College football odds: Ole Miss, Illinois present opportunity as undervalued conference championship threats

The 2025 college football season is nearly upon us, and as fall camps ramp up across the country it's time to settle in on predictions for the year.

While the chase for the 12 playoff spots dominates the conversation these days, winning the conference championship remains the first goal for teams with playoff aspirations. In the Power Four conferences, making it to the title game is harder than ever. Conference expansion has gotten rid of divisions and deepened the pool of threats to make it to Atlanta, Indianapolis, Charlotte and Dallas at the end of the season.

Every year we come into the season with expectations of seeing a few favorites doing battle in those conference title games, but there are always a few shocking participants -- and sometimes title winners -- that remind us part of the joy of watching college football is the chaos that inevitably ensues.

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Last year we saw Arizona State win the Big 12 after being projected as the worst team in the conference, SMU run to the ACC title game with an undefeated regular season in its first year in the conference and Indiana shock the Big Ten by crashing the party in Indy in Curt Cignetti's first season in charge.

With that in mind, we wanted to highlight a sleeper team in each conference that sits outside the favorites tier who could make a stunning run to the conference title -- and pay big dividends for those bold enough to bet them before the season. All of these teams come with plenty of risk -- they're not the favorites for a reason -- but whether by way of talent, schedule or a combination of the two, they all present value as a team that could shake up the projected title game matchups in each of the Power Four conferences.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

In the ACC in particular it is difficult to find sleeper picks because there is such a perceived gap between the top teams and the rest of the pack. That said, recent ACC history is littered with surprise ACC title game participants -- even if the winner tends to be one of the big favorites -- and it's far from a guarantee that we get the Clemson-Miami tilt everyone projects.

Of the teams in the ACC's middle tier, I like the value on Duke the best at 25-1. I think they're much closer to Georgia Tech (12-1) than Tech is to those top teams. Manny Diaz always seems to produce strong defenses and the Blue Devils return many of their top linemen and defensive backs from last year's squad. On offense, they figure to have upgraded at quarterback with the addition of Darian Mensah, as the Blue Devils broke out their checkbooks to bring in the former Tulane QB. They added a pair of receivers in the portal and bolstered the offensive line, and if Duke can take a real step forward offensively, it can be a legitimate threat with its schedule.

Duke dodges three of the top four teams in the ACC, with a road game at playoff favorite Clemson as their toughest test by far. The Blue Devils avoid Miami, SMU and Louisville (and Florida State, for whatever that's worth), and get Georgia Tech and NC State at home. A Syracuse-Cal back-to-back could be tricky if for no other reason than the travel, but they'll have a bye before the Tech and Clemson games that are the two standouts on the schedule, before closing with a trip to rival UNC and home games against Virginia and Wake Forest.

Going 7-1 against that ACC schedule is certainly not impossible, particularly if they have a legitimately good offense this year. They were the kings of one-score games a year ago (6-1) and will hope to have fewer of those coin flips in 2025, but in terms of teams with upside and value, I think the Blue Devils have the best chance of shocking the ACC.

There's an awful lot of buzz in Champaign this year, and the Illini certainly have the schedule to make the kind of run we saw from Indiana last year. They dodge Oregon, Penn State and Michigan and get their two toughest opponents -- Ohio State and USC -- at home, with Maryland, Rutgers and Northwestern all visiting Champaign as well. They only make one substantial road trip in terms of distance -- Washington -- and that's off a bye week. Otherwise, they stay in the old Big Ten West for their road schedule with visits to Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin.

That's about as friendly as it gets in a nine-game Big Ten schedule, and opens the door for Bret Bielema's crew to back up a 10-3 year with an even better one in 2025. Aside from Penn State's Drew Allar, Luke Altmyer is the most experienced QB leading a hopeful Big Ten contender. Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and USC all have new QBs, and while Altmyer didn't light the world on fire in 2024, he's a capable, competent starter who makes few mistakes.

The concern for Illinois' offense is what it lost at the skill positions, namely its top receivers in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. They accounted for two-thirds of the Illini receiving yards a year ago, and replacing them won't be easy. However, the offensive line returns almost fully intact and that's the group Bielema will lean on, along with Altmyer, to control the tempo of games.

On defense they return a bunch of talent, led by Gabe Jacas and Xavier Scott, and should be a stout defensive team once again. The challenge in the Big Ten is that being a one-loss team isn't even a guarantee you make the conference title game now that there are 18 teams, but Illinois certainly could pull off an 8-1 campaign in conference if the defense stays at an elite level and give themselves a chance at making it to Indy.

The co-favorites in the Big 12 are 13/2, as it remains the nation's most wide-open conference. We saw just how chaotic the Big 12 can be last year, and bettors can dream of hitting another long-shot conference champion selection in 2025.

Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism about BYU is its schedule. The Cougars dodge four of the five top projected teams in the conference, and get rival Utah at home for the Holy War. Road games at Iowa State and Texas Tech will present a stiff challenge, but those come in the second half of the season when they should be under solid footing offensively with their new quarterback. Their other road trips are to Colorado, Arizona and Cincinnati, with West Virginia, TCU and UCF all coming to Provo.

The uncertainty at quarterback after the departure of Jake Retzlaff is obviously the top concern with the Cougars. They have an entirely new quarterback room and all three options come with questions, but BYU brings back its leading receiver and rusher from last year to help out and the programs seems to always boast a stout offensive line.

On the defensive side of the ball, they were among the Big 12's best a year ago. Led by returning linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly, the Cougars defense should be one of the toughest in the Big 12 again in 2025, which can help ease the pressure on a new quarterback. With Retzlaff, this would be a team much higher in the Big 12 title odds, and while losing him is a big deal I don't think it entirely precludes them from being a threat to make it to Dallas in November.

The Rebels will need Austin Simmons to live up to the hype if they're going to make it to Atlanta, but he'll have some runway to get comfortable. Ole Miss has one road game in its first six games, and that's at Kentucky (which, we must note, they lost to at home last year). LSU at home in Week 5 will be their first major test, but by that point Simmons should be settled into his role.

A road back-to-back at Georgia and Oklahoma looms large, but they get South Carolina and Florida at home before heading to Starkville for the Egg Bowl to close out the regular season. There's a path to 11-1 in there for the Rebels and they miss Texas and Alabama. It's not an easy schedule, but they get three of their toughest games at home and if they can knock off LSU early, they'll have a lot of confidence going into the second half of the season.

There's plenty of turnover on the Ole Miss roster as it had to hit the portal hard once again, but there's still a ton of talent and we've seen Lane Kiffin and this coaching staff get the Rebels up to speed quickly in the past. Also, a tougher schedule might bode well for the Rebels, as the real challenge for Ole Miss last year was avoiding letdowns. They get up for top competition -- see last year's Georgia game -- but have to avoid sleepwalking into games against teams like Kentucky and Arkansas.