Will the Bayrou government fall? Explore different scenarios with our simulator

The future of François Bayrou's government is now in the hands of the National Assembly. Under pressure from the opposition ahead of the 2026 budget debate, the Prime Minister has decided to submit his government to a vote of confidence on Monday, September 8, the outcome of which will determine his continued tenure at Matignon.

This procedure, codified in Article 49.1 of the Constitution , provides for a simple question to be asked to all MPs: do you trust the Bayrou government to conduct the nation's policy? While they will have the option of abstaining or absenting themselves from the Chamber, only yes and no votes will be taken into account, with two possible outcomes:

• if the no vote represents the majority of votes cast (total number of yes and no votes), François Bayrou will be forced to resign;
• If the yes vote wins, he will be able to stay in office.

The four left-wing groups and the two far-right groups, which together hold 330 of the 574 seats currently occupied (57%), quickly made it known that they would vote against the confidence vote:

• La France Insoumise (71 elected officials) will vote against, according to its coordinator, Manuel Bompard;
• The French Communist Party (17 elected members) will vote against, according to its spokesperson, Léon Deffontaines;
• The Socialist Party (66 elected members) will vote against, according to its first secretary, Olivier Faure. However, the Socialist deputies still have to meet to agree on a common position, and have not ruled out changing their minds if the government "revises its copy" on the budget;
• The Ecologists (38 elected officials) will vote “against”, according to their general secretary, Marine Tondelier;
• The National Rally (123 elected representatives) will vote "against", according to Marine Le Pen, the president of its parliamentary group;
• The Union of the Right for the Republic (15 elected members) considers it " unthinkable" to grant confidence to the Bayrou government, according to its president Eric Ciotti, without however explicitly stating whether his group will vote against or abstain.

The four "common core" groups, which total 207 deputies, have not yet all officially declared their position, even though the majority of them are expected to support the Bayrou government:

• The group Together for the Republic (Renaissance, 91 elected representatives) must clarify its position at the end of a meeting scheduled for Tuesday, August 26 at 5 p.m.;
• The MoDem (36 elected members) should logically support François Bayrou, who came from its ranks;
• Horizons (34 elected representatives) has not yet communicated its position;
• The Republican Right group (46 elected representatives) will support the government, according to the president of the Republicans party, Bruno Retailleau;

As for the 23 elected members of the Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories group, they have "little chance" of voting confidence, according to Charles de Courson, one of its leading figures. This independent group was due to meet on Tuesday to decide on a common position.

Finally, the eleven deputies who sit among the non-attached members have no group discipline. Former Macronists, various right-wingers, "ex" members of the National Rally... They should divide their votes between "for," "against," and abstention.

Unless the situation turns around through negotiations by September 8, François Bayrou is heading towards a negative vote, at the end of which he would be forced to leave Matignon after just over eight months in power.