Vox without Milei
Vox is holding its annual political festival in Madrid this weekend without Javier Milei on the speakers' platform. Last year, the newly elected Argentine president was the star of the festival, held in May at the start of the European Parliament election campaign. Milei has just suffered a serious political setback in his country and has canceled the trip.
There won't be a chainsaw, but there will be euphoria. Things are going well for Vox. Since joining the Patriots for Europe platform (July 2024), they have strengthened. Donald Trump's victory in the United States (November 2024) has objectively gone well for them, despite the tariffs. The polls are ticking along and indicate that the Spanish far-right party continues to rise and already exceeds 17% in vote projections. It appeals to many young people, scares the Popular Party, and could be a decisive force in the next term. It is estimated that more than a million former PP voters have switched to Vox in the last year.
The party led by Santiago Abascal appears in the polls as the preferred party among younger voters, those aged 18 to 24. Just over a decade ago, younger voters were overwhelmingly attracted to Podemos. This is a stark contrast. Now, the beacon of youth discontent, especially male youth discontent, is carried by the far right. Vox would be the most popular party among young people and would tie with the PSOE in the age bracket where those initial admirers of Podemos are found, who are now between 34 and 45. Abascal's political proposal only encounters strong resistance among those over 65, that is, among Spaniards who are already receiving pensions and retain a vivid memory of the political struggles of the transition. Generational tension is currently bearing the hallmark of Vox.
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In presidential preferences, Santiago Abascal leads Pedro Sánchez among voters aged 18 to 30, and is clearly ahead of Alberto Núñez Feijóo among voters aged 18 to 40. Abascal has a ten-point advantage over Feijóo among younger voters. The leader of the Popular Party has a ten-point advantage over Abascal among those over 65. Feijóo, however, does not win in any age group, as he always has Pedro Sánchez ahead. These are data that appear in the guts of the latest CIS poll, released this week. In this regard, consider the following data: When asked, "Who do you prefer as Prime Minister?", the majority response among those aged 18 to 45 is "none."
There's currently a huge annoyance with politics and politicians among younger people, and the party that best embodies this discontent is Vox. In my opinion, they could soon reach a 20% vote expectation by strategically capturing the Popular Party. They don't need to overtake it to capture it. Capturing it occurs when Party A begins to systematically copy Party B's messages to prevent it from overtaking them. There are beginning to be clear signs of this.
Aware of the underlying currents, the current leadership of the PP is trying to imitate Vox's language. Feijóo has entrusted this task to Miguel Tellado, the new secretary general of the conservative party. The result is paradoxical: the more the PP heats up the situation, the more Vox rises. The more tension builds in the public debate, the easier it is for the PSOE to appear as the "safe haven" party of the left, given that the Sumar-Podemos schism has left no stone unturned. Sumar remains stuck at 6%, with slight fluctuations, while Podemos does not exceed 4.5%. This split seems completely irreparable and helps Vox emerge as the main focus of opposition. Not everything is reduced to the classic right-left polarity. As was the case ten years ago, there is another axis of tension before the eyes of many people: those in the official sphere, those who have always been there, and those who are "opposite." The far-right party is the one with the most followers on social networks Tik Tok and Instagram, the digital sphere of the youngest, which is why a few days ago we saw a video clip in which Núñez Feijóo appears, a usually hieratic man, singing “my lemon, my lemon tree”, with the caption “I like fruit” (a slogan coined some time ago by Isabel Díaz Ayuso's team to call the President of the Government a “son of a bitch”).
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In short, Vox is opening a serious gap in the PP. As we noted earlier, it is estimated that more than a million former PP voters have switched their preferences to the Spanish party most closely associated with the hurricane unleashed by Donald Trump in the United States. This transmigration of souls began with the Valencian disaster and was accentuated again this past summer with the forest fires in northwest Spain, in which the PP failed to shine as a party-manager. The current dynamic began with the disaster.
Vox is therefore celebrating its annual festival in a euphoric climate. The President of the United States is supporting them, they are approaching 20%, they have scared the Popular Party, they are increasingly limiting their language, they are successful among young people, and they are no longer at the bottom of the class in the classroom of the European far right. Their alliance with Viktor Órban and Marine Le Pen no longer seems eccentric today. It seems to have paid off for them to leave the regional governments in which they formed a coalition with the PP (Valencian Community, Castile and León, Murcia, Aragon, and Extremadura). They talk, they don't govern. The Valencian Dana didn't sweep them away. This summer's fires haven't scorched them.
Vox is part of a European movement that is gaining weight and influence in almost every country in the EU. The "patriots" are feeling strong. The far right has triumphed in Germany, placing itself as the second-largest party. (AdF is tied with the CDU in the polls today). The National Rally could win in France at the current pace. Chega is the second-largest electoral force in Portugal, ahead of the Socialist Party. Giorgia Meloni, with a more pragmatic profile, and Matteo Salvini, increasingly pro-Russian, have governed together in Italy since 2022. Law and Justice has managed to retain the presidency of Poland. The national populist Andrej Babis could win the next legislative elections in the Czech Republic. The Dutch Freedom Party could be the main beneficiary of the early elections in the Netherlands. The fjord far right has just placed second in Norway, overtaking the traditional conservative party. They participate in the Finnish government, influence the Swedish government, govern, of course, in Hungary (at risk of losing in the spring), and were on the verge of winning the Romanian presidency a few months ago. It's impressive. They are the second-largest force in most European countries. If Vox reaches 20% in upcoming polls, it could be decisive in the formation of a future government in Spain.
Read alsoThere are reasons for euphoria, but there will be no chainsaw at the Vistalegre festival. Javier Milei has canceled his trip to Madrid because he must deal with the problems that have arisen in Argentina. He has just lost the provincial elections in Buenos Aires, and it wasn't a narrow defeat. The Peronists have given him a beating: more than thirteen points ahead. What happened? The province of Buenos Aires, home to 40% of Argentina's population, was the last great bastion of the Peronists, so Milei launched an attack "to drive the last nails into the coffin of Kirchnerism." In the midst of the assault, his chainsaw stopped. His inseparable sister, Karina Milei, has been embroiled in a dark corruption case (alleged kickbacks on the purchase of medicines for the disabled), with recordings that incriminate her. Karina is the president's alter ego. The chainsaw's magnetism seems to have been broken. There are legislative elections in the fall, and the libertarians are putting everything on the line. In Madrid, there has been a discreet silence these days regarding the Argentine electoral disaster.
Vox won't have the live presence of the chainsaw man this weekend, last year's big show, but they have reason to celebrate. They're riding toward 20% and can strategically capture the Popular Party.
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