Despite the advance in reserves, distrust persists: analysts still doubt the economic program and the Central Bank.

Amid a substantial improvement in international reserves, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) still faces a skeptical outlook . Since December 2023, assets have grown by more than USD 17.6 billion, a result of the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and support from multilateral organizations such as the World Bank and the IDB.

However, the alarm has not disappeared from the economic radar.

Argentina is burdened with a heavy legacy: more than 70 of the last 90 years under capital control regimes, with hyperinflation, defaults, and failed agreements with the IMF . All of this destroyed confidence in the peso, weakened the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), and forced a 13-zero devaluation of the national currency.

Economist Ramiro Castiñeira argued in a recent column that this structural distrust persists, even with the free exchange rate established by Javier Milei , which narrowed the gap without direct intervention in the spot market.

On December 7, 2023, just after the new government took office, the Central Bank had gross reserves of USD 21.209 billion, but its net unrestricted reserves position was negative by almost USD 16 billion. Adding gold, the deficit fell to USD 12 billion, although these assets were not liquid.

Furthermore, the BCRA's balance sheet was inflated with non-transferable bonds with no market value . This distortion was eliminated by the current administration by canceling these bonds, cleaning up the accounts and more accurately reflecting the institution's real equity position.

On April 11, 2025, the government signed a new program with the IMF for USD 20 billion, with a 10-year term and a 4.5-year grace period. Of that amount, USD 12.396 billion was immediately allocated to repay intrastate debt and strengthen the Central Bank's balance sheet.

At the same time, the World Bank and the IDB committed lines of credit for USD 12 billion and USD 10 billion, respectively . In April alone, an additional USD 1.496 billion were received. Thanks to these disbursements, gross reserves closed April at USD 38.928 billion.

In June, with the addition of a USD 2 billion REPO and the subscription of the Bonte 2030 in dollars for USD 1.5 billion, reserves rose to USD 39.973 billion, according to the BCRA's Monetary Report.

During July, reserves fluctuated: on the 15th, they fell to USD 39.061 billion due to Treasury debt payments; on the 23rd, they recovered to USD 40.358 billion; and at the end of the month, they fell again due to new maturities, despite the inflow of IDB funds.

Even so, between April and July, gross reserves increased by USD 15.52 billion, with a net available reserve balance moving into positive territory: USD 6.297 billion . However, if loans from international organizations (USD 7.92 billion) are discounted, the adjusted net reserve balance remains slightly in the red.

Despite these advances, economists point out that a large portion of the funds come from loans, REPOs, or accounting revaluations. In this sense, the sustainability of reserves will depend on the generation of genuine revenue and a sustained fiscal surplus.

Fernando Marull noted on social media: " So far, the Central Bank hasn't sold a single dollar from the IMF (USD 12.4 billion) and will soon receive USD 2 billion from the first review ." This demonstrates prudence on the part of the monetary authority, which opted to strengthen its support before intervening in the market.

For his part, Federico Domínguez , partner at Pampa Capital, warned: "With a free exchange rate and no pass-through, the level of reserves is less relevant. But Argentina's history demands a backstop similar to that of a currency board, without monetary liabilities and with a permanent fiscal surplus."

Analysts also warn of factors that could put pressure on reserves in the coming months:

• Preventive dollarization before the provincial elections.
• Expansive tax incentives in some districts.
• Low season for foreign trade, which could be moderated by energy and mining exports.
• Global volatility affecting financial conditions.

Despite this, the government emphasizes that, for the first time in years, the Central Bank has a solid balance sheet, positive net reserves, and the elimination of unbacked accounting instruments. The challenge now is to consolidate this process without yielding to internal or external pressures.