2026 Budget: The national government projects a dollar at $1,229 and inflation of 22.7% for this year.

The Ministry of Economy presented the 2026 Budget to Congress on Thursday, outlining the main fiscal and economic guidelines that will mark the end of this year and the roadmap for next year. In the document, the Executive Branch projects that 2025 will end with an official exchange rate of $1,229 , year-on-year inflation of 22.7% , and GDP growth of 5.5% .

According to the preliminary text, the government expects the official dollar to remain virtually stable in the coming months, despite the fact that the second half of the year, historically more challenging due to seasonal and political factors, still remains to be seen. The projected exchange rate represents a year-over-year increase of just 20.4%.

Regarding the peso's purchasing power, the document estimates that the bilateral real exchange rate with the dollar will fall by 8.6% , due to the fact that inflation estimated for 2025 is greater than the dollar's nominal value.

The Ministry of Finance anticipates that the economy will grow by 5.5% this year , with a strong boost from the agricultural sector, which is expected to close the year with a 2.1% expansion thanks to a soybean harvest of 49 million tons.

Meanwhile, industry and commerce , the two sectors with the greatest economic impact, are expected to register increases of 5.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Increases are also expected in investment (up 22.7%), private consumption (up 7.2%), and public consumption (up 5.0%).

Despite the positive outlook for production and consumption, the trade balance is expected to decline compared to 2024. The surplus would reach USD 4.913 billion , far from last year's USD 16.9 billion. This is due to an estimated 25.2% increase in imports, compared to more moderate growth in exports (+3.7%).

For next year, the government reaffirms that it will maintain fiscal balance as its central pillar , without announcing tax cuts or sweeping tax reforms for now. The document asserts that progress will be made in deregulating the state, ensuring national defense, internal security, and eliminating intermediaries in social policies.

In line with the current agreement with the IMF, the goal of achieving a primary surplus of 2.2% of GDP in 2026 is maintained, although the text does not detail numerical targets for inflation or the exchange rate.

In terms of taxes, treasury revenues are projected to increase by 22.3% year-on-year in 2026, which would represent an increase in tax burden from 22.23% of GDP in 2025 to 22.74% in 2026. This growth is explained by the progress of economic activity, foreign trade, and improvements in tax administration.

The main taxes would evolve as follows:

• VAT : +18.7%, although it would decrease slightly in proportion to GDP.
• Earnings : +23.2%, with greater relative weight in the product.
• Liquid fuels : +61.2%, due to inflation-adjusted prices.
• Personal Property : -13%, after the maximum rate was reduced from 1.25% to 1%.

Regarding export duties , a 66.7% year-on-year increase is expected, with their share rising from 1.07% to 1.50% of GDP. The government will not extend the temporary tax rate reductions implemented in January and finalized in July, reinforcing its stance of fiscal discipline.