China is strangling the dollar, but what is holding back the Polish stock market?

• Big Talks is a new format in WNP , in which Hubert Bigdowski, editor-in-chief of WNP Finanse, talks to personalities from the world of business, economy and financial markets.
• The guest of the fourth episode was Michał Szymański, president of the management board of VIG/C Quadrat TFI, which manages assets worth over PLN 860 million.
• We talked about, among other things, current trends determining market behavior, the potential and pain points of the Polish stock exchange, the technological gap, the future of open pension funds, and the reasons for China's sell-off of dollar reserves.

We asked our guest, among other things, why the acquisition of the Vienna Stock Exchange failed almost a decade ago, while in 2022 the WSE acquired a majority stake in the Armenian stock exchange . With this investment, three years later, the question arises: what has this acquisition given us?

A technological gap on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Poor performance compared to the region.

"When it comes to the share of technology on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, there's unfortunately a problem. They're present in trace amounts, despite the fact that GDP per capita (per capita - editor's note) in Poland is higher than the regional average. So, theoretically, the representation of new technologies should be higher here, but it is lower. Unfortunately, this is due, among other things, to regulatory burdens on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the structure of the Polish stock exchange, which, in the case of the WIG20, is dominated by state-owned companies," points out Michał Szymański.

Our interlocutor also attempted to estimate how much – in nominal terms – the value of assets accumulated in Open Pension Funds will decline over the next 15 years.

We also sought answers to the question: what lies behind the continuing strength of the Polish banking sector? Which sectors – given the technological gap that plagues us – will investors be targeting on the Warsaw Stock Exchange? And what needs to be done to ensure that our domestic capital market finally effectively finances the Polish economy. We discuss this and many other market aspects in the following material:

Market Excitement and China's Sell-Off of Dollar Reserves

There were also observations on the current state of the markets. According to Michał Szymański, financial markets are currently very enthusiastic, interest rates are falling, and economies seem relatively immune to shocks. However, the question arises: does market reality differ too significantly from economic theory?

We've also devoted considerable attention to the US dollar. Nearly all assets worldwide are rising, while the dollar's exchange rate is steadily declining, despite the US economy's relatively healthy performance. Where is the dollar's bottom? What's causing the dollar's weak performance?

"The management of foreign exchange reserves by central banks is crucial, especially those that are—or may be—in a strategic dispute with the US. An example is China, which is systematically reducing the share of the dollar in its reserves. In 2024 alone, a Chinese bank reduced its investments in US Treasury securities by $80 billion ," points out the president of VIG/C Quadrat TFI.

Big Talks is a new format on WNP, in which Hubert Bigdowski, managing editor of WNP Finanse, talks with personalities from the world of business, economics, and financial markets. Premieres every other Sunday at 6:00 PM on WNP.