SEC predicted order of finish 2025-26: Auburn, Texas overrated; Arkansas underrated in preseason poll

The SEC released its preseason predicted order of finish on Monday ahead of the 2025-26 college basketball season. Reigning national champion Florida was picked to win the league in the annual preseason poll. Meanwhile, Kentucky's Otega Oweh was given conference Player of the Year honors after deciding to skip the 2025 NBA Draft and return to school.

Florida is coming off a dominant season en route to a national title and returns two starters (Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu) from that team. Despite losing All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr. to the NBA, the Gators were able to load up in the transfer portal to replace him by adding Boogie Fland from Arkansas and Xaivian Lee from Princeton.

AP Top 25 poll reactions: North Carolina overrated, Kansas underrated in preseason college basketball rankings

Kentucky, under second-year coach Mark Pope, was picked to finish second in the poll. Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas rounded out the top five. Auburn, a program that saw coach Bruce Pearl retire just weeks before the season began, was picked to finish sixth after reaching the Final Four for the second time in program history.

Here is the full poll, followed by overrated and underrated observations from the predicted order of finish.

Predicted finish: 6

Auburn lost a significant portion of its production from a team that reached the Final Four and was ranked No. 1 in the polls for several weeks. The Tigers made several key additions in the transfer portal -- such as Keyshawn Hall (UCF), KeShawn Murphy (Mississippi State) and Kevin Overton (Texas Tech). Still, it wouldn't be surprising if Auburn took a step back under first-year coach Steven Pearl and finished worse than sixth in the conference.

The counterpoint for the Tigers -- and why the program could still compete at the top of the SEC -- is the play of returning guard Tahaad Pettiford. After bypassing the NBA Draft to return to school, Pettiford is firmly in the mix for SEC Player of the Year and is a potential All-American candidate. The play from Pettiford will determine Auburn's ceiling.

Predicted finish: 5

In our overrated/underrated picks from the preseason AP Top 25 poll, I labeled Arkansas as the latter heading into the season. The Razorbacks under coach John Calipari have a mix of talent and continuity that should help the program get off to a better start to SEC play than last season.

I think fifth in the preseason SEC poll is fair, but the ceiling of this Arkansas team is competing for the conference regular season title heading into the final weeks of the season. The returning experience, coupled with the newcomers on the roster, makes Calipari's squad a threat to play deep into March and outperform its preseason billing.

Predicted finish: 9

It's a new era at Texas as coach Sean Miller is taking over the program after his most recent stint at Xavier. The Longhorns are -- ironically -- coming off a loss to Xavier in the First Four this past spring and will look to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament after failing to do so the last two seasons under former coach Rodney Terry.

Tre Johnson, who was one of the most prolific scorers in the country last season as a freshman, isn't walking through the door. The Longhorns still have plenty of talent in the backcourt, such as Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark, and Simeon Wilcher. However, there are still questions about whether those players are a fit together in the starting lineup. It wouldn't be surprising to see Texas have some growing pains under Miller and finish in the bottom half of the SEC standings.

Predicted finish: 13

After losing Buzz Williams to Maryland earlier this offseason, Texas A&M went outside the box to land its next coach. The Aggies hired away Bucky McMillan -- considered a rising offensive guru in the sport -- from his post at Samford to replace Williams.

Texas A&M overhauled its roster by adding plenty of new faces, including Rylan Griffen (Kansas), Pop Isaacs (Creighton) and Mackezie Mgbako (Indiana). Mgbako, a former five-star prospect from the 2023 recruiting cycle, could thrive in a new environment after spending the last two seasons with the Hoosiers. Don't sleep on Texas A&M this year.

This may be a hot take, but I think Haugh is Florida's best player. Haugh played a huge role down the stretch during Florida's run to a national title off the bench and now will step into a more prominent starting role this season with the Gators. Haugh is a terrific offensive rebounder, can stretch the floor, and makes winning plays. His archetype is one that NBA decision-makers covet. Even hotter take: Not only will Haugh be a first-team All-SEC player at the end of the season, but he will be an All-American candidate, too.

It's hard to single out any player on this (first-team) list, but if I had to pick one, it would be Condon -- and part of the reason why is the point I made above. Haugh was Florida's second-best player at times during the NCAA Tournament, while Condon didn't have his best showing. Condon was a potential first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, but instead, he returned to school, where he hopes to raise his stock. Condon is still a good player, but this might be the year where Haugh separates himself. Florida's greatest strength is its frontcourt, and Condon and Haugh are two of the main reasons why.