Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Is in Turmoil, but at Least He’s Getting a New Ride

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Welcome to this week’s edition of the Surge, a politics newsletter that, like RFK Jr., dutifully puts on its blue jeans and delves into the poison crap water of Washington, D.C.

This was the busiest week yet for House Republicans crafting their “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” as committees released and worked through the text. But like the Jets and the Sharks, moderates and conservatives still have an awful lot of menacing snapping to do at each other. Speaking of menacing gangs: Jim Comey and the Seashells may have finally gone a little too far.

But first up: Presents!

1.

Donald Trump

Early this week, reports emerged that Trump was “preparing” to accept a $400 million 747 as a gift from Qatar, which he would use as Air Force One and then transfer over to his presidential library when he left office. This is bad on about every level. The Qataris obviously know that Trump wants a new plane and will reward them with favors to be named later; the reconstruction of the “gift” for official presidential use will require substantial taxpayer dollars; and Trump can’t then just re-gift it to his presidential library. And most importantly, anyone who buys that he’s not planning to use this plane personally after his presidency, or to monetize it for his own benefit, needs to come to their senses. Also? If we may? It’s a bit chintzy for the United States of America to accept a used plane from another country for its presidential transport.

Even though some Republicans have expressed unease with the prospect, Trump himself has defended it in only the way he can. “They’re giving us a free jet,” Trump said. What’s to complain about? He then turned to a golf analogy to explain the wisdom of accepting gifts when offered. “When they give you a putt, you say, ‘Thank you very much.’ You pick up your ball, and you walk to the next hole,” he said. “A lot of people are stupid. They say, ‘No, no, I insist on putting it.’ Then they putt it, they miss it, and their partner gets angry at them.” Oh, good grief. Look, the Surge is a golf newsletter masquerading as a politics newsletter, and here’s the thing with Trump’s “analogy”… it’s actually flawless. Sorry! He may need to accept the plane?

2.

The SALT Caucus

The group causing GOP leadership the most headaches on the moderate side now is the so-called SALT Caucus, a handful of members from expensive, high-tax districts in New York and California arguing for a higher cap—or ideally, no cap at all—on the deductibility of state and local taxes. They’ve been feisty, openly battling with what they believe to be an unappreciative Ways and Means Committee that won’t go high enough. The source of their leverage, they believe, is that they’re all in battleground districts and deserve to be catered to—and also, if the 2017 tax cuts just expired at the end of the year, there would be no SALT cap anymore. Agreeing to any cap at all, in their pitch, comes out of the kindness of their hearts.

This is kind of baloney. Most people in their districts, even without a SALT cap, would see a tax increase if the 2017 tax cuts expired, since most people still wouldn’t itemize their deductions. And even though they’re in more moderate districts, becoming villains within their party (and to Donald Trump) by nuking the GOP’s signature legislation wouldn’t be a painless path forward. They’re asking for a highly expensive agenda item that most other House GOP members believe to be bad public policy. They’ll fall in line after another offer or two.

3.

Chip Roy

Moderates were also pleased that the most severe options for cutting Medicaid didn’t make it into the bill. Rather than structurally remake the program, the bill introduces new work requirements, tightens eligibility and applicant screening, punishes states that allow undocumented immigrants access to the program, cracks down on certain practices states use to maximize their federal share of dollars, and adds other touches here or there. Even these cuts, though, would cause nearly 8 million people to lose their coverage, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, whose ideal budget bill would solely fund bulldozers to raze the federal government and then self-destruct, don’t think this is nearly severe enough. Texas Rep. Chip Roy, their id, has been trashing the bill’s kid-gloves treatment of Medicaid on every social media platform or television network that will have him. While it’s likely too late to change the structure of the bill’s Medicaid section, though, there are some changes likely to be made to appease conservatives. For example: Right now, the new work requirements wouldn’t kick in until 2029. That’s likely to be moved up. Will that be enough? Would an afternoon field trip to a community health center where they get to kick people out of the waiting room scratch the itch?

4.

Mike Johnson

On Friday, a few conservatives, including Roy, blocked the megabill from advancing in the Budget Committee as these negotiations continue. Having watched a few messy reconciliation processes in the past, though, we’re going to stick our necks out and say: These problems all feel resolvable for House Speaker Mike Johnson. The two marquee issues discussed above can be dealt with in an obvious trade: Having Medicaid work requirements kick in sooner in exchange for a somewhat higher SALT cap. (Mike, you can pay us our consulting fee, $2.5 billion, through the bill as well.) There will be dozens of other dinky parochial interests from individual members to tend to as well, but that’s standard.

Can they successfully pass the megabill in the House before Johnson’s self-imposed Memorial Day weekend deadline, though? That’s next weekend. Hell, the Surge is already loading its cooler. As people who believe they were put on earth to snatch federally funded insulin doses from poor people vie for supremacy against the leaders of downtrodden Westchester County homeowners, these final stages will be turbulent. Delays are to be expected. But we don’t see any faction—yet—with a good reason to kill their beloved president’s One Big, Beautiful Bill.

5.

Brett Guthrie

There was a telling moment during the Energy and Commerce Committee’s marathon consideration of its piece of the reconciliation bill this week. Some GOP members only learned well into the process of a key change in it: It would require some Medicaid beneficiaries to pay copays of $35 for certain services. “That was a new element that … had not been discussed with us before,” freshman swing-district Rep. Ryan Mackenzie told Politico.

This is a small anecdote to illustrate a large and obvious point: Delays on this bill would be good, because if there’s so much policy in this bill that even members are missing things, how much does the public know? Another example, also in E&C’s bailiwick, is a priority of the committee chairman, Brett Guthrie. Tucked into Section 43201 of the bill, subsection (c), is a provision that “states that no state or political subdivision may enforce any law or regulation regulating artificial intelligence models, artificial intelligence systems, or automated decision systems during the 10-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act.” Ho-hum, just a little clause about how no state government is allowed to regulate the biggest emerging technology in the world for the next decade. That alone is a major piece of legislation. What else is in this bill? Maybe everyone takes a beat, here?

6.

Stephen Miller

Most close followers of politics (you, treasured readers) understand that Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff for policy and a decade-long survivor of Trumpworld, is a powerful dude. And yet, the extent of that influence still isn’t fully appreciated. A few pieces this week peeled back the curtain a little further on how he is, effectively, running the Trump administration.

An NBC News story this week described Miller as more important than either Vice President J.D. Vance or chief of staff Susie Wiles. He is, after all, the guiding force behind the flurry of executive orders the president signs and its immigration and border security agenda. As the New York Times reported this week, he’s also effectively giving orders to Attorney General Pam Bondi on how to run the Justice Department. He’s also in the running to become the next national security adviser. But, as NBC noted, that would be an effective demotion for him—he already runs that too, as evidenced by the time he shut down Vance’s objections in the infamous Signal chat about bombing Yemen. So when you see stories about, say, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem considering immigration reality shows or doing photo ops from foreign prisons and wonder, Don’t these secretaries have any real work to do? The answer is: not really. The deputy chief of staff is on it.

7.

James Comey

The former FBI director, disliked in equal measure by Republicans, Democrats, and Martha Stewart, is incapable of exiting public life. He cannot walk on the beach without embroiling himself in national controversy. This week, he posted on his Instagram a picture of a beach shell formation reading “8647” with the caption “Cool shell formation on my beach walk.” This is a dumb internet thing, where “86” means to nix, get rid of, eject, etc., while “47” is the 47^th president, Donald Trump. Just like “8646” was a dumb internet thing during Joe Biden’s presidency.

Now: Should Comey have been smart enough to know that MAGA might twist his Instagram post into a threat against Trump? He should have been, but we have strong evidence at this point that he’s not. Nevertheless, the full response to this from the highest levels of the Trump administration, as if a nuclear bomb in Times Square was 10 minutes from detonation, has been predictably ludicrous. FBI Director Kash Patel said the Bureau was coordinating its response with the Secret Service. Also coordinating with the Secret Service is Noem, who said Comey had “called for the assassination” of Trump. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard similarly said that Comey was issuing a “hit” on Trump and should be put “behind bars.” And Trump, of course, thinks that Comey called for his assassination, too. Everyone needs to lighten up! Summer is upon us, and we’re all about to get rich forever from tax cuts financed by the closure of rural hospitals.