Increased oil production won't lower crude oil prices. Drivers will pay more for diesel fuel this fall.

August is the third consecutive month in which eight OPEC+ countries have increased their supply of crude oil to the global market; September will see another increase. OPEC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, are attempting to regain market share lost due to production cuts from 2022, primarily to American producers. However, a decline in oil prices is not expected, as demand is expected to be high, and the availability of crude from Russia remains in question. This does not change the fact that fuel prices at the pump typically rise in the fall, with diesel prices expected to be the most affected.

"Given the complexity of all the factors, which are highly uncertain because they are determined more by geopolitics than fundamentals, it's difficult to predict which direction oil prices will take," Urszula Cieślak, director of the Forecasts and Analysis Department at Reflex, told the Newseria news agency. "Let's remember that OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing oil production, with another production increase scheduled for September, and increased oil supplies should guarantee that we maintain supply to meet the demand for crude oil."

OPEC+ countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—decided in early August to increase global oil supplies by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September. This will be the fourth consecutive month of supply increases after three years of self-imposed limits imposed by producers to stem oil price declines. In June and July, production by the cartel and its allies increased by 411,000 barrels per day, and by 547,000 in August. "The withdrawal of additional voluntary production adjustments may be suspended or reversed depending on changing market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue supporting oil market stability," OPEC stated in a statement following its last meeting.

The Director of the Forecasts and Analysis Department at Refleks reminds that the end of the production cut cycle for eight producers associated with OPEC+ from the amount of 2.2 million barrels does not mean that the main oil-producing countries associated with the OPEC organization will restore their original limits, as they still produce over 3.5 million barrels less than in 2022.

"OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production again from September won't have a significant impact on crude oil prices. Increased supplies will likely occur during a period when, on the other hand, sanctions may be imposed on countries that purchase crude oil from Russia. Therefore, the decision itself, which was announced on August 3rd, may not have a significant impact on the global crude oil market," explains Urszula Cieślak. "A factor that could negatively impact crude oil prices is the return of unrest in the Middle East and the question of how real the threat of an interruption in the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz is."

In mid-2022, the price of a barrel of WTI (Texas) crude oil exceeded $120 per barrel. However, it then began to decline rapidly due to concerns about a global economic slowdown. Among other things, the effects of China's "zero COVID" policy, which Beijing only abandoned at the turn of 2022 and 2023, became apparent. By then, however, the price per barrel of crude was already more than a third lower than it had been a few months earlier. Therefore, in October 2022, OPEC decided to curtail production.

Oil prices in recent years are driven by many factors, primarily geopolitical tensions and, earlier, the pandemic. For example, oil prices spiked in June 2025 when tensions in the Middle East escalated following the 12-day war between Iraq and Israel, Israel bombed Iraq's oil facilities, and Iraq threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The price then jumped by over $10 per barrel in a matter of days, reaching around $75. It also rose slightly in the second half of July, when Donald Trump threatened the EU and Mexico with 30% tariffs.

"The recent news from the United States that President Trump is threatening countries buying crude oil with 100% tariffs doesn't necessarily mean major market turmoil. First, such a decision must be implemented," says the Director of Forecasts and Analysis at Reflex. "I think that until such a decision is announced, nothing major will happen, and countries won't stop buying Russian oil, although let's remember that state-owned Indian refineries have already reduced their purchases of Russian oil, while private companies that used to buy Russian oil from India continue to do so."

The US president imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, which would result in some Indian goods being subject to a combined 50% tariff. This was allegedly due to India's purchase of Russian oil. The US tariffs would severely impact India's export sectors, such as textiles, precious stones, and jewelry. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on August 27.

On the other hand, Russia has decided to impose a two-month ban on gasoline exports to external markets. However, this should not have a significant impact on fuel prices on the Polish market, as Poland currently meets its internal needs through domestic supplies, and the two-month period is short enough that the ban will not disrupt the global supply and demand situation. This doesn't mean that fuel prices won't rise seasonally in the fall.

"In the fall, even if crude oil prices remain relatively stable, we will see larger upward price corrections for diesel fuel than for gasoline. We probably won't avoid this seasonality this year either, although we're seeing it this summer as well," says Urszula Cieślak.

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