UFC Fight Night: Expert picks, best bets for Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang

The UFC returns to China for the first time since 2019 for a Fight Night (6 a.m. ET; prelims at 3 a.m. ET on ESPN+) headlined by Zhang Mingyang, who has three first-round knockouts in his first three UFC bouts. His opponent, Johnny Walker, is the only other person in history to have won his first three UFC fights by first-round KO. But that was 2018-19. Since then, Walker has a 4-6-1 record that includes knockout losses in his past two outings. Zhang, a significant betting favorite, hasn't lost an MMA fight since October 2019.

The co-main event features two top-10 featherweights in ESPN's divisional rankings, Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling. Both fighters are good on the ground -- each has four wins by submission since 2015.

ESPN MMA analyst and commentator Din Thomas provides his main event prediction, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.

Light heavyweight main event

Thomas: Zhang by TKO. Johnny Walker is still too chinny for me. I think Zhang has good punching power and good accuracy. He's also got very good killer instincts, which all spell disaster for Johnny Walker. It's also a home game for Zhang in China, so that's a wrap for Johnny.

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of Aug. 21. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Zhang to win (-350); under 1.5 rounds (-325): Do not blink when it comes to this matchup between Zhang and Walker because both fighters are known for ending fights early. However, Walker has been knocked out in his past two fights against Volkan Oezdemir and Magomed Ankalaev, and Zhang has knocked out all three of his UFC opponents in the first round. This feels like another KO loss for Walker and possibly an exit from the UFC. Make Zhang the anchor to your parlay or take him to win by KO/TKO and under 1.5 rounds for better odds.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the UFC cardFeatherweight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Brian Ortega

Over 4.5 rounds. In the five-round co-main event, former bantamweight champion Sterling takes on former featherweight title challenger Ortega. Ortega has the striking advantage in this matchup, so look for him to defend against Sterling's wrestling by trying to keep the fight standing. If he does get put on his back, Ortega has excellent Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to defend well and minimize the damage taken. This fight feels like it's going to go into deep waters regardless of who wins, so at least take the over 4.5 rounds. For better odds, take the fight to go the distance.

Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Pavlovich to win (-250). Pavlovich is a major step up in competition for Cortes-Acosta. In his most recent fight, Cortes-Acosta got a decision victory over Serghei Spivac that some, including me, saw differently than the judges. Pavlovich carries tremendous power in his hands, has good accuracy and can take this fight to the floor if needed. I don't see any path to victory for Cortes-Acosta.