Global markets are trending positively as expectations for a Fed rate cut grow.

Concerns persist that the tariffs implemented by the US administration will not only suppress global growth but also increase inflationary risks.

Inflation data released yesterday in the country indicated that consumer price increases are accelerating. The moderate pace of this acceleration and the persistence of risks to the workforce have reinforced expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates more than expected.

Rising expectations for a broader path of interest rate cuts from the Fed increased investor appetite, while indices on the New York Stock Exchange closed at record levels.

The country's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4 percent month-over-month in August, exceeding expectations, and by 2.9 percent year-over-year. Annual inflation reached its highest level since January.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased by 0.3 percent monthly and 3.1 percent annually in August, as in July, in line with expectations.

The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week ending September 6. Applications for unemployment benefits, which exceeded expectations, reached their highest level since October 2021.

Analysts said that inflation concerns remain alive in the US, but the weakening trend in the labor market has pushed the Fed closer to interest rate cuts.

Analysts noted that the Fed is almost certain to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points next week, and that expectations are growing that the bank will cut interest rates a total of three times by the end of the year.

Analysts said that the inflation data released yesterday was not alarming enough to disrupt the expected interest rate cuts from the Fed.

Meanwhile, the process continues regarding US President Donald Trump's attempt to remove Fed Board Member Lisa Cook. Yesterday, the US administration filed an appeals court to halt a lower court ruling blocking Trump's dismissal of Cook.

The application, which sought to have the lower court's decision allowing Cook to remain in office stayed pending appeal, asked the court to rule on the request by September 15.

Analysts pointed to the Fed's monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, noting that Cook will be able to attend and vote as long as the lower court's decision remains in effect.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spokesperson Julie Kozack also stated at a press conference that there is room for the Fed to begin lowering its policy rate, given the downside risks to employment.

Meanwhile, the federal government's budget deficit in August fell by 9 percent compared to the same month last year, falling to $345 billion, partly due to tariff revenues.

It is noteworthy that revenue from customs duties in August increased by 296 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching $30 billion.

Geopolitical developments are also being monitored alongside economic data. Responding to questions from the press about current events, Trump stated, "There may have been a mistake," regarding the Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) violating Polish airspace.

Rising expectations of easing interest rates from the Fed continue to influence bond markets and gold prices. Yesterday, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 3.99%, falling below 4% for the first time since April 7. The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.03%.

After breaking consecutive records, the price of gold per ounce ended yesterday lower due to increased selling pressure, but it maintained its upward trend. The price of gold per ounce rose 0.5 percent to $3,653. The dollar index rose 0.1 percent to 97.6.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude is currently trading at $65.6, down 0.7 percent.

On the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.85 percent, the Nasdaq index gained 0.72 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.36 percent. All three indexes reached all-time closing highs. Index futures contracts in the US opened the day on a negative note.

While European stock markets were trading with buyers yesterday, investors are focusing on August inflation data to be released in Germany today.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its three main policy rates unchanged. It decided to keep the deposit rate at 2%, the refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal borrowing rate at 2.40%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation in the Eurozone is at desired levels. Lagarde pointed out that the disinflationary period has ended and explained that the inflation outlook remains uncertain due to the volatile global trade policy environment.

Lagarde said she expected higher tariffs, a stronger euro and increased global competition to slow eurozone growth for the rest of the year, but that the impact of these negative factors on growth would lessen next year.

Lagarde noted that geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine War and the conflict in the Middle East, continue to be a source of serious uncertainty, and explained that if geopolitical tensions ease or remaining trade disputes are resolved quickly, confidence will increase and economies will be further revived.

Analysts said that from now on, the ECB may end its monetary easing cycle, and in the event of a possible interest rate cut, this could happen in December rather than October.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK gained 0.78 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.89 percent, the DAX 40 in Germany gained 0.30 percent, and the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.80 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe opened the day positively, except for the CAC 40 index.

While a positive outlook was observed in Asia, risk appetite in the US side moved to the region on the new trading day.

The trade agreement between the US and Japan and increasing expectations for the Fed's easing influenced regional markets, while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose to record levels.

According to regional data, industrial production in Japan fell by 1.2 percent month-over-month in July, exceeding expectations. The country's capacity utilization rate also fell by 1.1 percent during the same period.

With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 1 percent, the Shanghai Composite index in China rose 0.2 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 1.5 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea rose 1.4 percent near the close.

Following a sell-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index on the Borsa Istanbul closed the day at 10,382.89 points, losing 1.92 percent. The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) fell 0.1 percent in yesterday evening's session compared to the regular session close.

All eyes in the country today turned to balance of payments data. AA Finans's expectations survey regarding the July 2025 Balance of Payments data concluded with the participation of 15 economists.

According to the survey, economists projected a current account surplus of $1.56 billion in July. Economists' current account surplus expectations for the period ranged from $930 million to $2.055 billion. They projected the current account deficit to reach $20.167 billion in 2025.

Meanwhile, yesterday, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the one-week repo auction rate, the policy rate, by 250 basis points to 40.5%. The Central Bank also lowered the overnight lending rate from 46% to 43.5% and the overnight borrowing rate from 41.52% to 39%.

In addition, the CBRT's total reserves reached an all-time high of $180 billion 107 million in the week of September 5, an increase of $1 billion 750 million compared to the previous week.

USD/TRY closed at 41.3240 yesterday, up 0.1 percent, and is trading at 41.3650 today, 0.1 percent above its previous close at the opening of the interbank market.

Analysts stated that the current account balance and market participant survey will be monitored domestically today, while the foreign trade balance and industrial production in the UK and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US will be monitored abroad. They noted that from a technical perspective, the 10,300 and 10,200 levels in the BIST 100 index are support levels, while 10,500 and 10,600 points are resistance levels.

Here are the data to follow in the markets today:

09.00 UK, July industrial production

09.00 UK, July foreign trade balance

09.00 Germany, August Consumer Price Index (CPI)

10:00 Türkiye, July current account balance

10.00 Türkiye, September market participant survey

17.00 US, September University of Michigan consumer confidence index