Stanley Cup Playoffs 2025: Picks, predictions for every first-round series, including Panthers vs. Lightning
The first-round matchups are set for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and 16 teams will begin their journey toward hockey's ultimate prize. Only eight of them will make it past this first round, and we're here making picks for which teams will stay alive to fight another round.
In the Eastern Conference, the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers have all the ingredients to repeat, but they face a tough matchup against their rivals the Tampa Bay Lightning. Florida took down Tampa en route to a Cup a year ago, but the Bolts have reloaded for this rematch.
In another rivalry clash, the heavily-favored Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the Ottawa Senators in the Battle of Ontario. For the first time in 21 years, those two Canadian squads will meet in the postseason.
The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars will meet with one of the two Western Conference juggernauts exiting in the first round. Dallas has made two consecutive conference final appearances, but getting back a third time will be tough.
For the fourth straight season, the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers will match up in the opening round. The Kings have lost the previous three meetings, but there's an opportunity for them to turn the tide in 2025.
Before the 2025 NHL playoffs begin, here are our expert picks for every first-round winner.
Eastern ConferenceCapitals vs. CanadiensSeries odds: Capitals -275, Canadiens +220 (via FanDuel)
Nivison: No team enters these playoffs with better vibes than these two. The Capitals have been riding high all season, cruising to 51 wins while Alex Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky's scoring record. The Canadiens are a rebuilding team whose youth exploded on the scene to help them sneak into the final playoff spot.
I also think both teams are a little fortunate to be where they are. The Capitals have been very good, but I don't think their underlying profile suggests a Stanley Cup contender. The Canadiens are one of the worst five-on-five teams in the league, and they have a minus-20 goal differential. In this particular series, I trust the Capitals' experience, depth and defense over that of Montreal. The Habs get a couple in the Bell Center, but that's it. Pick -- Capitals def. Canadiens 4-2
Bengel: While I do believe the Capitals overachieved at times throughout the regular season, I also think the Canadiens aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. As evident in their 2.96 goals per game, I don't think that the Canadiens have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Capitals. I do think the Canadiens can steal a game at home due to the fact that Sam Montembeault is a capable netminder, but that's about it. Even with the uncertainty surrounding goalie Logan Thompson's status, the Capitals would have to have a really bad series to not come out on top. Pick -- Capitals def. Canadiens 4-2
Hurricanes vs. DevilsSeries odds: Hurricanes -280, Devils +225
Nivison: Let's not bury the lede here. No Jack Hughes makes it very hard to pick the Devils in this series. Since Hughes went down with a season-ending injury, New Jersey has posted a 48.0% expected goals share and a minus-16 goal differential. That's not great considering the Devils' opponent is one of the best five-on-five teams in the league. New Jersey's third-ranked power play could level the playing field, but Carolina's top-ranked penalty kill might have something to say about that.
Then again, the Hurricanes aren't without warts themselves. A lack of elite scorers remains a problem, one exacerbated by the fact that neither Martin Necas nor Mikko Rantanen are around anymore. Another question mark is the matter of the Canes' goaltending situation. Frederik Andersen has battled the injury bug all year, and Pyotr Kochetkov's play has been uneven. That means Jacob Markstrom could steal a game or two in this series, but it remains an uphill battle for New Jersey. Pick -- Hurricanes def. Devils 4-2
Bengel: While the Devils have taken a hit offensively without Hughes, the Hurricanes' scoring depth isn't insanely deep after moving on from Mikko Rantanen at the trade deadline. It is worth noting that Carolina did rack up 261 goals in five-on-five play, but are probably going to be asking an awful lot of Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis this postseason. Couple that with the inconsistent goaltending play that Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov have given them in recent years, and it's not an ideal scenario. Even though I expected a fairly low-scoring series, the Hurricanes should be able to come out on top. Pick -- Hurricanes def. Devils 4-1
Maple Leafs vs. SenatorsSeries odds: Maple Leafs -192, Senators +158
Nivison: If you believe that star power wins playoff games, then the pick here shouldn't be that difficult. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson are very good to great players for the Senators. However, they are not on the level of Toronto's Core Four featuring Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. Now the Leafs can throw in Matthew Knies, who broke out for 29 goals this season. Toronto's roster has the edge at the top of the lineup.
Having said all that, I am given some pause by Toronto's middling underlying numbers. The Maple Leafs haven't been a strong five-on-five team in terms of scoring chances and expected goals. In fact, the Senators have been slightly better than the Leafs in some areas. Ultimately, the difference may come down to the finishing ability of both teams. Toronto capitalized on more of its scoring chances with 263 goals (7th) to the Senators' 235 (21st). Besides, the Maple Leafs' improved defense will only make life tougher on Ottawa. Pick -- Maple Leafs def. Senators 4-2
Bengel: In recent years, the common theme for the Maple Leafs has been a spectacular regular season and falling short in the opening round of the playoffs. However, it could be a different story this time around. The level of talent is very much swayed in Toronto's favor with the likes of Auston Matthews and William Nylander pacing the Maple Leafs' offensive attack. While not being an elite five-on-five team at times, the Maple Leafs do have a +33 goal differential compared to a -17 on the Senators side of things. It also doesn't hurt that their goaltender tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz has been rock solid throughout much of the season.
The biggest issue with the Senators is the fact that many of their young stars have yet to suit up in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The experience factor doesn't always matter, but the Maple Leafs have been through this on several occasions. Both teams are in the upper half of the league in terms of the power-play, while being fairly evenly matched on the penalty kill. This is a series that could have some fireworks, but I just can't see Matthews and company exiting stage left in the opening round this year. Pick -- Maple Leafs def. Senators 4-2
Lightning vs. PanthersSeries odds: Panthers -118, Lightning -102
Nivison: For the fourth time in the last five years, we get to see the Battle of Florida in the playoffs. The Panthers finally slayed the blue-and-white dragon last season, and they return with a ring on their finger for this matchup. They'll need that experience because a reloaded Tampa team also has its eyes on another Cup run with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevskiy leading the way. Over the last couple months, the Bolts have been rounding into form while the Panthers have been treading water.
A big reason for Florida's middling results has been Matthew Tkachuk's absence, and while he could be ready for Game 1, how effective will he be? Additionally, Aaron Ekblad will miss the first two games of the series while completing his suspension. Can Tkachuk and Ekblad slide right back into the lineup without issue? They need to because there is no room for shaking off the rust in the seven-game series. I expect a tight series between these two rivals, but I'm going to take the team playing better hockey down the stretch. Pick -- Lightning def. Panthers 4-3
Bengel: The Sunshine State will take center stage in one of the most anticipated series of the opening round. The Panthers were finally able to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup after being dispatched of by the Golden Knights in 2024. It's hard to imagine a reigning Stanley Cup champion being an underdog in a first-round series, but that's exactly what the landscapes looks like for this matchup.
The biggest storyline heading into this series is whether or not the Panthers will have the services of Matthew Tkachuk. Tkachuk has been sidelined with a lower-body injury that he suffered in the 4 Nations Face-Off. While it appears that there's a good chance he'll suit up, Tkachuk might not be operating at 100% and we've seen how big of a role he has played in Florida's success over the last two postseasons. On the other hand, the Lightning are clicking on all cylinders right now, and honestly might be the team to beat in the East. Nikita Kucherov led the league in points (121) and Jake Guentzel produced a 40-goal campaign in his first season with the Lightning. Ultimately, I just think the Panthers are too banged up and it's so hard not to back the Lightning considering the run they're on. Pick -- Lightning def. Panthers 4-3
Western ConferenceWinnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis BluesSeries odds: Jets -225, Blues +184
Nivison: The Jets essentially went wire-to-wire as the top team in the Central, one of the toughest divisions to win in the league. So, why is this matchup with a wild card team so hard to pick? Probably because the Blues were one of the hottest teams in the NHL for the better part of three months as they made their playoff push. Jim Montgomery came into St. Louis in November and transformed the team into an elite defensive group.
The Blues will need that defensive prowess to take on a Jets team that scored 273 goals, tied for fourth in the league. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor combined for 79 of those goals, and Gabe Vilari added another 27. Beyond all that scoring, did I mention that Winnipeg has the best goalie in the world in the form of Connor Hellebuyck? Between Hellebuyck and a Blues team that doesn't give up many chances, I do think this will be a low-scoring series. When the margins are that slim, it sets up nicely for a couple fortunate bounces and an upset. Pick -- Blues def. Jets 4-3
Bengel: The Jets captured the Presidents' Trophy as the NHL's point leader during the regular season. However, winning the Presidents' Trophy has often been the kiss of death for teams in recent years. Since the 2007-08 season, only two Presidents' Trophy winners have won the Stanley Cup, so luck certainly isn't on Winnipeg's side. Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck will need to prove he can get it done on the biggest stage, but he is coming off of a regular season in which he was arguably the best goalie in the league.
Meanwhile, the Blues are entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the NHL. This is a group that has won 13 of its final 16 games to close out the regular season. St. Louis possesses a strong one-two scoring punch in the form of Jordan Kyrou (36 goals) and Robert Thomas (81 points), but forward depth could be an issue against a strong defensive team like the Jets. While the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers is a hit to Winnipeg's forwards, I still trust the Jets to put the puck in the net at this level. It'll be a hard-fought series, but I think the Jets do just enough to avoid being knocked off in the opening round. Pick -- Jets def. Blues 4-3
Stars vs. AvalancheSeries odds: Avalanche -170, Stars +140
Nivison: In my most anticipated series of the first round, we get two bona fide Stanley Cup contenders going head-to-head. The stakes couldn't be higher for two teams that dealt away future assets to go all-in this year. The Stars were the more consistent team for most of the season, but Colorado's savvy moves have put the team in a position to win its second Cup in four years.
The Stars' forward depth is unmatched. They have eight 20-goal scorers, and Tyler Seguin will be back for Game 1. Dallas has a lethal top-nine, but it's vulnerable on the back end. Without Miro Heiskanen, who might return at some point in the season, the defense has been the worst in the NHL at suppressing expected goals. That's bad news against an Avalanche team with dynamic offensive threats like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Martin Necas. In a high-scoring series, the Stars' can't quite outscore their defensive woes. Pick -- Avalanche def. Stars 4-2
Bengel: This is kind of series that you'll need to get your popcorn ready for because it's going to be an all-out war. It's a shame one of these teams will be going home after just one round, but alas, here we are. The Stars pushed all their chips to the center when they went out and landed Mikko Rantanen in a trade with the Hurricanes. Dallas added Rantanen to a forward depth that is among the deepest in all of the NHL, especially up the middle. However, being without defenseman Miro Heiskanen is certainly not ideal when facing the firepower that the Avalanche boast.
The Avalanche may have dealt Rantanen out of town, but they replaced him with the likes of Martin Necas and Brock Nelson. If anyone can hang with the offensive pieces that Dallas has in place, it's Colorado. Obviously, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are two of the biggest offensive threats on the ice, but the secondary scoring could prove to be the different. Forward Artturi Lehkonen was a key cog during Colorado's 2022 Stanley Cup run, and Valeri Nischushkin could be quite an asset after a strong finish to the regular season. There figures to be a ton of goals throughout this series and it'll be a tight affair, but I'll back the team that is battle-tested. Pick -- Avalanche def. Stars 4-2
Golden Knights vs. WildSeries odds: Golden Knights -235, Wild +190
Nivison: It's a little tough to evaluate this Wild team because the lineup was ravaged by injuries for a majority of the season. Early on, Minnesota looked very good when everyone was healthy, but the team hasn't played at that level in a while. Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek are back now, and that gives the Wild a chance in the series, but they don't have the high-end talent or depth to keep up with their opponent.
The Golden Knights once again look every bit like a true Stanley Cup threat with Jack Eichel turning in a 93-point campaign, Tomas Hertl settling in and a deep blue line. While Vegas may struggle on the penalty kill, its power play is second best in the league. There's always a chance Filip Gustavsson outplays Adin Hill and leads Minnesota to an upset, but Vegas is simply deeper and more skilled. Pick -- Golden Knights def. Wild 4-1
Bengel: The Wild have some talented offensive pieces in the form of Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek. Even with that in mind, this is a team that ranked 26th in scoring this season with just 2.74 goals per contest. Even if this is a heathy group, I just think that Minnesota could be quite overmatched in this series.
The Golden Knights didn't have to scratch and claw to reach the Stanley Cup Playoffs like they did a season ago. Star center Jack Eichel produced a career year, while Vegas boasted a very deep forward group despite losing original misfit Jonathan Marchessault in free agency. The Golden Knights are scoring 3.34 goals per game -- good for fifth in the league -- and figure to make life extremely difficult for Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson. This Golden Knights team could certainly be poised for a deep Stanley Cup run and should cruise in their opening round series. Pick -- Golden Knights def. Wild 4-1
Kings vs. OilersSeries odds: Oilers -132, Kings +110
Nivison: For the fourth time in as many years, these Pacific Division rivals will meet in the first round. The first three rounds all went to the Oilers, but will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings? Maybe. There's reason to believe this is the best chance Los Angeles has had to get past Edmonton, but the Oilers still have a couple trump cards on their side.
Offense, or a lack of it, has been the Kings' Achilles heel in previous matchups. That's still a bit of a concern, but less so now. For starters, L.A. scored 64 goals in the last month, the most of any team in that stretch. Beyond that, the Oilers have ruled out shutdown defenseman Mattias Ekholm for the first round, and their goaltending hasn't exactly been stellar. Then again, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are on Edmonton's side, and they are very hard to pick against. They can change a series on their own, but the Kings look like the better team heading into the series. Pick -- Kings def. Oilers 4-3
Bengel: Stop if you've heard this before: the Kings and Oilers are doing battle in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It's tied for the most consecutive opening round meetings since the postseason expanded to 16 teams in 1980. The Oilers have been victorious in each of the last three editions of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but this may be the Kings best shot to come out on top.
The Kings have been one of the league's better scoring teams this season, including netting at least five goals in four of their last five contests. Los Angeles may not have a lethal playmaker on the level of a Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala can put the puck in the net at will. From a goaltending standpoint, Kings netminder Darcy Kuemper has enjoyed a resurgence since being traded to the team this past offseason. According to MoneyPuck, Kuemper has a .963 save percentage when facing unblocked shots this season, which he'll likely be tasked with doing more of against McDavid and Draisaitl. The difference in this series might be the fact that the Oilers will be without defenseman Mattias Ekholm. Between that and some shaky Oilers goaltending, the Kings have what it takes to win this series. Pick -- Kings def. Oilers 4-3
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