Blackouts in Europe: How can this happen?

Herbert Saurugg has long warned of the danger of major power outages in Europe. As president of the Austrian Society for Crisis Preparedness, he has been dealing with blackout scenarios for many years: "There is no such thing as 100 percent security, and we as a society must be prepared for them," says Saurugg. Nevertheless, he was surprised by the extent of the power outage in Spain and Portugal. He considers the fact that it was largely resolved within twelve hours a "best-case scenario." In such an event, it could take longer – with unpleasant consequences.

"After 48 to 72 hours of outage, it becomes highly critical because then the emergency power supply and thus also telecommunications fail," says Saurugg. In Spain and Portugal, internet use and telephone calls were already impossible or very limited from the very beginning of the power outage. Drinking water supplies have also already failed in some places and cannot be guaranteed permanently without electricity.

It's important to plan measures to keep the infrastructure running for as long as possible in the event of an emergency, says Saurugg. And that everyone also takes precautions at home. While it's often recommended to stock up on about three days' worth of water and food, he even recommends a 14-day supply.

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In addition, something must change to make the European grid more secure. The system should not be controlled by a few central points as it is now, but by many small ones, the expert demands: "We need an energy cell system, with decentralized facilities that make it possible to regulate the power grids in smaller areas." Regardless of the cause – which is still unclear in the case of the blackout in Spain and Portugal – outages would then no longer affect an entire country so quickly. Such an adjustment of the system is also important to better manage the feed-in of renewable energies such as wind and solar power. This threatens to cause imbalances in the system more quickly, says Saurugg. Whether this was the cause of the outage in Spain is currently unknown, however.

Christian Rehtanz is the director of the Institute for Energy Systems, Energy Efficiency and Energy Economics at the Technical University of Dortmund. The European grid must always maintain a balance between electricity generation and consumption, he explains. "An imbalance of up to three gigawatts can be compensated for by power plants that can be ramped up quickly," says Rehtanz. "In Spain, however, 15 gigawatts were reportedly missing from the system, for reasons that are still unknown. That was far beyond the reserve." Such an event leads to the shutdown of power plants in the system. It can then only be restarted piecemeal.

The location of the Iberian Peninsula, which is externally connected only to France and not to other neighboring countries that could supply electricity, likely had an unfavorable effect. Blackouts in Germany, therefore, cannot be ruled out. However, it cannot easily happen that we are completely cut off from the power supply.

Even in the case of a nationwide outage like the one in Spain and Portugal, the supply can be largely restored within a day, says Rehtanz: "And within 48 hours at the latest, right down to the last corner." The fact that the power in Spain and Portugal gradually returned after about twelve hours is in line with what one would normally expect.

Wolfgang Fritz is the managing director of Consentec, an independent energy consulting firm. A blackout as large as the one in Spain and Portugal has occurred very, very rarely. The last comparable event was probably a power outage in Italy more than 20 years ago in 2003. The country was without power for a full 18 hours. "Since then, there have only been outages of a limited geographical and temporal nature," says Fritz.

He also sees the Iberian Peninsula's connection to the rest of Europe as a weak point. The transmission capacity of the line from France is limited. He, too, can only speculate about the exact cause of the blackout. However, Fritz believes it was likely an unfortunate chain of circumstances. "Something like this can happen when an unforeseen event occurs during a phase of grid stability problems," he says.

This could then trigger a chain reaction. Initial lines fail, followed by more and more, as the load on the power grid increases accordingly. It's important to remember that the automatic or deliberate shutdown of parts of the grid is a protective mechanism. "This is intended to prevent systems from breaking down and having to be repaired, which would take significantly longer than restarting the system after shutdown," says Fritz. Potential hacker attacks targeting the IT of the control systems could also delay restoration. However, the Spanish grid operators have ruled out cyberattacks as the cause of yesterday's power outage.

If no power systems are damaged and no external tampering has occurred, outages can usually be resolved within hours, says Fritz. He is surprised that things didn't go faster in Portugal – possibly because the cause remained unclear.