Carlos Melconian warned that the economy "remains stagnant" despite the rebound.

In the second quarter of 2025, Argentina 's economy managed to recover its pre- recession activity level that began in the third quarter of 2023, but it slowed again, in what economists Carlos Melconian and Facundo Martínez Maino define as a new " stagnant peak " and warned that "once again, the level of activity is at a pivotal moment." The diagnosis of both specialists reflects concern about a pattern that has been repeating itself in the Argentine economy for more than a decade, where periods of recovery fail to consolidate into sustained growth .

According to the economists' analysis, "GDP in the second quarter of 2025 will recover what was lost in this cycle and return to its pre-recession level." However, they noted that " the economy is completing a rebound and then settling back there ," without translating into genuine growth that would expand the country's productive capacity and generate quality employment. This situation reproduces a pattern that has become characteristic of Argentina's economic dynamics in recent years.

Economists emphasize that "correction-recovery has enormous value" after the profound adjustment the economy experienced during the recession, but warn that "once again, the unknown and challenge of returning to growth remain, given that a rebound is not growth ." This distinction is essential to understanding the structural limitations facing the Argentine economy that prevent recovery periods from becoming lasting expansionary cycles.

"Economic growth requires macroeconomic stability, confidence, and a level playing field," Carlos Melconian and Martínez Maino emphasized, identifying the key elements missing to break the cycle of stagnation. In this regard, they questioned the short-term vision of certain economic analyses: "It's clearly not looking at whether more cars and motorcycles have been sold and/or whether more people have been going to shopping malls, which is a classic feature of the short-sighted discussion within the local divide."

Since 2011, the Argentine economy has not grown steadily and "entered a modern stop-and-go pattern, remaining virtually stagnant to this day," the experts indicated. During that period, while GDP remained largely unchanged, the population fell from 41 to 48 million, implying an 11% drop in GDP per capita , a metric that more clearly reflects the deterioration in the average Argentine standard of living.

"GDP is stagnant, and per capita GDP has plummeted 11%, which defines an economy that, given its demographics and capabilities, consumes little, invests little, produces little, and exports little ," Melconian and Martínez Maino stated in a column published in the newspaper Clarín. This characterization summarizes the main structural challenges the country faces in returning to a path of sustainable growth.

The latest data from INDEC's Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity show that, between December 2024 and May 2025, economic activity remained virtually frozen. "The official indicator of the level of activity has literally been stuck for five months," they noted, highlighting that the recovery halted once it reached pre-recession levels.

Even so, this level allows for positive year-over-year variations, which for the government means that "we are growing." For economists, "this is very good news, but it compares to the depths of the recession," downplaying the importance of these indicators when analyzed in historical perspective.

So far this year, GDP is estimated to have grown between 4% and 5%, but the recovery has been uneven across economic sectors. "Industry, which represents a quarter of GDP, is still 10 points below its pre-recession 2023 level," the economists noted, adding that "within the sector, there are branches with greater lags, such as steel, machinery and equipment, textiles, and food," key sectors for industrial employment and value-added exports.

Construction presents an even more complex picture. Although it represents around 4% of GDP, it has a significant impact on employment and other activities, but "it is producing 25% less than in 2023 and 20% less than the average of the last 13 years," which directly affects job creation for lower-income sectors and the demand for inputs from other industries.

Retail also shows mixed performance, as it " reached near-record levels, but with a disconnect between durable goods and consumer goods ," said Carlos Melconian. While cars, motorcycles, and household appliances showed some dynamism thanks to credit and financing programs, "sales in supermarkets, convenience stores, and wholesalers are 10% down compared to 2023," reflecting the continued restrictions on household consumption.