Latin America will grow only 2.2 percent this year, according to ECLAC.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) published its annual report, Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, reaffirming that the region remains stuck on a path of low economic growth, characterized by weak domestic demand, less dynamic global trade, and greater external vulnerabilities.

For Colombia, although a slight acceleration is expected compared to the previous two years, structural risks persist and require concrete actions in terms of productivity, investment, financial integration, and fiscal sustainability.

According to the report, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow an average of 2.2 percent in 2025 and 2.5 percent in 2026. In the case of Colombia, ECLAC projects growth of 2.3 percent for this year, above the regional average and countries such as Mexico (with 0.3 percent) and Brazil (with 2.3 percent).

This estimate is supported by a rebound in domestic consumption, stabilizing investment, and a slight upturn in the mining and energy sector, driven by external demand and improved macroeconomic coordination.

Despite this favorable projection for the country, the report warns of a context of high global uncertainty that could hinder this performance. Among the factors limiting the economic outlook for 2025 and 2026 are geopolitical tensions, fragmented supply chains , still-restrictive international financial conditions, and a persistent weakening of international trade. All of this, combined with internal challenges such as low productivity, labor informality, and unequal access to credit, could hinder Colombia's economic recovery.

ECLAC warns that Latin America and the Caribbean are in a "development trap," marked by four factors: low growth, high inequality, limited social mobility, and persistent structural gaps. Although Colombia has made progress in social inclusion, expanding monetary transfers, and access to services, the country continues to show a high dependence on primary sectors and limited productive transformation.

"Colombia needs to accelerate its transition toward higher value-added sectors, with an emphasis on green industry, digitalization, and the knowledge economy. The model based on natural resources has reached its limit," said José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, Executive Secretary of ECLAC, during the presentation of the study.

At the subregional level, South America will lead regional growth in 2025, with a 2.7 percent expansion, driven by the recovery of Argentina (5 percent) and Ecuador (1.5 percent), the strong performance of Colombia (2.5 percent), and the solid expansion of Paraguay (4.0 percent). However, a moderate slowdown is expected across the subregion by 2026, with Colombia projected to grow by 2.7 percent.

In contrast, Central America and Mexico will barely grow 1.0 percent in 2025, affected by lower external demand from the United States. The Caribbean, excluding Guyana, will show growth of 1.8 percent, driven by high logistics costs, the decline in tourism, and high external debt.

For 2025 and 2026, job growth will remain low across the region. In Colombia, formal job creation has shown signs of recovery since the second half of 2024, but the report says it remains marked by informality, especially in rural areas and among women and youth.

ECLAC projects that the regional unemployment rate will stabilize at around 5.6 percent, although with significant differences between countries. In Colombia, the rate is expected to drop slightly to around 9 percent, but with informal employment remaining above 55 percent.

Furthermore, although regional inflation is expected to remain relatively stable, the risks of upward inflationary pressures stemming from global conflicts or shocks in food and energy prices remain.

In response to this situation, the 2025 Economic Study proposes a strategy focused on mobilizing resources to finance development. The report outlines three priority areas: mobilizing domestic resources, attracting external capital , and strengthening development banking.

Regarding the first pillar, ECLAC recommends moving toward tax reform that improves the progressivity of the tax system, reduces evasion, and streamlines tax benefits. For Colombia, this means consolidating recent efforts in digitalizing the DIAN (National Tax Administration), modernizing the land registry, and monitoring public spending, without negatively impacting investment or household consumption.

On the second axis, attracting external resources must be aligned with the development agenda. The report suggests that countries like Colombia should scale up foreign direct investment with a focus on innovation, advanced manufacturing, energy transition, and knowledge-based services. To achieve this, it will be necessary to strengthen capital markets and diversify instruments such as green bonds, blended financing, and public-private partnerships.

Finally, ECLAC emphasizes the strategic role of development banks. In Colombia, institutions such as Bancóldex and Findeter must expand their lending capacity, take on more risks in innovative sectors, and facilitate access to financing for MSMEs, women entrepreneurs, and rural communities. It also proposes promoting regional initiatives such as a "Latin American Investment Fund for a Just Transition," which articulates multilateral and private resources toward climate and production goals.

The study concludes that, despite the slight rebound projected for Colombia in 2025, the national economy remains exposed to internal and external vulnerabilities that could hinder its recovery. ECLAC recommends that governments adopt a long-term strategic vision, where economic growth is aligned with an agenda of productive transformation, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability.

"The only way to break the region's structural stagnation is through ambitious and coordinated policies that promote investment, diversification, and regional integration," Salazar-Xirinachs insisted.