Economic summary of the week. What awaits us in the coming days?

• Last week we learned a lot of interesting information from the real estate market.
• The world is currently watching the actions of the American president. Last week, Donald Trump decided to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Next week, the world will be watching the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Moscow. Is a ceasefire possible?
• In Poland, we will learn the final inflation reading for July, a flash estimate of GDP for the second quarter and the result of the current account balance and trade in goods.

On Monday, we discussed economic data from the United States and Poland. In July, 73,000 new jobs were created in the United States, significantly fewer than economists expected. Data from the last two months was also revised down by over 258,000. The unemployment rate also increased. The data is clear: the US labor market is deteriorating faster than expected just a month ago. However, it wasn't the market data that made the biggest impression on investors. It was overshadowed by President Donald Trump's decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the release of new statistics. He also accused Trump of falsifying and misrepresenting data. You can read about whether the American president is right and how the market reacted to the decision in Monday's summary.

Negative signals have also reached us from Polish industry. The PMI index indicates a further contraction in this sector, although the good news is that economic conditions in July were better than in June. Among the reasons cited is weakening demand in Germany. Tougher times are also coming for banks. The decline in WIBOR caused profits to decline in the first half of the year. According to new data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP), although they earned a whopping PLN 23.3 billion, in June alone they only earned a modest PLN 2.5 billion.

In Monday's summary, we also looked at the professional activity of people of retirement age. Zbigniew Derdziuk, president of the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS), reported that approximately one million people in Poland continue to work beyond retirement age . The hard numbers clearly indicate that delaying retirement can be very profitable. The latest news worth discussing is Biedronka's plans to expand its operations in Poland . Will Jeronimo Martins acquire part of the Carrefour chain? What are the arguments behind this decision? Why would Carrefour sell its own stores? We encourage those interested in this topic to read on.

Wages are rising nicely, but we are seeing a slump in the developer market

Tuesday brought us more positive news. Wholesale electricity prices in Poland are falling. This is good news for households . The year-to-date average at the end of June was 425 PLN. Meanwhile, prices for households are frozen at 500 PLN per megawatt-hour, clearly showing that the entire wholesale market is currently below this level. Therefore, a potential thaw in electricity prices should not result in increased bills.

This isn't the only good news for consumers. Electricity prices are falling, while wages are rising. In June, wages were 9% higher than a year earlier. The data surprised economists, who had expected an increase of only 8.6%. Interestingly, however, the growth was fueled by wage increases in the mining and energy sectors. What does the data mean for the economy? Those interested can read Tuesday's summary.

On Tuesday, we also looked at good news from Germany. Major German companies announced over €100 billion in new investments. Bad news, however, came from the real estate market. In June, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) recorded a virtual collapse in developer activity. The number of new construction projects fell by 37.5% year-on-year. Also worth considering is the new oil and gas deposits near Wolin Island. What does this mean for our economy? Will this allow us to become less dependent on foreign supplies? We must warn optimists – you're in for a cold shower.

Personal Investment Account - a hit or a miss?

On Wednesday, we looked at some news from the Polish and Russian economies. The most important seems to be the new proposal from the Ministry of Finance. Instead of changes to the Belka tax, the Personal Investment Account will be introduced. Minister of Finance and Economy Andrzej Domański managed to surprise everyone at the conference. Will the OKI change the Polish financial market? Is this idea worth considering? Those interested can read Wednesday's summary.

Another significant piece of news was apartment sales in July. These were the highest apartment sales in nearly two years across Poland's seven largest real estate markets (Warsaw, Krakow, Tricity, Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź, and Katowice), according to Otodom. Despite this high demand, supply proved even higher, and the number of unsold apartments increased.

According to Bloomberg, Russia's oil revenues are falling at an accelerating rate. In July, budget revenues from taxes related to oil sales were a staggering 32.6% lower than a year ago. Why is this happening? Is this due to falling oil sales or lower prices? We encourage you to read Wednesday's summary. Another noteworthy piece of information is the financing of Poland's borrowing needs. Although these are enormous this year, amounting to a staggering PLN 553 billion, they have already been covered by 85%. This is good news for the government, meaning that our financial situation can be considered stable (although the deficit is not low).

German problems and changes in CPK financing

On Thursday, we reviewed proposed changes to the CPK program. Minister Pełczyńska-Nałęcz envisions the future of the companies (both CPK and HSR) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The investment cost is estimated at PLN 131 billion, a significant burden on the budget. A potential stock exchange debut offers numerous benefits. However, there are several significant obstacles.

We also looked at demand for housing loans in July. It reached an exceptionally high level of PLN 19.4 billion. This is the latest data from the real estate market this year. What is the reason for this increase? What will be its consequences? We break down the data. Let's return to Polish politics. Karol Nawrocki has become the new president of the Republic of Poland. Analysts believe that the change in government will have a negative impact on the zloty and Polish bond prices.

On Thursday, we also welcomed the prospect of a meeting between Putin and Zalensky. The Americans hold strong cards, but are they enough to force the Kremlin into talks with the Ukrainian authorities? Potential talks would have a huge impact on the stock market in Central and Eastern Europe. However, bad news is coming from the West. Germany's problems with American tariffs are already visible in the data. In June, industrial orders from our western neighbors unexpectedly fell by 1% month-on-month. Analysts had expected an increase.

Is the end of the war near? The stock market reacts.

Friday's headliner was the stock exchange. We examined the record-breaking performance of the Polish stock exchange, fueled by the prospect of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Shares of Ukrainian companies such as Agroton, Milkiland, and Coal Energy surged by over 20%. Ukrainian bond prices are also rising. Meanwhile, the Moscow Stock Exchange index rose by 4%, and the only Russian company available to Western investors, Hong Kong-listed Rusal, is up nearly 5%. Austrian Raiffeisen Bank, associated with doing business in Russia, rose by a staggering 14% in Vienna. However, there are two sides to the coin. Interest in European defense companies is waning. Not only is Germany's Rheinmetall losing ground, but so is Italy's Leonardo and Britain's BAE Systems. Is the end of the war near?

The stock market is also buzzing with the acquisition of PZU by Pekao SA. This will be possible as early as mid-next year. We also looked at new data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). Poland's foreign exchange reserves are already larger than those of the United States. Does this matter significantly? Less than it might seem at first glance. We're ending Friday with good news. Russia's deficit after July is larger than the full-year plan. This data perfectly aligns with Bloomberg's calculations of budget revenues from oil and gas sales. In the context of Poland, one key question is: will the weak budget force the Russians to compromise?

What awaits us in the coming week? We'll learn a lot of economic data.

Sunday is the perfect time to take a look not only at the week just ending, but also at the week ahead. What awaits us in the coming days? On Tuesday, Eurostat will report industrial producer prices for June 2025. The Central Statistical Office (GUS) will also report the number of business registrations and bankruptcies in the second quarter of 2025. We will also learn CPI inflation in the US.

On Wednesday, several important indicators will be released. In Poland, the Central Statistical Office will publish a flash estimate of GDP for the second quarter. The National Bank of Poland will release the June results for the current account balance and trade in goods. We will also learn about inflation rates in Germany and Spain. PKO BP will publish its consolidated report for the first half of the year.

On Thursday, we will know the final reading of July consumer inflation in Poland and France, and July producer inflation in Switzerland and the US. Second-quarter GDP data will be released by the United Kingdom, Romania, Slovakia, and the eurozone (revised). Industrial production for June will be reported by statistical offices in the United Kingdom, Romania, Hungary, and the eurozone. The Central Statistical Office will also release data on foreign trade turnover, both overall and by country, for the period January to June 2025.

On Friday, second-quarter GDP in Japan, July industrial production in Japan and the US, and July consumer inflation in Slovakia are scheduled for release. China will release housing prices, industrial production, and retail sales for July. The US will also release July import and export prices and retail sales figures.

However, it seems that negotiations between Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow may prove crucial for markets. Will the United States' economic blackmail prove effective? This is the question analysts across Europe are asking themselves today.