group of states founded by the Marshall Islands, committed to the 1.5-degree target and solidarity with vulnerable countries. Shortly before the start of the summit in Belém, it called for a binding agreement on rapidly closing the emissions gap in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and steps to reform the international financial architecture. The declaration was signed by 22 states, primarily from Europe, Latin America, and small island states. The latter are facing existential threats and urgently need genuine progress on climate protection and financial issues.

Climate diplomacy, however, is relying on business as usual.

But this will only happen if the major polluters China, the USA, and the EU also commit to "high ambition" and work together. The Paris Agreement only came about when the presidents in Washington and Beijing forged a surprising climate alliance. Nothing remains of that: During Trump's second term, the strategic climate dialogue between the two superpowers was put on hold.

And so, the Big Three will pursue only their own interests at the Belém negotiations. China, as the spokesperson for the major emerging economies, is vying for greater influence on the international stage. "Significant geopolitical shifts are shaping global climate action," explains the NGO Germanwatch. At the same time, Beijing and its allies have so far refused to make any real financial commitments to poor countries, without which the trillion-euro target will remain unattainable. It is unlikely that anything will change in this regard in Belém.

China is similarly vague on climate protection. While President Xi Jinping did promise an absolute emissions reduction of seven to ten percent by 2035 at the UN General Assembly, this amounts to little more than a declaration of goodwill, as Beijing has not yet reported this to the UN as a national commitment under the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, Martin Kaiser of Greenpeace calculates that at least a 30 percent reduction would be necessary to stay within the 1.5-degree range.

This is also reflected in the energy sector. While China has expanded its wind and solar energy capacity like no other country in recent years, increasing it sixfold compared to 2020, and the electrification of transportation is progressing rapidly, with over 7.5 million battery-powered vehicles sold this year – more than in the rest of the world combined – both of these developments are driven by commercial export interests. China aims to become a global leader in green technology, a goal clearly outlined in its five-year plan for 2026 to 2030.

At the same time, the People's Republic is massively expanding its particularly climate-damaging coal sector: from new mines and transport infrastructure to power plants. According to the "Global Coal Exit List" published by the NGO Urgewald, two-thirds of all global financing for new coal projects last year came from Chinese banks, and other countries are also expanding their production due to high demand from China. Urgewald also points to the expansion of the coal chemicals sector, where almost half of the new projects worldwide are located in the People's Republic. "This releases significantly more greenhouse gases than burning coal in a power plant," explains Managing Director Heffa Schücking.

It is therefore not surprising that China now accounts for about a third of global annual _CO2 emissions. Per capita emissions are roughly on par with Germany's – although Western industrialized nations have historically contributed far more to global warming, thus implying a greater responsibility for reducing emissions.

The US government wants nothing to do with this. The country is second only to global emissions at 13 percent, with higher per capita emissions than China. Here, too, there's a dichotomy in the energy sector: Trump has issued the slogan "Drill, baby, drill" and is pushing for new oil and gas projects. Climate protection regulations are also being relaxed, such as the classification of _CO2 as hazardous to health. On the other hand, economic interests argue for the further expansion of renewable energy. In the states of Iowa, South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma, more than 40 percent of electricity is already generated from wind power, and conservative Texas recently overtook California as the leader in solar energy. Furthermore, regional emissions trading systems with _CO2 prices have been implemented.

The hopes of some NGOs that an EU-China alliance would advance climate diplomacy after the US withdrawal have not been fulfilled. Mutual distrust and economic interests are standing in the way. Brussels has imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese imports of electric cars and is considering doing the same for solar cells. At the same time, the EU – the fourth-largest emitter with a six percent share – is not going to Belém as a pioneer. The UN deadlines for new climate plans were allowed to pass; the environment ministers only recently agreed on a meager target for 2035 with loopholes. Martin Kaiser goes even further, arguing that the debates about targets are currently pointless anyway, since the implementation of all EU climate protection measures, from emissions trading to the phasing out of combustion engines, is being called into question under pressure from industry and the political right.

This also affects climate finance: Germany, one of the most important donors, fulfilled its pledge of six billion euros for the Global South for the first time last year. However, cuts in favor of the military are already underway: Jan Kowalzig of Oxfam predicts that only 4.5 to 5.3 billion euros will be provided this year and 4.4 to 5.0 billion euros in 2026.

Despite such signs, COP 30 host Brazil is banking on the message of "mutirao" – but the "joint effort" will likely have to come from someone other than the major polluters. At least there doesn't seem to be a grand alliance of obstructionists led by the US. Donald Trump will nevertheless be present in Belém, in 6,000 different forms. Street artists Jens and Lasse Galschiøt plan to confront the delegates with miniature sculptures of the US president, accompanied by the message: "King of Injustice."