Bitcoin would now be significantly higher at the BTC-to-gold ratio from 2024!

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A comparison with other assets can provide an indication of a fair Bitcoin price, whereby digital gold can be compared to the real precious metal. In this article, you'll learn what this tells us about Bitcoin's future price development and its fair price.

Looking at Bitcoin's performance relative to gold, it has risen by 3,689,929,046% since 2010 , making an investment in BTC significantly more worthwhile. But even in a shorter timeframe of five years, the BTC-XAU ratio has increased by 284%.

This year, however, the trend has been somewhat different, with the BTC-XAU ratio declining by 21.58% . This is primarily due to the stronger performance of the gold price compared to Bitcoin. While the precious metal has risen from around USD 2,000 to USD 4,381 since 2024 alone, BTC has recently weakened somewhat.

Bitcoin-Gold Ratio | Source: Tradingview

Since October 17, however, Bitcoin has performed somewhat better again, and gold temporarily lost 8.50% . After all, the precious metal was also bought as a hedge during the trade war, which has now been partially resolved, while BTC was treated more as a risk asset than a safe haven.

Nevertheless, according to statements by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, the leading cryptocurrency is digital gold. It is also considered a hedge against inflation , primarily due to its deflationary tokenomics with a fixed total supply of 21 million BTC.

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Currently, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is 27.92 , meaning nearly 28 ounces of the precious metal are needed to purchase just 1 BTC. This is a significant increase from the market low in 2023, when it was around 9 ounces.

Since the ratio has increased steadily in the past, reaching the AZH is also possible. Furthermore , Bitcoin is strictly limited, while the precious metal can also be found in space and produced using fusion reactors.

As recently as November 2024, the BTC-to-gold ratio was at 40 ounces . Assuming the current Bitcoin price of $113,910 and a sideways gold price, BTC would trade at $165,100 , which is about 45% above current levels.

Relationship	Target price at 4,127 USD gold/oz	deviation
27.6 oz (current)	113,910 USD	underlying
30 oz	123,825 USD	9%
35 oz	144,460 USD	27%
40 oz	165,100 USD	45%

Bitcoin's upside potential is similar compared to the Nasdaq 100 , both of which have a high positive correlation and indicate Bitcoin's undervaluation by 40% . Ethereum, on the other hand, is even more attractively valued compared to BTC, with a price increase of around 100% on the horizon.

All of this points to rising crypto prices in the near future, unless the price of gold also falls, thus raising the prospect of lower Bitcoin prices. Numerous other catalysts are also driving this, such as favorable regulation, crypto treasuries, crypto ETFs, crypto reserves, increasing adoption, and more.

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