State of the NLCS and ALCS: Biggest surprises, what each team must do and more
We are two games into both 2025 league championship series, and it's time for our initial impressions based on what we have seen on the field.
The Seattle Mariners are headed home with a 2-0 ALCS lead after downing the Toronto Blue Jays on consecutive days to start the series.
In the NLCS, the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers have jumped out to a 2-0 road advantage of their own against the Milwaukee Brewers.
What has stood out most so far -- and what's next for the World Series hopefuls? Our MLB experts weigh in.
What has surprised you most so far?
Jorge Castillo: The assumption was Seattle's pitching staff, drained after an exhausting ALDS that concluded with a 15-inning Game 5 on Friday, would need at least Sunday's ALCS opening game to reset. But Mariners pitchers did not relent. Game 1 starter Bryce Miller set the tone, rebounding from a rocky first inning to give the Mariners six crucial innings. The bullpen starred in Game 2, when Eduard Bazardo, Carlos Vargas and Emerson Hancock each tossed two scoreless innings. Tuesday's off day should only help the Mariners as the series shifts to their cavernous home ballpark.
Jeff Passan: The lack of competitive at-bats from the Blue Jays. Yes, the Mariners' pitching is very good. But the Blue Jays -- whose high-quality, work-the-count, spoil-pitches approach all season helped deliver them an AL East championship -- were practically tweaking to swing at Miller's pitches in Game 1 and weren't much better in Game 2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitless. As are Daulton Varsho, Andres Gimenez and Davis Schneider.
Four runs in two games is not going to do it against a lineup as deep as the Mariners' and with a pitching staff as susceptible as the Blue Jays' has been this postseason.
How can the Mariners close this out at home?
Castillo: Hitting home runs at T-Mobile Park isn't easy -- the Mariners hit 134 on the road and 108 at home -- but long balls are often the difference in October. Such was the case in Game 2, when the Mariners scored eight of their 10 runs on three homers -- two three-run home runs and a two-run shot.
The Blue Jays surrendered 209 home runs during the regular season -- the sixth-most allowed in the majors and the most allowed by a postseason team. If the Mariners continue hitting mistakes over the fence, the Blue Jays' chances of winning four of the next five games are slim to none.
Passan: Do not treat this as a coronation. Too much has happened in Mariners history to ever doubt that something can go very wrong. They have existed 49 years and never so much as made a World Series.
The real answer: cut down on the punchouts. The Mariners are striking out more than 30% of the time over the first two games, and it diminishes opportunities compared to Toronto, which is at 13%. Like Jorge said, as long as Seattle is hitting home runs, this might be moot. In the absence of that, though, putting the ball in play can save them.
What can the Blue Jays do to get this series back to Toronto?
Castillo: It starts with scoring more runs. The Mariners' pitching staff, tired and all, has silenced an offense that demolished Yankees pitching last week. The Blue Jays tallied only four runs in the two games in Toronto. All were scored in the first two innings. In Game 2, the Blue Jays went 1-for-28 with three walks after the second inning.
Nathan Lukes and George Springer are the only Blue Jays with multiple hits in the series. Guerrero is 0-for-7 with one walk after finishing the ALDS 9-for-17 with three home runs. Varsho is 0-for-7. Addison Barger and Andres Giménez are 0-for-6. Springer's leadoff home run in Game 1 was the only ball Toronto hit over the fence.
The Blue Jays scored 21 runs in a three-game sweep of the Mariners during the regular season. But that was at home in May, and T-Mobile Park is a pitcher's haven. It'll be a quick series if their bats don't wake up in Seattle.
Passan: Just look at Game 1 of the NLCS. The Dodgers' offense is struggling, and it really doesn't matter because Blake Snell threw eight of the most brilliant innings you'll ever see. And even though Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer, the Blue Jays' starters in Game 3 and Game 4, are not near Snell's caliber today, they are both former Cy Young winners who have pitched in huge games. Seattle's pitching is too good for Toronto to win this series via slugfests. So the Blue Jays are simply going to have to beat the Mariners at their own game: solid starting pitching and enough relief to backfill.
What has jumped out to you most so far?
Bradford Doolittle: The Dodgers' starting pitching has been lights-out. It's not just all the zeros that Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto put up; the Brewers' hitters looked overmatched against them most of the time. Milwaukee had a clear plan to ambush Yamamoto as often as possible in Game 2, but after Jackson Chourio's first-pitch leadoff homer, it just didn't work. Yamamoto kept pumping in strikes, and the Brewers did nothing with them.
Jesse Rogers: The Dodgers' starting pitching went from iffy to dominant in the blink of an eye. Part of the reason the Brewers went 6-0 against L.A. during the regular season is that they faced a team piecing together its starting staff. Dave Roberts even admitted to "slow playing" Snell just to have him ready for this moment.
Not even a first-pitch home run by Chourio off Yamamoto in Game 2 could change the narrative. Yamamoto threw a 111-pitch complete game, giving up only two more hits and a walk after that long ball. On most teams, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani would be the No. 1 and No. 2 pitchers, but the Dodgers will roll them out against Milwaukee at Dodger Stadium later this week. It's an embarrassment of riches -- and it could doom the Brewers' chances at their first World Series title.
What do the Dodgers need to do to close out this series at home?
Bradford Doolittle: Just keep riding the wave. The L.A. rotation has become the story of the postseason so far, and even though the Dodgers' offense hasn't matched the pitchers in terms of dominance, this is the hottest team around right now. And the offense isn't going to grind this way forever.
Jesse Rogers: Just keep pitching the way they are and maybe get Ohtani going at the plate. Not that they've needed him so far, but if he starts to light it up, this series won't return to the Midwest. Closer Roki Sasaki is also likely to be more comfortable in his home setting than he was in Game 1. All signs point to the Dodgers winning a short series.
What do the Brewers need to get this series back to Milwaukee?
Bradford Doolittle: They need traffic on the bases, especially early in the games. They haven't been able to showcase their athleticism against the Dodgers because no one has been getting on base. Get on base, hope to unnerve Glasnow and Ohtani and get into that L.A. bullpen by the fourth or fifth inning. The formula isn't complicated, but the way the Dodgers are going, executing it will be a challenge.
Jesse Rogers: Putting up a crooked number would help. Somewhere along the line, they need one of those Brewers innings -- the kind that forces the defense into mistakes while utilizing their speed and ability on the basepaths to create havoc. Easier said than done against this Dodgers starting staff, but if they can get into the underbelly of L.A.'s bullpen, they have a chance. That's the path forward for the Brewers.
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