July inflation still above 3%. We know what saw the biggest price increases.

Although annual CPI inflation slowed down significantly in July, it is still prices of many consumer goods have been rising at an unacceptably fast pace - according to from the latest data from the Central Statistical Office. The decline in CPI inflation is primarily due to base effect and cheaper fuels.

In July 2025, the commodity price index and consumer services (CPI) was 3.1% higher compared to the same period month of last year - the Central Statistical Office reported. This way the so-called was confirmed Flash estimate published two weeks ago . Reading at 3.1% most economists also expected it, but before the preliminary data they collectively bet on a result below 3%.

Compared to June, the consumer goods basket (CPI) increased by 0.3%. That's quite a lot for July, which in "normal" times often brought even monthly decline in CPI caused by seasonal reductions in fruit and vegetable prices. Prices of services increased by as much as 1.0% month-on-month.

April and May, on the other hand, were the months in which the descent from inflationary "plateau" lasting since the autumn of last year, when the annual CPI dynamics ranged from 4.7% to 5.0%. Throughout the first quarter, CPI inflation was at 4.9%. In April it dropped to 4.3%, and in May the consumer price index dropped to 4% . In June, CPI inflation rose to 4.1%.

However, due to the expiration of base effects (i.e. last year's electricity and gas tariff increases) the annual CPI dynamics in July was the lowest in over year and was within the range of permissible fluctuations from the 2.5 percent target National Bank of Poland.

Let us not forget, however, that CPI inflation is expected to continue to decline slowly in the coming months. aiming for the 2.5 percent target of the National Bank of Poland. However, it is worth remember that for only 4 of For the previous 69 months, CPI inflation remained within this target. As a result, the NBP inflation target was permanently exceeded and This applies both in the medium and long term. Average (geometric) inflation CPI for the last 5 years was 7.48%, for 10 years it was 4.42%, and for 20 years stood at 3.33%.

According to the Central Statistical Office, the average annual CPI inflation for 2024 was 3.6%. This is still too much, but also significantly less than in previous years. Results for the year In 2023 it was 11.4%, in 2022 the average annual inflation was 14.4%, and in 2021 year 5.1%.

Today, government statisticians presented detailed data on price increases in individual categories of consumer goods. And so prices goods increased by 1.9%, while prices of services increased by as much as 6.2%. The latter result is clearly inconsistent with the NBP's 2.5% inflation target.

A very high price increase was also recorded in the "beverages" category. alcohol and tobacco products”, which were as much as 6.5% more expensive than a year ago. We "owe" this result to another increase in excise duty, the increase of which somehow there are no problems (unlike, for example, the thresholds in the personal income tax). Counting in On an annual basis, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to rise rapidly (4.9% y/y), but prices in July were 0.6% lower than in June. Year-on-year, we still see the effects last year's increase in VAT on food products (from 0% to 5%).

We saw unexpectedly high price dynamics in the "use" category apartment or house", where an increase of 0.9% month-on-month and 4.4% year-on-year was recorded. Traditionally “Health” remained the inflation-sensitive category, with rates rising by 0.4% month-on-month and 4.7% y/y.

The prices of services increased dramatically educational costs, for which you had to pay as much as 8.6% more than before year (and 0.7% more than in June). High dynamics was still visible prices in the HoReCa sector, which is so generously subsidized by KPO. Prices of restaurants and hotels in July increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.8% y/y. There was also a monthly increase in prices of recreation and culture (by 2.3% month-on-month!) with the annual price dynamics in this segment amounting to 3.4%. A lot – because Prices in the "communications" category rose 4.1% year-on-year. Prices in the "other goods and services" category rose went up by 0.5% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year.

However, there were also categories in which, according to the Central Statistical Office calculations, prices were lower on average than a year earlier. This mainly concerned transport (-4.6% y/y), which was the result of the global decline in fuel prices. Traditionally, in According to Gusowski's report, clothing and footwear prices have become cheaper (by 1.3% year-on-year and by as much as 3% month-on-month). Furnishing and running an apartment was cheaper than a year ago (by 0.4%) household.

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