ASML looks to calm fears over 2026 growth as it warns of China sales decline

Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML on Wednesday looked to calm concerns over 2026 growth as it warned that it expects a "significant" sales decline in China.

The firm said it does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025 and added that it will provide more details on its outlook in January.

Guidance was key for the firm after shares sank in July when it warned that it could not confirm growth in 2026 due to increasing macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The company continues to benefit from the AI boom with investments helping fuel orders of 5.4 billion euros ($6.28 billion) in the third quarter. However, CEO Christophe Fouquet warned on Wednesday that the firm expects customer demand and sales in China to decline significantly next year compared to 2024 and 2025.

"Strong news" about committment to AI has helped reduce some of the ongoing uncertanties that the company flagged in the previous quarter," Fouquet said in video transcript published Wednesday.

"We also see that AI could create a lot of value in our products moving forward. So we continue to see a very strong opportunity on our technology roadmap," the CEO added.

ASML, which recently became the most valuable listed firm in Europe, is among the companies in the semiconductor industry which have been impacted by tightening U.S. chip export restrictions to China and U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs on the sector since he took office.

Here's how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the third quarter:

• Net sales: 7.516 billion euros versus 7.79 billion euros expected
• Net profit: 2.125 billion euros vs 2.11 billion euros expected

Analysts have recently been bullish on the chip giant with Morgan Stanley, UBS and Jefferies among the banks upgrading the stock. Morgan Stanley analysts said the expansion of AI chip foundries and an increase in semiconductor chip manufacturing in China were expected to drive growth. Meanwhile, ahead of the earnings release, UBS pointed to better-than-expected smartphone and PC sales and AI-led memory growth.

ASML is also expected to benefit from Nvidia and Intel's $5 billion deal as semiconductor equipment demand increases.