Formation of government: Election winner Merz explores options

Friedrich Merz has barely reached his goal when he is already faced with his first problem. It has been clear since early Monday morning that the designated Chancellor does not need the Greens in addition to the Social Democrats for his government majority - and that is only because the Sahra Wagenknecht coalition narrowly failed to reach the five percent hurdle with 4.97 percent. But Merz now faces a blocking minority in the Bundestag: a two-thirds majority, such as that required for a constitutional amendment, cannot be achieved in the new Bundestag without votes from the AfD or the Left Party. Six votes are missing for that. This restricts Merz's freedom of movement considerably.

The problem is acute, because the further increase in defense spending also depends on such a majority. Merz sees this as one of the greatest challenges of his chancellorship. "We Europeans must be able to act quickly," he said on Monday in Berlin. To do this, they must ensure their defense capability "very quickly." This, in turn, would require additional funds for the Bundeswehr - either through a special fund or by relaxing the debt brake . For both, the Basic Law would have to be changed, with the votes of two thirds of the Bundestag.

The Left Party, which to its own surprise now has 64 representatives in the newly elected Bundestag, made its position clear on Monday. The debt brake has always been considered wrong, said party leader Ines Schwerdtner. But: "We will not vote for rearmament." And thanks to its election success, the party is now in a position to set conditions.

There is still another possibility: the outgoing Bundestag could lay the foundation for higher defense spending before the legislative period officially ends. That is in a month, on March 24. Merz himself only hinted at this on Monday. He noted the blocking minority of the AfD and the Left "with great regret." He therefore wants to start talks with the SPD, Greens and FDP on the matter. After all, the FDP is still in the Bundestag, and together the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens can overcome the hurdle. There are "still four weeks to think about it" until March 24, said Merz.

Even current Chancellor Olaf Scholz only hinted at it on Monday. The point in this matter is to explore all possible options, said Scholz, who once again admitted his bitter defeat. A decision made by the old Bundestag at the last minute is "a rare occurrence, but not one that is happening for the very first time," said Scholz - and recalled the mandate for the Kosovo mission, the first military deployment of German soldiers since the Bundeswehr was founded. In October 1998, the MPs of the current legislative period had decided on this , even though the SPD and the Greens had just won the election.

The fact that the Green Party's candidate for chancellor is stepping down is just the start of a larger restructuring. After the disappointing performance in the federal election, many in the party are calling for a fresh start - and are questioning the entire course.

The Greens are the clearest on the day after the election. They will probably not be involved in a future government, and top candidate Robert Habeck has already announced that he no longer wants to seek a "leading role" in the Greens. But they have nothing against a short-term constitutional amendment. After all, a government that is now in office as a caretaker was elected by voters three years ago, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. But the initiative must come from Merz. In the FDP, party leader Christian Lindner referred to his parliamentary group - one day after he announced his retirement from politics.

Beyond this question, Friedrich Merz must then also form a coalition, with the Social Democrats as his only partner. He wanted to hold initial talks with the SPD leaders on Monday. However, they were initially reserved. "It is not yet clear whether a government will be formed," said SPD leader Lars Klingbeil. The talks will now decide that. While CSU leader Markus Söder has already warned that this coalition could also fail. "This is the last bullet of democracy," he said in Munich.