Prisco's Week 1 NFL picks: Jets spoil Aaron Rodgers' debut with Steelers, Bills beat Ravens, more predictions
Let me start the 2025 NFL picks column with a factual statement:
My picks stunk last year.
It was not my best season when it came to NFL picks. I wasn't the worst of my CBSSports.com experts picks crew, but it wasn't very good. None of us really were.
That changes now.
It's a new season, which means like every fan base and every team, optimism is a part of my equation. I will be better. I have to be better.
Week 1 picks are always a challenge, but I feel pretty good about these. The record is 0-0 right now, so the slate is clean.
New season. New hope. Plenty of belief in my picks.
Last season is in the rear-view mirror, so let's get this damn season started -- and quit showing my 2024 record.
All times ET
Bet NFL Week 1 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Click here to get started:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta FalconsSunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Bucs are the favorites in the division, but the Falcons are considered the top threat. That makes this a big opener. Both teams have injuries on their offensive lines, which could impact the game, but I think Baker Mayfield is ready for a big year. The Falcons still have some defensive questions, which will show up. Michael Penix Jr. won't keep up. Bucs take it.
Pick: Bucs 28, Falcons 24 | Odds via BetMGM
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The battle of Ohio is always interesting, and this one should be no different. This is Joe Flacco against Joe Burrow, which is a big edge for the Bengals. They should continue where they left off last year rolling up big offensive numbers. The defense has questions, but the Browns won't be able to keep up. It's close, but Burrow wins it.
Pick: Bengals 30, Browns 27 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1)Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This will be Daniel Jones making his Colts debut at quarterback against a Miami secondary that isn't exactly filled with premier playmakers at corner. It's a great chance for Jones. The Dolphins should be able to have success throwing it on the other side, especially if Tyreek Hill is back healthy. Look for a high-scoring game, with the Colts finding a way at home.
Pick: Colts 33, Dolphins 30 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This is the debut for Jaguars head coach Liam Coen, who should liven up the offense. Look for Trevor Lawrence to play well here and keep an eye on the Travis Hunter usage. The Panthers feel good about Bryce Young after last season, but I think the Jaguars get the best of him here. Jaguars take it.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Panthers 21 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at New England PatriotsSunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This is a long first trip for the Pete Carroll-led Raiders. The Patriots will have Mike Vrabel making his debut as coach as well. The Patriots should be improved this season, but I think Geno Smith will do enough here to pull it out late. Carroll gets more revenge against the team that fired him.
Pick: Raiders 24, Patriots 23 Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (+6.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
Opening on the road in the NFL is always a tough thing to do, even if this is a Saints team that isn't expected to be that good. The Cardinals will be much improved over last season on defense, and I think that shows up in this one. They will limit Spencer Rattler as they get a road victory, but it won't be easy.
Pick: Cardinals 23, Saints 20 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+2.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This is the return of Aaron Rodgers to face the Jets in what should be the top storyline to highlight the game. But it's also Jets quarterback Justin Fields against his former team from last season. This has the look of a defensive battle with the Jets finding a way at home.
Pick: Jets 20, Steelers 16 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
New York Giants (+6) at Washington CommandersSunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
Russell Wilson makes his Giants debut at quarterback, and does so with rookie Jaxson Dart looking over his shoulder. He better play well early. The Commanders will counter with Jayden Daniels in his second season after an impressive rookie showing. The Giants can get after the quarterback, which could be a problem for Daniels. The Commanders will win it, but it's close.
Pick: Commanders 26, Giants 23 | Odds via BetMGM
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This will be Cameron Ward's first NFL start for the Titans, and he's making it against one of the league's best defenses in one of the toughest places to play. That's tough sledding. I look for Bo Nix to have success throwing it for Denver on the other side. The Broncos get off to a fast start, while the defense closes the door by limiting Ward.
Pick: Broncos 26, Titans 13 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle SeahawksSunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The 49ers have won seven of the last eight in this series, but Seattle won the last one last November. These teams are a lot different now. The 49ers were banged up last year, but Christian McCaffrey and left tackle Trent Williams are two of their stars who are back. That will matter. The Seahawks will have Sam Darnold making his first start at quarterback. It's always tough to play at Seattle, but the 49ers know how to win there. They will again.
Pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 17 | Odds via BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
These are two of the better teams in the NFC, which is a great way to open the season. The Lions have two new coordinators on offense and defense, which is something to watch. The Packers appear to be all-in with the move to get Micah Parsons from Dallas. How much can he impact this game without taking part in camp is a big question. This has the look of a game with a lot of points with Jordan Love pulling it out late.
Pick: Packers 35, Lions 30 | Odds via BetMGM
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3)Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
Rams quarterback Matt Stafford has been limited all summer with a back injury, which has to be a concern. But he will start and they say he's fine. He faces a fierce Texans defense. C.J. Stroud is trying to bounce back from his sophomore slump, but his offensive line might not be much better than it was a year ago. The Rams get after him and win it.
Pick: Rams 23, Texans 17 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1)Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This is the premier game of the week, featuring two of the Super Bowl favorites. The Bills beat the Ravens in the playoffs last year, so Lamar Jackson and gang are looking for payback. I don't think they get it. Being on the road on a Sunday night for your opener is a tough thing to overcome, but it's really tough because of the opponent. Josh Allen and the Bills will win a close one.
Pick: Bills 34, Ravens 31 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+1.5)Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This will be J.J. McCarthy making his first NFL start at quarterback for the Vikings, while Ben Johnson makes his coaching debut for the Bears. The Chicago offense with Caleb Williams should be better with Johnson, while McCarthy is a big unknown. Making your first start on the road is always tough. This will be no different. Bears take it in a small upset.
Pick: Bears 27, Vikings 21 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
cbssports
