Lula's reelection gains momentum amid Trump's 'tariff hike,' says Quaest

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (Workers' Party) likely bid for a second term gained momentum following Donald Trump's "tariff hike" and the administration's response to the US president's measure . This is according to an election poll released Thursday, the 17th, by the Quaest consultancy in partnership with Genial Investimentos.

The fluctuations – almost always positive for Lula and negative for potential Bolsonaro candidates – are attributed by Quaest director Felipe Nunes to the open conflict after Trump decided to punish Brazil by claiming to protect Bolsonaro .

Another survey conducted by Quaest and released on Wednesday 16th shows that the episode helped to recover Lula's popularity, which was falling.

Scenarios for 2026

According to the research released this Thursday, Lula remains the leader in all scenarios tested for the first round. Despite being ineligible, Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears to be the closest candidate to the PT candidate: in a dispute between the two, Lula would have 32%, compared to the former captain's 26%.

Lula's advantages are greater in the disputes against Michelle Bolsonaro (30% to 19%), Tarcísio de Freitas (32% to 15%) and Eduardo Bolsonaro (31% to 15%). Ciro Gomes (PDT) is in third place in all scenarios.

In the second round polls, Lula now has better numbers than in the previous poll conducted by Quaest (in May). Against Bolsonaro, there was a tie (41% each). Now, Lula has the advantage: 43% to 37%.

Walking a tightrope since Trump's announcement on the 9th, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) has also lost traction, according to the poll: he was one percentage point behind Lula in May. Now he's four (that is, at the limit of the margin of error, which is two percentage points, either way).

According to the survey, Lula would win the second round with comfortable advantages against Michelle Bolsonaro (43% to 36%); Ratinho Júnior (41% to 36%); Eduardo Bolsonaro (43% to 33%); Romeu Zema (42% to 33%) and Ronaldo Caiado (42% to 33%).

"Taken together, these results show the floor and ceiling for each political group at this point. While Lula's support ranges from 30% in first-round simulations to 43% in second-round simulations, Bolsonarism's support ranges from 15% in first-round simulations to 37% in second-round simulations," noted Felipe Nunes.

Quaest interviewed 2,004 people between July 10 and 14, in face-to-face interviews conducted in 120 Brazilian cities.