Catching up on the Big 12: Power Rankings, key players, must-see games

As was the case in 2024, the Big 12 title looks to be available to nearly any team in the conference. Kenny Dillingham's Arizona State Sun Devils were notably picked in the preseason media poll to finish last in the league, and then went on to win it and take Texas to the wire in the College Football Playoff. But ASU was just one loss away from failing to even make the Big 12 title game -- four teams finished the season with seven in-conference wins. Iowa State, Colorado, and BYU hung around until the very end.

This year, Texas Tech, fresh off a massive push to bring in new talent in the offseason, will look to join the conference's elite. Utah, TCU, Baylor and Kansas might be in the mix as well. And who knows, perhaps the team we pick to finish last will be the one to end the season on top. Anything can happen in the country's most wide-open power conference.

We're here to get you caught up on the Big 12 by breaking down the conference's CFP outlook, Power Rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.

CFP outlook

Should be in: Arizona State. The Big 12 is perhaps the most unpredictable conference in the nation. Arizona State, picked to finish last at the beginning of the 2024 season, was the league's lone participant in the first 12-team Playoff. In 2025, the Sun Devils loom as the favorite, even though that's not official since the conference did away with the preseason poll. But the Sun Devils return 79 percent of their production from last season, good for 2nd best in the country. Sam Leavitt will enter the season as a Heisman candidate, especially with a healthy Jordyn Tyson on the outside, and despite the loss of RB Cam Skattebo, Army transfer Kanye Udoh should fill in nicely as a replacement.

In the running: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, Utah, Baylor, Kansas, BYU, TCU, and Colorado. As Bill Connelly pointed out in his Big 12 season preview, the top five teams in last season's preseason Big 12 media poll ended up going a combined 26-35 overall and 13-32 in conference play, while the bottom five teams in the poll went a combined 39-25 (26-19). Here, a solid case can be made for all nine of these teams to all win the conference or earn an at-large bid. There's no such thing as an easy schedule in the Big 12, and given the potential for each of these teams, there's no telling how things could shake out among this group.

Long shots: West Virginia, UCF, Oklahoma State, Houston, Cincinnati, Arizona. Given what Arizona State showed last season after going 3-9 in 2023, the teams in this category shouldn't be without hope. Scott Frost and Rich Rodriguez are hoping to bring their respective teams in UCF and West Virginia back to glory. Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State have been ranked at some point in the top 25 every season since 2008, and should rebound from the worst season of his tenure. Houston showed improvement in the second half of last season under Willie Fritz. Cincinnati has potential for continued offensive efficiency with Brendan Sorsby, and Noah Fifita's abilities will always give Arizona a shot to win games. At the very least, each of these teams is likely good for an upset or two during the season. -- Harry Lyles Jr.

Must-see games

From Bill Connelly's Big 12 conference preview

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin (Aug. 23). This might be my favorite Week 0 game yet. Not only do we get a Farmageddon matchup in just about the best dairy land in the world, but we also get one of the biggest games of the Big 12 season before Week 1 even rolls around.

TCU at Kansas State (Oct. 11). TCU and Baylor both surged in the late stages of 2024, though unlike Arizona State, they each did it when it was too late to make a mark in the conference title race. The Horned Frogs have quite a bit of reason for optimism, but by the time this Week 7 matchup is done, they'll have played at both Arizona State and K-State. A conference title run might require a win at one or the other.

Texas Tech at Arizona State (Oct. 18). The defending champ against the offseason's buzziest team. The Red Raiders took down ASU in Lubbock, Texas, last season 30-22, but it was well before the Sun Devils found fifth gear. Which team will be in proper midseason form for this one?

Texas Tech at Kansas State (Nov. 1). It appears the schedule makers decreed K-State and Tech to be the most impactful teams in this year's title race -- if they don't win it themselves, they'll decide who does.

Kansas State at Utah (Nov. 22). Another K-State game! Goodness. Utah went from title favorite to 2-7 in conference play last season, but a redesigned offense and better injury luck (and the resulting better close-games fortune) could produce a 180-degree turnaround. If so, this one could decide a spot in the title game. -- Bill Connelly

Three freshmen to watch

Julian Lewis, QB, Colorado

Lewis has been on the national radar since eighth grade and left high school with over 10,000 passing yards in just three seasons. Despite average physical measurables at 6-1, 195 pounds, Lewis' elite mechanics and excellent football knowledge allowed him to pick apart the best high school defenses in Georgia. Deion Sanders and the rest of the staff acknowledged that Lewis has the type of maturity that helps freshmen acclimate quickly in the fall. While Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter remains the starter after spring practice, Lewis sits close behind him, ready for any opportunity to lead the Buffalo offense this season. Considering Colorado's offensive history of sacks and violent hits to their quarterback in the pocket, Lewis might only be one snap away from leading the Buffs' offense in 2025.

Carde Smith, OT, Colorado

Smith doesn't necessarily need to step in right away given the veteran talent returning on Colorado's line. But at 6-5 and 290 pounds, he is a force to be reckoned with in the trenches, using his athleticism to reach defenders in the second level quickly and his strength to put them in the dirt. This spring, Smith displayed his college-level power and mental toughness, sending a message to the Colorado staff that he isn't shy about seeing the field early. Phillip Houston is expected to start at right tackle, although a serious injury suffered at the end of last season kept him out of spring practice. Smith will certainly be ready to rise to the occasion when his name is called, much like Cash Cleveland was a year ago.

Linkon Cure, TE, Kansas State

Performing at a high level during spring practice as a true freshman is a tall task for any recent 18-year-old graduate, even for someone like Cure, the first five-star recruit in Kansas State history. He lived up to those high expectations in a small sample size, turning in one of the best spring campaigns of any true freshman in the country. Cure solidified his physical abilities and raw athleticism, standing out in a veteran tight end room who took the freshman under their wing. Coach Chris Klieman praised of the 6-foot-5, 230-pound versatile athlete during spring practice, and K-State could use Cure in any offensive role on the perimeter. Cure's positional flexibility, elite hands and athleticism should make a significant impact on the Wildcats offense this fall, and he looks the part of a reliable target for third-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson. -- Billy Tucker

Three top transfers

These selections are based on Max Olson's ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.

David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech

Transferring from: Stanford | Top 100 rank: 9

HT: 6-3 | WT: 250 | Class: Junior

Background: Bailey entered the portal soon after Stanford fired coach Troy Taylor in late March and instantly became one of the top players available ahead of the spring portal window. The former No. 122 recruit enjoyed a breakout debut season in 2022, earning Freshman All-America honors, and led the Cardinal in tackles for loss in each of his three seasons with the program. Bailey has produced 111 career tackles, 81 pressures, 22.5 TFLs and 14.5 sacks and has an opportunity to become an early-round NFL draft pick if he can put together a strong senior season. -- Olson

Scout's take: Bailey is a disruptive presence as an edge defender and one of the more explosive outside linebackers in college football. He's not the biggest or longest, but he's super strong, compact and plays with excellent leverage. Bailey uses great speed-to-power, which can shock and shed bigger tackles on his pursuit to the QB. He can also bend and rip the corner with clean, fluid movements. Bailey flashes excellent closing speed to chase down perimeter runs and has quick upfield burst to disrupt plays before they develop. Bailey can hold up in coverage, but it is not his strongest trait. His best asset might be an intense motor: Bailey plays the game on high octane. -- Tucker

What he brings to Texas Tech: The Red Raiders were among the biggest spenders of the December portal period and have spared no expense in upgrading at edge rusher with Bailey and Georgia Tech transfer Romello Height. They viewed Bailey as one of the best returning defensive players in the country, beat Texas and UCLA for his pledge and immediately brought him in for spring practice. Texas Tech has assembled one of the most talented defensive lines in the country with NFL-caliber talent and strong depth. All these moves have made the Red Raiders the clear Big 12 front-runner for 2025. -- Olson

Howard Sampson, OT, Texas Tech

Transferring from: North Carolina | Top 100 rank: 18

HT: 6-8 | WT: 325 | Class: Redshirt sophomore

Background: New coach Bill Belichick managed to get several UNC starters to withdraw from the portal and stay with the program, but the new regime was not able to hold on to Sampson. The massive former North Texas transfer started 12 games at left tackle in his first season with the Tar Heels, allowed just one sack in conference play and picked up honorable mention All-ACC recognition. Sampson has the size and talent to develop into an early-round draft pick a year from now. -- Olson

Scout's take: Sampson is a mountain on the corner with a huge frame and more than adequate bend. His long reach and deceptively light feet make it difficult for defenders to win the edge. Once he gets his massive hands inside and locked on, he looks to finish and is physical in his demeanor. Sampson can still get into trouble when his pads get high and he overextends. He's at his best riding defenders outside the pocket utilizing his quick kick and punch. Sampson still needs some refinement but has first-round size and feet to develop. -- Tucker

What he brings to Texas Tech: The Humble, Texas, native is coming home to join a Texas Tech squad that is absolutely loading up to chase a Big 12 championship in 2025. The Red Raiders had a big need at tackle with super senior right tackle Caleb Rogers graduating and left tackle Ty Buchanan transferring to Arizona, and they succeeded in locking up one of the best on the market. -- Olson

Lee Hunter, DT, Texas Tech

Transferring from: UCF | Top 100 rank: 19

HT: 6-4 | WT: 320 | Class: Redshirt junior

Background: The defensive lineman was the No. 60 player in the 2021 ESPN 300 and redshirted during his lone season at Auburn before transferring to reunite with Gus Malzahn in Orlando. Hunter developed into a force in the middle of the Knights' front over his three years in the program and has racked up a combined 20.5 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. In 2024, he earned second-team All-Big 12 honors and finished with the best pressure rate (8.6%) among all Big 12 defensive tackles, according to ESPN Research. -- Olson

Scout's take: Hunter can control the middle of the defense. He's not just a big-bodied D-lineman who forces double-teams; he's a disrupter with good initial burst to penetrate and create problems for opposing offenses. He played snaps at tight end in high school and flashes quick feet at 320 pounds, splitting the double-team and chasing plays down the line of scrimmage. Hunter does a really good job using his hands to keep separation as a pass rusher and has the explosive power to consistently win one-on-one blocks and collapse the pocket. His ability to play in a two-gap or shade scheme adds to his value. -- Tucker

What he brings to Texas Tech: Hunter was scheduled to take an official visit to Texas after his trip to Lubbock. The Red Raiders weren't going to let that happen and got a deal done to add him to their growing portal class. New Texas Tech DC Shiel Wood adds one of the Big 12's best returning D-linemen and can expect him to make a significant impact in the middle of the defense. -- Olson

Numbers to know

5: Five different teams have won the Big 12 championship over the past five years. No other power conference has had more than three different teams win its title in that span.

2: There are two new coaches in the Big 12 -- and both are back for their second stint. Scott Frost returns to UCF after leading the Knights to a 13-0 mark in 2017, then moving on to Nebraska; Rich Rodriguez rejoins West Virginia, where he won 60 games over seven seasons, after leaving in 2007 to take over at Michigan.

+550: The odds of Kansas State winning the Big 12 title, the longest odds for a power conference favorite since at least 2008. - ESPN Research

Power Rankings

1. Arizona State

The Sun Devils broke through last season by doing what coaches say is the hardest thing to do: learning how to win. After a blowout in the opener against Wyoming, ASU's next five games were all decided by eight points or less, as they went 4-1 over that span, with just a loss to Texas Tech in Lubbock. Their season ended in a heartbreaking 39-31 double-overtime loss to Texas in the College Football Playoff, which only gave them even more confidence since they stood toe-to-toe with a team that is likely the national championship favorites this year. The Sun Devils lost Cam Skattebo to the NFL, but are returning nearly everyone else.

2. Texas Tech

Behren Morton is back at QB, and he's got a lot of new friends, thanks to Tech's aggressive offseason, one of the biggest stories of the past few months, as Joey McGuire made waves in Lubbock with a war chest thanks to the Red Raiders' collective. The result was one of the country's top-ranked portal classes, which included preseason all-Big 12 defensive linemen David Bailey and Lee Hunter. McGuire welcomed two new coordinators, including Mack Leftwich from Texas State. Shiel Wood will take over the defense after doing an impressive job in one season at Houston. He'll have a big piece of the puzzle in place with Jacob Rodriguez, the preseason Big 12 defensive player of the year, returning at linebacker.

3. Kansas State

The Wildcats are one of the Big 12's most consistent programs, and Chris Klieman always makes playing them a challenge. After opening the season in Ireland against Iowa State, K-State gets two of the tougher teams on its schedule, TCU and Texas Tech at home. Austin Romaine (96 tackles) returns at linebacker to QB the defense, and if Avery Johnson lives up to expectations along with a strong backfield, the Wildcats could return to the Big 12 championship game.

4. TCU

The Frogs will have to navigate one of the trickier Big 12 schedules, including road trips to Arizona State, Kansas State and BYU. Out of conference, they'll face a wild media circus for the opener at North Carolina in Bill Belichick's debut. But the Frogs will once again have a strong offense with Josh Hoover (3,949 yards, 27 TDs last year) returning and a defense that improved in the second half last year under first-year coordinator Andy Avalos.

5. Utah

The Utes, one of the most consistent programs in the country under Kyle Whittingham, stumbled to a 5-7 season in Year 1 in the Big 12 after injuries and struggles at quarterback. They responded by hiring New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck, who brought in his starter, Devon Dampier, a true dual threat who rushed for 1,166 yards and 19 TDs while throwing for 2,768. Trusting Whittingham's defense isn't hard, but adding five transfers at wide receiver along with a new offense will be the key to how far this Utes team can go.

6. Baylor

One of last season's bounce-back stories, the Bears lost to their first four Power 4 opponents, beginning 2-4 and then reeled off six straight wins to close the season before a loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl to save Dave Aranda's job. Offensive coordinator Jake Spavital found his starting quarterback, Sawyer Robertson, and running back, Bryson Washington, in the process, and both return along with a strong offensive unit. Robertson's emergence makes the Bears a dark-horse contender.

7. Iowa State

Doubt Matt Campbell at our own peril. Last season, he led the Cyclones to their first 11-win season in school history and a No. 15 finish. Rocco Becht returns at quarterback after throwing for 3,505 yards with 25 TDs. But his two star receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, are gone. The schedule is manageable, though there's Farmageddon in Ireland, the Cy-Hawk visit to Iowa and trips to Colorado and TCU to handle.

8. BYU

The Cougars stormed to an 11-win season and an Alamo Bowl victory, including a nonconference win over future CFP team SMU, and lost its only two games, to Kansas and Arizona State in consecutive weeks, by a combined nine points. An offseason controversy around quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who was accused of sexual assault in a civil lawsuit, which was later dismissed, then faced a BYU Honor Code suspension, led to his transfer to Tulane. As a result, the Cougars are looking to choose a new starter from the trio of Treyson Bourguet, McCae Hillstead and Bear Bachmeier. The Cougars also have to replace a significant amount of starts on both the offensive and defensive lines.

9. Kansas

Jalon Daniels returns for hopefully an injury-free year to finish a Kansas career full of tantalizing potential and frustrating injuries. Lance Leipold has done incredible work to build the Jayhawks into winners, and even last year's 5-7 record included three consecutive wins over ranked teams. But Kansas replaced both coordinators this offseason and has an inexperienced defense. Replacing Devin Neal's production at running back won't be easy, either.

10. Colorado

It's been quite an offseason for Deion Sanders, who revealed a few weeks ago that he'd undergone cancer treatment. That puts his football challenges in perspective, particularly in having to replace Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Senior Kaidon Salter, a transfer from Liberty, and five-star freshman Julian Lewis are vying for the quarterback job. But there's nobody that can replace Hunter. The Buffaloes have brought in more than 30 transfers to bolster the lines and add some talent at wide receiver. This will be a fascinating year in Coach Prime's rebuild.

11. Cincinnati

Brendan Sorsby (2,813 and 18 TDs, 447 yards and 9 TDs rushing) is back at quarterback, and all-everything defensive tackle Dontay Corleone is back in football shape after being sidelined with issues with blood clots that didn't allow him to practice. Those are two big pieces for Cincinnati, which won just three Big 12 games -- on against Arizona State -- but were rarely blown out. The Bearcats will try to replace Corey Kiner's productivity with Evan Pryor (418 yards, 6 TDs) and Wisconsin and Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker.

12. Houston

Willie Fritz's first year was a rebuilding one, and he's had to embark on a little bit of a makeover already, replacing offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay, who was fired before the final game last season, with his former Tulane OC Slade Nagle, and replacing Shiel Wood, who left for the same job at Texas Tech, with former Florida DC Austin Armstrong. Former five-star recruit Conner Weigman will take over at quarterback after transferring from Texas A&M. Fritz is known as a turnaround expert. After a 4-8 start, how big of a jump can the Cougars make this year?

13. Oklahoma State

Mike Gundy is the ultimate "figure-it-out" coach. But last year, nobody could figure out the Cowboys. A disastrous year, Gundy's first losing season since his first at the helm in Stillwater in 2005, led to him turning to two new experienced coordinators in Todd Grantham on defense and Doug Meacham on offense. There are transfers and new starters everywhere, including nearly every position on defense. Gundy has won 7 or more games 18 times at OSU, with only his first season and last year as the outliers. Can he figure it out this time?

14. Arizona

After winning 10 games in 2023, Jedd Fisch departed for Washington, and Brent Brennan, who'd always overachieved at San Jose State, arrived with star power on hand in quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan sticking around. But the offense sputtered, particularly the running game, and the Wildcats crashed back to a 4-8 season, including seven of their final eight, with just a win over Houston. It wasn't the season the remaining stars envisioned. McMillan became the 8th overall pick in the draft, but Fifita is still in Tucson, determined to return the Wildcats to their former status.

15. UCF

After a 4-8 season, Gus Malzahn jumped at the chance to help former assistant Mike Norvell at Florida State and become his offensive coordinator, clearing the way for UCF to reunite with former coach Scott Frost. In his last season in Orlando in 2017, Frost went 13-0. That won't happen this year, but there's not much of a way to expect how the Knights will look. They return just one starter on offense, and former Oklahoma DC Alex Grinch will be replacing most of the defense with transfers too.

16. West Virginia

Rich Rodriguez is back! So are Pat White and Noel Devine! Unfortunately, they're coaches now and can't help on the field. Still, Jahiem White gives Rodriguez star power to build around at running back, and his offensive system is sure to provide some excitement between a trio of candidates at QB in junior returner Nicco Marchiol, or transfers Jaylen Henderson or Max Brown. But with more than 50 new players on the roster, RichRod's Year 1 may be more about reigniting some nostalgia and excitement than contending. -- Dave Wilson