Russia and Ukraine conclude their first summit without major progress.

Both sides agreed to exchange 2,000 prisoners, the largest exchange since the start of the war. kyiv and Moscow said they wanted to continue negotiations, without specifying dates or objectives.

The first face-to-face meeting between Russia and Ukraine since 2022 took place yesterday in Istanbul, mediated by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Cold feelings and strong differences between the two sides were evident at the meeting, which ended without any major progress, although it did allow Moscow and Kyiv to agree on the exchange of 2,000 prisoners.

There would be 1,000 on each side, and if it materializes, it would be the largest exchange since February 2022, when the Russian aggression against Ukraine began, the end of which, for now, remains unclear.

The meeting lasted about an hour and 45 minutes, and according to sources from the Kyiv government cited by Ukrainian state television, the decision was made to put the talks on hold after Moscow insisted on its territorial claims. Tass , the official Russian news agency, also spoke of a "pause," specifying that the two delegations have not yet decided whether they will resume the talks.

The Kremlin took the opportunity to reiterate a demand that Kiev considers completely inappropriate and unacceptable: that Ukraine fully withdraw from the four eastern regions that Russia unilaterally annexed in September 2022, months after the start of the aggression.

These territories are the self-proclaimed People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk —under Russian control since the start of the Donbas war in 2014—and the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. Together, these four areas represent about a fifth of Ukraine's land area. There is also Crimea, a peninsula that Russia incorporated into its territory in 2014.

Another Russian demand is that Ukraine completely renounce its desire to become a NATO member. Meanwhile, Kiev demanded "security guarantees" from its Western allies to prevent further attacks from Moscow in the future and that the Russian army withdraw from all the regions it has occupied. Ukraine also made clear its absolute opposition to ceding territories, as this would violate the principle of territorial integrity enshrined in its Constitution.

The possibility that yesterday's meeting would immediately mark a turning point in the war was very remote. Evidence of this was the words of US President Donald Trump , who this week asserted that the war would not end until he and Russian President Vladimir Putin participate in the talks. This message was also conveyed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

One factor that contributed to lowering expectations was Putin's decision to be absent. The leadership of the Russian delegation fell to Vladimir Medinsky. He is a former minister, advisor to the hardline Russian government, and also led the only direct negotiations between the two countries, which took place in 2022. Those contacts took place in Turkey, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled this week. Zelensky stated just before the meeting that with his snub, Putin made it clear that he was not taking the meeting "seriously."

On Friday, as the meeting concluded, Ukrainian diplomatic sources cited by Reuters lamented that the Kremlin had chosen to undermine peace efforts with "impossible and unconstructive conditions" regarding its territorial demands . According to Kiev, Moscow also tried to keep Turkey and the US out of the contacts.

In public, Russia's message was very different. "Overall, we are satisfied with the outcome and are ready to continue contacts," said Medinsky, who said he had "taken note" of Ukraine's request to open direct talks between the Russian president and Zelensky.

The latter was in Albania this Friday with European leaders. After the meeting, he again called on social media for a "total and unconditional" ceasefire and "an end to the killings" by the Kremlin. If this doesn't materialize, he called for "maintaining pressure on Russia until it is ready to end the war" with new "severe sanctions ."

The latest report on the evolution of the war by the American think tank Hudson Institute states that we have entered a paradoxical "new phase." "Ahead of possible ceasefire talks in Istanbul, Russia is preparing to launch a large-scale offensive against Ukraine this summer," with the aim of capturing strategic locations such as Kharkiv, the second most populous city; Sumy; and Zaporizhia.

Drone attacks are increasing but are meeting with strong Ukrainian resistance. Thus, in April, citing Italian intelligence data, Russia only expanded to 20,000 square kilometers, a smaller figure than in other months.