The US faces a government shutdown with minimal economic impact, according to UBS.

The US government shutdown is back in the news after negotiations in Congress over next fiscal year's budget failed. However, this time the economic impact appears to be less than expected. According to UBS , one of the world's most influential financial firms, historical shutdowns have had a limited economic and financial impact , with brief declines that markets typically recover quickly.

The last government shutdown, in December 2018, lasted 35 days and left its mark on federal workers' morale. Today, although the memory lingers, analysts say the US economy is better prepared . According to UBS, a total shutdown would shave just 0.1 percentage points off GDP each week , a figure that typically recovers once the government resumes operations.

Even so, the immediate effects are visible: museums, national parks, and public offices are suspending operations, while hundreds of thousands of employees are temporarily without pay.

“The initial impact was slightly negative, although market fundamentals remain solid,” explained Janneth Quiroz , director of economic analysis at Monex.

Three factors could generate volatility: high market valuation , uncertain employment data , and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) .

The Fed could, in fact, maintain its roadmap with rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points in October and a total of 0.75 percentage points by the end of the year , which would ease economic pressure.

Former President Donald Trump has threatened mass layoffs of federal employees in the event of a prolonged shutdown. Such a move, analysts warn, could have more severe consequences than the shutdown itself.

"During the closing of 2013, S&P estimated losses of $24 billion ," recalled Carlos Ponce of SNX. "If jobs are cut permanently now, the impact on employment would be greater."

Given this outlook, UBS recommends that investors maintain positions in quality fixed income , strengthen income-generating strategies, and consider gold as a safe haven asset , which could reach $3,900 per troy ounce by 2026 .

Furthermore, the firm emphasizes that the market's true drivers are elsewhere: advances in artificial intelligence (AI) , solid corporate reporting , and expansionary monetary policies that continue to boost the U.S. economy.

Amid political tension and media fears, the government shutdown appears more like a technical pause than a structural collapse. Analysts believe the U.S. economy has learned to adapt quickly to political challenges , demonstrating a resilience that bolsters investor confidence.