How do British tourism professionals see the 2026 season?

The UK tourism sector, poised to close out 2025 successfully, has mixed expectations for the 2026 season . Some say there will be a decline, others say there will be an increase, and others say the 2025 levels will be maintained.

Barrhead Travel General Manager Nicki Tempest-Mitchell announced at the company's annual conference in Dubrovnik that they have recorded 10 percent growth compared to 2024. Three-quarters of Barrhead 's affiliated agencies are experiencing their best year in history, with 2026 sales projected to be up 16 percent compared to last year.

InteleTravel announced at its conference in Porto that UK and Ireland sales will exceed £245 million this year. CEO James Ferrara reported growth of over 50% compared to last year.

Carnival Corporation reported its tenth consecutive quarter of record revenue, generating $1.9 billion in net profit for the three months ending August. The company raised its annual profit forecast for the third time this year.

Market share is growing

Package tour sales in the UK surpassed the pre-pandemic level of 26.3 million in 2019, reaching 30 million in 2023 and 31.6 million as of March. The Atoll's capacity for this year is over 34 million. In contrast, UK air passenger traffic has only recently returned to 2019 levels. This suggests that package tour operators are benefiting not only from overall travel demand but also from increased market share.

Cautious expectations: Has the peak been reached?

Despite this, there are concerns that the sector has reached peak growth. On the Beach 's profit warning last week and its decision to close its Classic Collection brand, coupled with a similar warning from Jet2 at the beginning of the month, have led to comments that momentum is slowing.

Martin Alcock, Director of Travel Trade Consultancy , described 2025 as the “high water mark” and “peak year for package tourism” at the Future of Travel conference in September.

Dame Irene Hays, owner of Hays Travel , stated at the same conference that they are preparing to announce "double-digit" growth in annual results. However, she added a note of caution, saying, "July was tough, August started very badly."

Mixed views on 2026

Suppliers are expecting a strong surge in bookings in January. Ruth Venn, vice president of sales and distribution at P&O Cruises , described January 2025 as the company's "best sales period," and predicted that 2026 will be even better.

Wendy Wu, founder of Wendy Wu Tours, argued that "2026 will be an explosive peak." John Sullivan, commercial director of Advantage Travel Partnership, also announced that revenue for the year was up 12 percent, the average booking size was up 9 percent, and demand remained strong.

In contrast, Alan Bowen, consultant at Atol Companies , said, "This year has been good, but not as good as 2024 and 2023. Long-haul tours, in particular, haven't been very promising." Bowen argued that there was an "overabundance of holiday products" in the market, adding, "We're very close to the peak, perhaps even reached it." He also warned that the budget decisions on November 26th could negatively impact demand.

Deben Travel General Manager Lee Hunt commented, "We've seen a significant increase in package tour sales with brands customers already know. We're probably experiencing a peak wave, and a plateau may follow."