The conclave arrives: 135 cardinals, two resigned, and five current cardinals to elect the new pope.

With Pope Francis buried after a mass funeral this Saturday, everyone's mind is already focused on the immediate future of the Catholic Church. After two meetings this Monday, the cardinals decided that the conclave to elect the Argentine pontiff's successor will begin on May 7.

This Monday's meetings were the fifth and sixth general congregations of cardinals since Francis's death, so they have had the opportunity to discuss certain aspects of the succession over the course of a week.

These initial approaches, according to the Spanish Church, will help ensure that the conclave doesn't drag on too long. César García Magán, secretary general of the Episcopal Conference , expressed this Sunday in statements to RTVE that he doesn't believe "it will be a huge, long conclave, lasting a week, five or six days, as has happened throughout the history of the Church," since he believes that in current times , communication between cardinals is much greater than before .

However, the decisive debates are expected to take place in the coming days , when all the cardinals are expected to be in Rome, an unavoidable and logical condition for the conclave to begin, from which a Pope who follows suit with Francis's example could emerge, or one who will put the brakes on his reforms.

80% of the cardinals were appointed by Francis

During his 12 years as Pope, Francis has worked hard to reorganize a Curia with a smaller Italian presence and composed of cardinals more in line with his vision of the Church. Although it cannot be said that all of them share it to the same extent, the fact is that eight out of ten cardinals participating in the conclave were appointed by the Argentine (108), compared to 21 appointed by Benedict XVI and 4 by John Paul II.

There are 135 eligible cardinals (those under 80) eligible to vote, but two have already cited health reasons for not participating: Cardinal Vinko Puljić, Archbishop of Sarajevo (Bosnia), and Cardinal Antonio Cañizares, Archbishop Emeritus of Valencia.

Thus, 133 cardinals will vote, compared to 115 in the conclave that elected Francis. Since a candidate needs a two-thirds majority to be elected, he must receive 89 votes this time.

By age group, only 15 cardinals are under 60. The youngest is the Ukrainian Mykola Bychok , bishop in the Australian city of Melbourne, aged 45. On the other hand, 45 are between 60 and 70 years old and the majority (73) are between 71 and 80. The oldest is the Spaniard Carlos Osoro Sierra, aged 79 and cardinal archbishop emeritus of Madrid.

Likewise, the continent most represented in the conclave is Europe , with 49 cardinals, followed by America, with 37; Asia, with 24; Africa, with 19; and Oceania, with 4.

Becciu's mystery cleared up

One of the first points to be discussed at the fifth general congregation of cardinals held this Monday was the question of whether or not Angelo Becciu , whom Francis stripped of his cardinal privileges for his involvement in a financial scandal for which he was sentenced to five years and six months in prison , will participate.

Although he has insisted on several occasions that he retains the prerogative to enter the conclave, he announced on Tuesday that he will not participate. "Considering the good of the Church, which I have served and will continue to serve with fidelity and love, and to contribute to the communion and serenity of the conclave, I have decided to obey, as I have always done, the will of Pope Francis not to enter the conclave , although I remain convinced of my innocence," he declared in a statement.

The currents of the Curia

No matter how much the Church insists that it is not an ideological institution, it is undeniable that the Curia is composed of cardinals with different agendas and visions.

The diplomats

Diplomats are looking to Cardinal Pietro Parolin , the Vatican's Secretary of State. These are cardinals from the Curia who have gotten to know the number two well over the years, or those who have served in the diplomatic corps or as former nuncios. For them, Parolin would be the ideal candidate, because he is considered moderate and even capable of bringing order to complicated situations.

The Americans

There are 14 cardinals from the United States, but although they could form a single group, they are sharply divided. Some side with Timothy Dolan , the archbishop of New York, who is very active on social media and has spoken out against Donald Trump's immigration policy.

Others are betting on the moderate and reserved American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost , one of Pope Francis' big bets, who appointed him responsible for the bishops of the entire world and for his commission for Latin America.

The moderates

A group could support the continuity of the experience of the Synod (the Church's debate body), thus supporting Cardinal Mario Grech , secretary general of the Synod, or Jean-Claude Hollerich , archbishop of Luxembourg and general rapporteur of the last Synod on Synodality.

Cristóbal López Romero , Archbishop of Rabat, also emerges at this point: Spanish, with a South American passport, cardinal in Africa and defender of interfaith dialogue with Islam.

The Conservatives

Even conservatives, those who have more or less openly criticized Francis' pontificate, are divided between those who are more extreme, such as the African Robert Sarah or the American Leo Burke , who are very unlikely to be elected, but could be the so-called "kingmakers" of the most ultraconservative group.

Among them is German Cardinal Gehrard Ludwig Müller , who last week called for a reversal of Francis's changes and prayed "that the Holy Spirit enlighten the cardinals, because a heretical Pope who changes every day depending on what the media says would be catastrophic."

The conservatives would opt for Cardinal Wilhelm Eijk , Archbishop of Utrecht, who asked Pope Francis for a document on gender, or Peter Erdo , Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest. The latter is a candidate also popular with the "moderate front," which brings together all the cardinals who are neither on one side nor the other.

The progressives and those closest to Francis

Among those closest to Francis is Luis Antonio Tagle , known as the "Asian Francis" among the favorites to become the new pope. Tagle is prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and holds positions very similar to Jorge Bergoglio's, for example, regarding homosexuality.

Likewise, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi , president of the Italian Episcopal Conference, who was the Pope's envoy to mediate in the war in Ukraine, has experience in resolving conflicts in Mozambique, Burundi, and Guatemala and pays great attention to the disadvantaged, in line with Francis' pontificate.

The Italians

It will be very difficult to reach an agreement among the Italian electors who will participate in the conclave, each of whom belongs to a different political party. But what is being felt in the local media these days is a real campaign to have the next pope be Italian after three foreign pontiffs. Their bets are Zuppi, Parolin, and Pizzabala, the Patriarch of Jerusalem with an international vision.