USMNT vs. Mexico, where to watch live stream: Concacaf Gold Cup prediction, picks, odds, projected lineups

The Gold Cup final has finally arrived and it's fitting that it's a meeting between the United States men's national team and Mexico. During a topsy-turvy tournament, both have survived to make their way to the final, but with very different rosters. Mexico is led by veteran stalwarts Edson Alvarez and Raul Jimenez, and El Tri have gone through everything in their path and will meet their regional rivals with a chance to win their third consecutive Concacaf title on the line.

For the USMNT, on the other hand, it's been a tournament defined by not having some of the biggest names in the player pool available for this tournament. Mauricio Pochettino has been able to see growth from players like Diego Luna, Matt Freese, and Malik Tillman, which could also lead to some major moves for members of the USMNT ahead of the 2026 World Cup on home soil. They'll need to take another step forward in order to topple Mexico at this stage. But if they can do it, some spots may be locked in on Pochettino's roster for 2026.

Here are storylines, how you can watch the match and more:

How to watch USMNT vs. Mexico, odds

• Date: Sunday, July 6 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: NRG Stadium -- Houston, Texas
• TV: FOX | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
• Odds: USMNT +190; Draw +210; Mexico +145

Last meeting

This will be Pochettino's second time pitting the USMNT against El Tri, and there will need to be improvement. The USMNT were overmatched in the first meeting in October of 2024, losing 2-0 in Mexico's send-off game for midfielder Andres Guardado. That match did take place in Mexico versus a first-choice squad, while Christian Pulisic didn't start for the USMNT, but even with this one taking place in the United States, Pochettino will have to overcome not having his regular roster. With the combination of injuries, the Club World Cup, and rest, numerous players who are expected to be in the World Cup squad won't be here. While that does create challenges for Pochettino, it also creates opportunities for the players who are involved.

Call it What You Want: A weekly podcast where Jimmy Conrad, Charlie Davies and Tony Meola cover all things USMNT and the state of the beautiful game in the United States. Catch the show YouTube live every Tuesday and Thursday at 10 a.m. ET.

USMNT vs Mexico history

These two teams first met in 1934 and have now met a total of 78 times with Mexico winning 37, the USMNT winning 24, and the other 17 ending in draws. This will be the 11th meeting in a cup final with things going in waves of dominance between the two nations. Mexico have won six of those finals, with the USMNT winning four. This is a chance for the USMNT to stop Mexico from winning a third straight Concacaf championship and looking to reestablish their success from 2021-2024, during which the USMNT won three consecutive Cup finals over El Tri.

Predicted lineups

USMNT: Matt Freese, Max Arfsten, Tim Ream, Chris Richards, Alex Freeman, Tyler Adams, Luca De La Torre, Diego Luna, Malik Tillman, Jack McGlynn, Patrick Agyemang

Mexico: Luis Malagon, Mateo Chavez, Johan Vazquez, Cesar Montes, Julian Arujo, Marcel Ruiz, Edson Alvarez, Gilberto Mora, Alexis Vega, Raul Jimenez, Roberto Alvarado

Player to watch

Diego Luna, USMNT: Luna doing the aura farming celebration after scoring the USMNT's second goal against Guatemala says all that you need to know about how this camp has gone for him. With three goals and two assists in five matches played so far during this tournament, Luna is doing everything he can to earn Pochettino's trust and his way into the World Cup squad. Giving everything that he has for the badge, if the USMNT are going to topple Mexico, Luna will play a big role in that happening.

Storyline to watch

How far has this team come under Pochettino? With Pochettino transitioning from club management to international management, one of the biggest differences is the change in training time that he gets with players. Camps are short and he has to develop tactics that can be picked up on the fly by the players. But this is the longest competitive camp that Pochettino has overseen, not only giving him a chance to see what the players can do but also giving them time to get used to his style.

There has been growth in midfield and attack during the camp so far but it still needs to be shown in defense ahead of facing a tough Mexico squad. This is where Pochettino's tactics come into play to guide the USMNT past this challenge. They may not be on the same level player for player, but giving their all for the badge, an upset is possible.

Prediction

After wrestling with if he should represent the USMNT or Mexico, Luna will find the back of the net against El Tri but it won't be enough for the USMNT to pick up a victory. This Mexico team is well drilled and in good form, so even going behind, they'll claw back to secure victory and their third consecutive Concacaf title. Pick: USMNT 1, Mexico 2

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