Upset alert in NFL Week 3? Why these five favorites could fall, including Lamar Jackson and the Ravens

We were as dialed in as we could have asked for in Week 2, identifying the bulk of the underdogs who ultimately came out victorious. Three of the five games that we pinpointed last week proved to be outright upsets. One of the two misses included the Jacksonville Jaguars blowing the win (and cover) with 18 seconds to play in regulation. The only game of those five contests that was never really in question came last Thursday with Green Bay handling Washington. Overall, we had our finger on the pulse. And we're back at it again for Week 3.

This upcoming slate is a little murky, given the slew of quarterback injuries. For instance, we're staying away from Bengals-Vikings because of the injuries under center and backups set to start. Ditto for Raiders-Commanders, as we don't know the status of Jayden Daniels either. Nevertheless, there's a handful of games where the dogs could be live, putting these favorites below firmly on upset alert in Week 3.

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Texans ML odds: +102

Both of these AFC South clubs choked in the final seconds of Week 2 losses and seek Week 3 rebounds. For Houston, this is a must-win game after dropping to 0-2 on the season. If the Texans fall to 0-3 as games at the Ravens and Seahawks loom, their season could deteriorate quickly. On top of the Texans having the bigger motivation for this contest, I don't love the way that Trevor Lawrence is playing through two weeks. Of the 34 quarterbacks who have thrown a pass so far in 2025, the Jags' starter ranks 28th in passer rating. His three interceptions are tied for second most in the league, and he has a turnover-worthy-throw rate of 4.1% (24th out of 34 quarterbacks). Houston's pass rush was able to make life difficult for Baker Mayfield, albeit in a losing effort. If it can continue to get home against Lawrence, I believe that the Texans will enjoy much better results en route to their first win of 2025.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at New England Patriots

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Patriots ML odds: +100

I believe what we saw from Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 will prove to be his 2025 season's outlier. After tossing four touchdowns in his Steelers debut, Rodgers came back down to earth with a 203-yard, one-touchdown and two-interception showing in Pittsburgh's 31-17 loss to Seattle. On the year, Rodgers has a 7.9% turnover-worthy-throw rate, which is the highest in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least one start. Beyond the quarterback questions, however, let's not overlook that the Pittsburgh defense has quietly allowed 32 and 31 points over the season's first two games -- and the special teams unit hasn't been buttoned up either. That's a long way of saying that the Steelers have lots of warts, making them a tough team to back on the road in most scenarios, including here against New England. The Patriots are another team with flaws, but they have enough talent to pull off a home win.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

• When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Soldier Field (Chicago)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Cowboys ML odds: +100

I was optimistic about the Bears entering 2025, but it took just two weeks for me to jump ship. I don't like what I've seen from Caleb Williams, as the former No. 1 overall pick still looks to be making similar mistakes that we saw in 2024 despite having Ben Johnson in his ear this year. On the year, Williams has an off-target-throw rate of 18.5%, which is the third-highest figure among quarterbacks. Beyond his deficiencies, the Bears defense just gave up 52 points to the Detroit Lions and move forward without star corner Jaylon Johnson, who is sidelined with a groin injury. That sets up Dak Prescott and the Cowboys quite well to go on the road for their second straight victory.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

• When: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
• TV: ABC, ESPN | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Lions ML odds: +220

We have a heavyweight bout and realistic Super Bowl preview on deck for Monday Night Football. Why is the spread so high? This feels like more of a field goal game, but the Lions are currently getting six points, which feels too rich. There's absolutely a world where they go to Baltimore and pull out a win. Yes, Detroit was sluggish in the opener, but I believe it is much closer to the club that we saw just drop 52 points in Week 2. The Lions are also equipped to attack what has been a beatable Ravens run defense with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. I certainly like the Lions with the points and see them coming out of Week 3 on top.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

• When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Cardinals ML odds: +102

Mac Jones was stellar in Week 2, throwing for 279 yards on a 66.6% completion rate with three touchdowns in a 26-21 win over New Orleans. Lights out. But is that sustainable? There's a reason why Jones is on his third team in as many seasons and has devolved to a backup. While the Cardinals nearly blew its Week 2 matchup against the Panthers, this defense is talented enough to give Jones fits. Meanwhile, let's not sleep on Kyler Murray, who is top 10 in the NFL in EPA per drop-back through two weeks. Murray also ranks seventh in success rate among 34 qualified quarterbacks this season.