Trump prepares USMCA renegotiation for October

Donald 's Government Trump will begin renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement ( USMCA ) in October , his most ambitious trade deal, which has been jeopardized by unilateral tariff measures imposed by the U.S. administration on its partners.

According to disclosed information, the negotiation has been entrusted to the office of Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative, who must open public consultations—with businesses, unions, and other stakeholders—by October 4, in accordance with the provisions of the Treaty. A lengthy renegotiation process is anticipated, including a public hearing in Congress in January 2026 and a trilateral meeting to review the terms of a potential new agreement on July 1 of that year.

The USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, in force since 1992, and was signed during Trump's first term in 2020. However, during his second term, the president has criticized the agreement, claiming it is harmful to the United States and has undermined its spirit by imposing unilateral tariffs against Mexico and Canada, which he accuses of lax border enforcement against drug trafficking.

In March of this year, the U.S. administration imposed 25% tariffs on imports not covered by the USMCA, as well as on steel and aluminum products essential to the automotive industry, one of the most integrated sectors in the North American production chain. That same month, Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke by phone, and Carney expressed his appreciation for "progress" in the talks.

At the same time, bilateral trade was also on the agenda this week between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Experts agree on Mexico's advantages in the renegotiation. Miguel Sigala, an international scholar at the University of Guadalajara, noted that Mexico maintains a key role as a supplier of quality products, inputs, and labor at lower costs, which represents a strategic advantage over the United States. Furthermore, the renegotiation seeks to reduce the presence of Chinese products in Mexico, strengthening regional economic interdependence.

However, the country faces structural weaknesses: insecurity, institutional weakness in certain sectors, migration, and drug trafficking leave it vulnerable to pressure from the United States.

For his part, Arturo Santa Cruz Díaz Santana, also from the University of Guadalajara, cautioned that bringing forward the renegotiation to October is not surprising and does not substantially change the negotiations. He clarified that the move up is against the rules, but was expected within the context of the 90-day extension of the treaty. According to the academic, if the review were held next year, Mexico would have more time to prepare.

He added that US tariff pressures on security and migration issues create additional weaknesses for Mexico, as Trump uses the USMCA not only as a trade instrument but also as a means of political pressure. Even so, some North American industries depend on cooperation with Mexico and will advocate for keeping the agreement in place.