Manuel Valls leaves New Caledonia with an uncertain future

A new meeting lasting more than three hours with the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) changed nothing: the main Caledonian independence movement reaffirmed its categorical rejection of the agreement signed on July 12 in Yvelines.

On Tuesday morning, the FLNKS "reiterated its categorical rejection of the draft agreement," according to a statement released after the meeting, while the minister reiterated that his "door is open."

To make this second meeting possible, the minister twice extended a trip that was originally scheduled to end on Saturday. Before leaving the French Pacific territory on Tuesday, he announced that "further discussions" were to take place "in the coming days" in Paris, assuring that "a space for discussion exists" and that "it must be seized."

"New Caledonian society is waiting for an agreement, but New Caledonian society is not just the FLNKS. So I also invite them to reconnect with other political groups," insisted Manuel Valls.

The Front, whose delegates had agreed to defend the Bougival text before being disavowed by the activists, wishes to discuss with the State only, in a "bilateral meeting" and on "access to full sovereignty before the 2027 presidential election", according to the motion adopted by its extraordinary congress on August 9.

A request deemed impossible to accept by the minister while all the other parties in the territory, including two pro-independence components - the Progressive Union in Melanesia (UPM) and Palika - have confirmed their support for the Bougival compromise.

This text provides for the creation of a state of New Caledonia, with its own nationality, but enshrined in the French Constitution. It also implies the postponement of provincial elections until mid-2026, a crucial deadline in the local political balance.

But FLNKS activists believe it is "incompatible with the fundamentals of the independence struggle," including the exercise of the right to self-determination. "To claim that without Bougival the country would plunge into nothingness is a lie," the movement insisted last week.

An agreement without the FLNKS?

Despite this impasse, Manuel Valls remains optimistic. "I'm leaving with the feeling that the Bougival agreement has been strengthened and that we have made significant progress," he said on Tuesday, at the end of his fourth visit in eight months.

On Monday, the "drafting committee" tasked with drafting the future constitutional law completed its work after three sessions. The Customary Senate, which was invited to participate, withdrew from the second meeting, believing that its proposals had not been heard.

But among the signatories still committed to the agreement, the absence of the FLNKS raises questions. "Can we conclude a decolonization agreement without the FLNKS? I don't think so," warned Milakulo Tukumuli, president of the Oceanian Awakening, a pivotal party that is neither pro-independence nor anti-independence, calling on the movement to return to the negotiating table.

The tension is as much political as it is security-related. In May 2024, the government's proposed electoral reform, despite opposition from separatists, sparked riots that left 14 dead and caused more than two billion euros in damage.

"This time the State will not let itself be surprised," assured Manuel Valls.

Another obstacle now looms in the already tight schedule: the constitutional bill implementing the agreement must be presented to the Council of Ministers on September 17, before a meeting of Congress in Versailles for its adoption in December.

This will only be possible if the government is not overthrown on September 8, during the vote of confidence requested in the National Assembly by Prime Minister François Bayrou.