Counter to zero

Alberto Núñez Feijóo suggests that Carles Puigdemont reset the counter to zero so Spain can go to elections. And José María Aznar warns that Pedro Sánchez could end up in jail for having agreed to the amnesty with "criminals." Perhaps it's just my obsession, but I'd say there's more than a nuance between those two messages. Differences of perspective exist within the Popular Party; we're not about to discover the Mediterranean or the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Galicia right now, but Núñez Feijóo was embraced yesterday by former presidents Aznar and Mariano Rajoy at the opening ceremony of the main opposition party's congress. This was the first regular congress the PP has held in eight years to renew its ideology.

Feijóo dreams of a 160-seat PP with a great capacity for tactical maneuvering in the future Congress of Deputies. A strong PP that can reach an understanding on some issues with the Basque Nationalist Party and Junts per Catalunya, especially in economic matters; that can negotiate "affairs of state" with a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party shifted to the center by Felipe González and the Emilian faction. And that ultimately can also reach agreements with Vox, to further discipline the Emilian PSOE and the Basque and Catalan nationalists attracted by the pact but at the same time loyal to the sovereignty demand. Using the expression "zero counter," Feijóo rethinks the hypothesis of a pragmatic Spanish right that speaks Catalan in private, like the one led by Aznar between 1996 and 2000.

The problem is that the PP is currently far from reaching 160 seats. With 33% of the vote, the projection assigned to it by the latest published poll, it would fall far short of that threshold and would depend substantially on the support of Vox, unless the PSOE generously offered to pursue a policy of "national consensus," short of forming a coalition government between the two major parties, in the German style. That hypothesis is practically impossible in Spain today, but a policy of "national consensus," a policy of basic understanding between the two parties, is now desired by various sectors of Spanish public life. Writer Javier Cercás defended this option last Thursday in an article published in the newspaper El País , in which he also demanded the resignation of Pedro Sánchez over the Cerdán - Ábalos - Koldo scandal. The PSOE in Emilia is trying to expand its sphere of influence in this critical moment and now has better resources to do so.

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Various hypotheses are flying over Spanish airspace and finding their way into the hangars of the Popular Party's congress. Feijóo could lead demonstrations in Madrid where people shout "Puigdemont to prison!" as if there were no tomorrow, and the next day he could suggest granting a pardon to the former president of the Generalitat. February 2024. Galician election campaign. Feijóo surprised everyone by stating at a lunch with journalists that he might be willing to grant Puigdemont a pardon if he complied with the Constitution. Some Madrid newspapers were shocked. The message had already been sent: "Under certain circumstances, we could work it out."

A few days ago, the current leader of the opposition called on the leader of Junts per Catalunya to reset the counter to zero so that the Spanish people can vote as soon as possible. He told the man from Waterloo that it was more beneficial for Junts to go to elections, turn the political landscape around, and weaken the Socialists, than to strengthen Salvador Illa as president of the Generalitat. Coded message: help us reset the counter and we'll fix whatever needs fixing. Since the Amnesty Law has already been validated by the Constitutional Court, the only thing missing to reset the counter in the Catalan independence movement is the application of the aforementioned law to Puigdemont, Oriol Junqueras , and other leaders convicted of embezzlement. Counter to zero. Everyone in, as we've been saying in La Vanguardia for months. All within the truly existing political framework, agreeing based on political and ideological affinities.

Núñez Feijóo was supported yesterday by former presidents Aznar and Mariano Rajoy

Counter at zero. The Supreme Court refuses to apply the amnesty to those convicted of embezzlement, pending a ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union. Is Feijóo suggesting that the PP could facilitate the definitive implementation of the Amnesty Law if Junts abandons the PSOE and forces the calling of early elections? Everything indicates that the communication channels opened with the Basque Nationalist Party and Junts are working, channels that have been equipped with air conditioning in recent months in anticipation of a very hot summer. Note the following detail: the leadership of the Popular Party has managed to dismantle a congressional amendment from the Catalan PP that proposed vetoing any pact with Junts. The main leader of the Catalan PP is Alejandro Fernández , politically very close to Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo , who is clearly at odds with the current party leadership.

Núñez Feijóo dreams of three overlapping tactical moves, a highly variable geometry with the PNV and Junts, with the Emilian PSOE, and with Vox, which would require a much more resounding electoral result than the polls are currently offering. He should be able to comfortably exceed 35% of the vote. This is not the current outlook. The polls released in recent weeks agree that the biggest beneficiary of the scandal at the Socialists' headquarters is Vox. With a voter loyalty rate exceeding 85%, the far-right party could garner one million more votes today than in the July 2023 elections, surpassing 15%. If it maintains this upward trend, it could strategically capture the Popular Party.

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Feijóo intends to ward off this danger by placing two "wild boar" deputies on the front lines: Miguel Tellado , the party's new general secretary, with sweeping powers, and Esther Muñoz , its new parliamentary spokesperson. Loyalty and toughness. Two "tough guys" trying to attract the swinging Vox voter, while discreetly activating communication channels with the PNV and Junts parties and sending persuasive messages to their electorate. Santiago Abascal 's party has coined an implacable retort: ​​"If it weren't for Vox, Feijóo would already be in Waterloo."

The PSOE is also trying to reset its misfortunes. Sánchez is holding a meeting today with the party's Federal Committee (a fictitious name in a country that isn't federal), and will appear in Congress next Wednesday. Yesterday afternoon, he met with the Equality Secretaries of the party's provincial organizations as a sign of redress for the Koldo García audio recordings that portray the former Minister of Transport and former party organizational secretary, José Luis Ábalos , as a confirmed pimp. Didn't you know that?

The PSC is now Pedro Sánchez's main supporter.

Women can leave the PSOE, a party with a predominantly female electoral base for years. This is the main damage suffered by the Socialist Party's nuclear reactor, and this failure cannot be measured solely by fluctuations in voting intentions. It is a qualitative, profound damage, difficult to repair, because it involves the breakdown of trust. How is it possible that a party that advocates for the illegalization of prostitution has been in the hands of an organizing secretary who chose women à la carte, from the catalog presented to him by his aide? The PSOE leaked yesterday that one of the changes Sánchez is proposing is a modification of the statutes that would expel from the party any members who resort to prostitution, and this can be documented.

A woman will take over as Secretary of Organization, replacing Santos Cardán , supported by a team of veteran advisors. We are talking about Rebeca Torró , a Valencian activist, former collaborator of Ximo Puig in the Valencian Generalitat and current Secretary of State for Industry. Another woman, Montse Minguez , a member of the PSC (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), will be the new spokesperson for the PSOE. Compared to the Emilian PSOE, the Mediterranean PSOE becomes Sánchez's last line of defense.

A PSC member, spokesperson for the PSOE. That's a first. Let's remember that the PSC and PSOE are two legally distinct parties, by virtue of the agreements for the unification of the socialist political space in Catalonia in the 1980s. In the Spanish political system, the organic independence of the PSC is a prominent and not always well-accepted anatomical feature. The Emilian PSOE would erase that organic autonomy, and Salvador Illa knows it. The PSC is now Pedro Sánchez's main supporter.

Perhaps in the not-too-distant future we'll see a woman heading the PSOE's list in the general elections. The Socialists urgently need to reset their counter with the female electorate.