COP 30 | Billions will be left empty-handed in the adjustment

Typhoon Kalmaegi has left a trail of destruction across parts of the Philippines. According to the Civil Defense on Thursday, more than 140 people have died, and many are still missing. More than 500,000 residents are still waiting to return home. On the island of Cebu, entire towns and villages were flooded. The muddy floods swept away cars, trucks, and even huge shipping containers. Governor Pamela Baricuatro said in a radio interview that the chaos was "unprecedented."

The increasing frequency, faster intensification, and longer duration of landfall of tropical cyclones are consequences of climate change. The extent of flooding will depend on the degree of warming. The problem is exacerbated regardless, also due to rising sea levels. Preparing for this is a classic case of climate adaptation. Improved coastal protection, such as the construction of so-called climate dikes or the creation of polders, can help. In cases of severe impact, entire coastal cities would have to be relocated inland. The populations of island atolls, which barely rise above the ocean, are already preparing to move to the mainland sooner or later. All of this costs a great deal of money, which is often lacking in countries in the Global South that are particularly affected by global warming. However, since they have also contributed little to climate change, wealthier countries have a responsibility to financially compensate for this inequality. This involves not only flood protection but also, among other things, reforestation, soil conservation, and securing water supplies.

The recently published Climate Adaptation Finance Index (CAFI) by the aid organization Bread for the World reflects the current state of climate adaptation financing. It indicates whether funds are distributed fairly in relation to climate risk and the population size of the recipient countries. According to the index, only 0.1 percent of the people in the 129 countries studied receive a risk-adjusted share of funding. Ninety-six percent of those affected are severely or even extremely underfunded – in absolute terms, this applies to approximately six billion people, according to the study. Among the most severely underfunded countries are Afghanistan, Chad, South Sudan, Somalia, Niger, Mali, and Yemen. Of the three particularly affected groups of countries – the least developed countries, the African states, and the small island developing countries – only the latter receive moderate funding relative to their climate risks, according to the new index.

The Global South is calling for a tripling of financial flows for climate adaptation by 2030.

“It is alarming to see that the countries with the highest climate risks have the least access to adaptation financing – indeed, these countries are practically being avoided,” notes Sabine Minninger of Bread for the World. The climate expert criticizes the lack of distributive justice. This applies to funds coming from Germany as well as those from other donor countries. And following the US's near-complete withdrawal from climate finance, the funding gap is even widening.

In 2022 – the last year for which data is available – the US contributed 6.4 percent, or $4.2 billion, to adaptation financing. Of this, the 129 countries included in the index received approximately $2.8 billion. More money came from multilateral development banks, Germany, the EU, France, and Japan. Bread for the World also investigated whether industrialized countries are keeping their commitment from the 2021 Glasgow Climate Summit to double their aid for climate adaptation in developing countries between 2019 and 2025. According to an OECD database, while total adaptation financing from industrialized countries increased in absolute terms between 2019 and 2022, its share of total climate finance fell from 34 to 29 percent – ​​far from the agreed balance between climate action and adaptation.

Economic interests often lie behind this development. Climate protection projects are frequently linked to the export of the corresponding technologies. The distribution of funds is not based on climate risks, but rather on other indicators, suspects Sabine Minninger. She calls for climate finance to focus on the interests of vulnerable countries, those most severely affected. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil, will be crucial in this regard. For Minninger, COP 30 is de facto a "climate adaptation summit" where, upon closer inspection, only one "hard" decision will have to be made – the one concerning the global adaptation target. The Global South is demanding a tripling of financial flows for this area by 2030. To achieve this, the summit is expected to agree on a list of indicators that, put simply, should ensure a more targeted use of adaptation funds, for example, with specific targets in areas such as health or agriculture.

Bread for the World also points out that the 20 countries most affected will have to spend approximately US$750 billion on debt servicing alone by 2031. For 16 of these countries, this amounted to more than 20 percent of their tax revenue in 2024. The aid organization therefore calls for adjustment financing not only to be increased, but also to be provided as grants rather than loans, in order to prevent further increases in debt. Furthermore, new sources of financing are needed that adhere to the polluter-pays principle: taxes on companies in the fossil fuel industry and on the super-rich, as well as a global solidarity levy, for example on flights and private jets.

Typhoon Kalmaegi made landfall in Vietnam on Monday evening, a country already battered by record rainfall and flooding that has claimed 47 lives. Meanwhile, the Philippines is preparing for the next tropical storm: Fung-wong is expected to hit the coast as a super typhoon on Monday.