INTERVIEW - "The Germans need courage," says Timothy Garton Ash

Germany has voted. Can Europe be happy about the result, Mr Garton Ash?

Yes and no.

Yes and no?

It was an exemplary democratic election. Voter turnout was higher than it has been since reunification. There was also a clear result. That is a relief. Hopefully the CDU and SPD will now come to an agreement quickly.

But?

A fifth of all voters and even a third in East Germany voted for the AfD, a radical national populist party. That is shocking in a country with this history. In Germany, something that has already become normal in the rest of Europe is becoming normal.

What do you mean?

Think of the Rassemblement national in France, the FPÖ in Austria or the PiS in Poland. Strong national populist parties are now the norm in Europe. Germany is no longer an exception.

What does this mean for Germany?

The crucial question for Germany is: Will the liberal center succeed in making convincing reforms in the areas of security, economy, environment and social affairs? Reforms that are so convincing that the AfD will not be given the mandate to govern by the electorate in four years.

At the moment it looks more like the AfD is gaining influence.

At the moment it seems as if history is blowing in the direction of the right. Elon Musk supported the AfD during the election campaign, JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference was clear. For the first time, an American government is explicitly supporting an anti-liberal nationalist Europe. That would have been unthinkable until recently.

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He is one of the most influential historians in the world and advised Margaret Thatcher's government on German reunification. He is a fan of Thomas Mann, lived in East and West Berlin and speaks fluent German. Garton Ash also conducted this interview in German. He was born in London in 1955 and now researches and teaches contemporary European history at Oxford and Stanford Universities. He is a member of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities and a founding member of the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations. His latest book, "Europe. A Personal History," was published by Hanser-Verlag (448 pages, Fr. 46.90). igl.

What is in store for Europe now?

This is a question that, to my surprise, Friedrich Merz asked himself after the election. The seemingly eternal transatlanticist Friedrich Merz suddenly spoke about Europe's independence from the USA. He reminds us of Charles de Gaulle. That is really astonishing. Merz says that we must quickly make free, democratic and honest Europe stronger. We must make the Europe that supports Ukraine independent. The interesting question here is: what does independence mean?

And what does it mean?

The word can be interpreted in two ways. Firstly, in the sense of total independence. Europe would then be a superpower in its own right, in opposition to the USA. I think the second option is more likely: Europe should become less dependent. As in a relationship, you are often a better partner if you are less dependent on the other person.

So it is a good development if Europe emancipates itself from the USA?

It is miserable that it has to come to this. But now it is necessary. It is therefore good that the next Chancellor is calling for this so explicitly. Now we will see whether Friedrich Merz can implement it.

Can he?

It's the same with every head of government. We can assume, we can hope. I assume and hope so with Friedrich Merz. He has strategic clarity and great leadership qualities. But in the end, practice will have to show.

But that is a diplomatic answer.

The performance of a chancellor can only be assessed in retrospect. Nobody would have believed beforehand that neither Helmut Kohl nor Angela Merkel could become such influential politicians for Europe.

What role must Germany now play in Europe?

Germany is the central power on the continent. In terms of security policy, the situation is favorable for Friedrich Merz. There is already a coalition of the willing with France, Great Britain, Poland, the Scandinavian and Baltic states. Germany just needs to join this leadership group.

Europe needs to rearm. But how should individual countries finance this without endangering social peace?

Europe has a huge defense budget, but uses it incredibly inefficiently. Each country acts alone. Europe has more than 170 different weapons systems, America around 30. It would be easy to standardize them, as Friedrich Merz has already suggested. At the same time, Europe can also finance the armament together, for example with an arms bank or through debt.

Are you in favor of joint EU debt?

I am in favour of Europe considering together and without dogmatic reservations how it can make itself capable of defending itself again. As we all know, where there's a will, there's a way.

This is precisely what I would doubt for Germany.

German politicians have long been discussing the need for a unified European security policy. But they have not succeeded in convincing the German public of this. In principle, Germans are prepared to support Ukraine. Opinion polls show this. But what exactly does this support mean? Germany's politicians need to explain this better. They need to convince the doubters that it is necessary to rearm their own country. Willy Brandt was much more successful in this with his Eastern policy, as was Helmut Kohl with German and European unification.

What would you specifically recommend to Friedrich Merz?

He should immediately begin convincing the population. And he should be open to pragmatic, unconventional European solutions.

Unconventional European solutions?

If the Americans stopped supporting Ukraine, Europe would have to raise around 50 to 100 billion euros more per year. At the same time, around 300 billion dollars in Russian state funds are frozen in the EU. This money could be used to help Ukraine.

A state cannot simply access the assets of another state. This is questionable under international law.

That is why Germany has also resisted it. But it would be an unconventional and courageous solution. Something like that is needed.

You spoke of persuasion. In the German election campaign, none of the parties tried to score points with security policy.

The election campaign was short, but it began before Trump's inauguration on January 20. At that time, Germans felt that they were living in normal times. They had already gotten used to the war in Ukraine. The parties did not want to overwhelm people with security policy.

Did German politicians lack the courage to do so?

The Germans need courage, a lot of courage. Germany's economic model no longer works, and the country is facing domestic political challenges. The AfD and the Left now have a blocking minority in the Bundestag and can block changes to the constitution. The political center has been losing importance for decades. It will only become more difficult to form meaningful coalitions in the future. The political system in Germany was developed to avoid a second Hitler. Now it seems more like it is hindering itself.

How are the Germans supposed to take courage?

Germany is a chancellor democracy. Adenauer, Brandt and Kohl have shown that if a chancellor sets a clear direction, he has great opportunities. The chancellor has a strong position in the German system and can make many decisions. In order to be successful, he must also inspire and win over the Germans for his project. We must not underestimate this political psychology.

What Merz must do now is obvious.

Europe is threatened by Putin in the east and by Trump in the west. The bigger a crisis, the bigger the opportunity it presents. Merz should seize it.

Merz alone?

This applies to the whole of Europe. And by that I also mean those countries that are not in the European Union. Norway or Switzerland, for example. Great Britain is now trying to make a fresh start with the EU. They all play a role in this one task: we must save Europe as we know it today.