Predicting every Champions League league phase game: Real Madrid to finish first, Barcelona, PSG close behind
The Champions League is back and with it comes the most herculean task of my year, perhaps even of my life: predicting every single game of the league phase of the competition. That's 144 games of football, all "carefully" considered and assessed such that they coalesce into a table of European football's outstanding teams. And what exactly did you do at work today?
My credentials for this task. Simple: this is the man who last season predicted a Manchester City, Real Madrid one-two, Leipzig riding high in the top eight and Brest and Lille both crashing out in the league phase. I did, however, correctly see that PSV Eindhoven and AC Milan would be in the 13th/14th region. So yeah, maybe don't bet the big bucks on these.
Matchweek 1- Athletic Club 1, Arsenal 2
- PSV Eindhoven 1, Union St. Gilloise 2
- Real Madrid 3, Marseille 0
- Juventus 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
- Benfica 4, Qarabag 0
- Tottenham 2, Villarreal 2
- Slavia Prague 1, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Olympiacos 3, Pafos 1
- Bayern Munich 2, Chelsea 1
- Ajax 1, Inter 2
- Liverpool 2, Atletico Madrid 0
- Paris Saint-Germain 3, Atalanta 1
- Copenhagen 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0
- Club Brugge 0, Monaco 0
- Newcastle 1, Barcelona 3
- Manchester City 2, Napoli 0
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Galatasaray 0
- Sporting 2, Kairat 0
The opening round of Champions League games largely goes in the direction you might expect. The very big games are won by the superior teams and Liverpool's 2-0 win over Atletico Madrid is particularly cruel in its comprehensiveness. It is hard not to worry how Diego Simeone's side, slow out of the blocks early this season, will fare in the weeks ahead.
Indeed, these early games prove to be tough on plenty of the teams who are still getting themselves together. In particular Newcastle's attack can't match the firepower of a fully-functioning Barcelona. Those autumnal troubles do lead to one notable upset in week one. Kasper Hjulmand just hasn't had time to get his Bayer Leverkusen side clicking into gear, and they fall away to Copenhagen.
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Matchweek 2- Kairat 1, Real Madrid 4
- Atalanta 2, Club Brugge 0
- Pafos 1, Bayern Munich 0
- Chelsea 2, Benfica 0
- Inter 1, Slavia Prague 0
- Galatasaray 2, Liverpool 2
- Atletico Madrid 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 1
- Marseille 0, Ajax 0
- Bodo/Glimt 1, Tottenham 3
- Qarabag 1, Copenhagen 2
- Union St. Gilloise 1, Newcastle 3
- Borussia Dortmund 2, Athletic Club 1
- Barcelona 2, Paris Saint-Germain 3
- Monaco 1, Manchester City 2
- Bayer Leverkusen 2, PSV Eindhoven 2
- Arsenal 3, Olympiacos 1
- Villarreal 1, Juventus 1
- Napoli 2, Sporting 0
Big upsets tended to come early in the Champions League's old group stage setup. It makes sense, even the most diligent scouting by Europe's big guns can't really predict how Kairat will play when Real Madrid roll into town. Of course, the Kazakh side aren't quite good enough to pull off the upset but Pafos prove themselves to be. They have talented players and it helps no end that at some unknowable moment in their recent history Bayern Munich stopped becoming the team that avoided such calamitous upsets.
Week two also delivers the game of the league phase. Of course it does, it's Barcelona against Paris Saint-Germain, the final every neutral wanted in the summer. Both teams defend better than the scoreline might suggest but PSG just have the firepower to triumph in whatever stadium Barca are playing in come late September.
Matchweek 3- Barcelona 3, Olympiacos 0
- Kairat 1, Pafos 1
- Union St. Gilloise 1, Inter 2
- Copenhagen 1, Borussia Dortmund 3
- Bayer Leverkusen 0, Paris Saint-Germain 2
- Villarreal 0, Manchester City 2
- Arsenal 1, Atletico Madrid 0
- Newcastle 2, Benfica 1
- PSV Eindhoven 1, Napoli 1
- Galatasaray 2, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Athletic Club 4, Qarabag 1
- Bayern Munich 3, Club Brugge 0
- Chelsea 3, Ajax 1
- Real Madrid 2, Juventus 0
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0, Liverpool 1
- Atalanta 1, Slavia Prague 1
- Sporting 1, Marseille 0
- Monaco 2,Tottenham 1
Atletico Madrid officially careen into yikes territory. They try to out-attrition Arsenal and that goes about the way you would expect. Come week three of the league phase, the last thing you want to be is the main character and, well, Atleti are vying with Bayer Leverkusen for a starring role.
| Pos. | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
30 | Ajax | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
31 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
32 | Marseille | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
33 | Kairat | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
34 | Club Brugge | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
35 | Bodo/Glimt | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
36 | Qarabag | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
To make matters worse for Los Colchoneros, their crosstown rivals are blitzing the field. Xabi Alonso's team are humming with nine points form nine. Their win over Juventus might be their most impressive display in the competition so far, their manager's brand of steady control suffused into a dizzying collection of attackers. They look a lock for top eight and plenty more to come.
Matchweek 4- Slavia Prague 0, Arsenal 2
- Napoli 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 2
- Paris Saint-Germain 3, Bayern Munich 1
- Liverpool 2, Real Madrid 2
- Juventus 1, Sporting 0
- Atletico Madrid 2, Union St. Gilloise 1
- Tottenham 1, Copenhagen 0
- Bodo/Glimt 2, Monaco 1
- Olympiacos 0, PSV Eindhoven 0
- Qarabag 0, Chelsea 3
- Pafos 2, Villarreal 4
- Inter 3, Kairat 0
- Manchester City 4, Borussia Dortmund 2
- Club Brugge 1, Barcelona 3
- Benfica 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0
- Marseille 2, Atalanta 1
- Ajax 3, Galatasaray 2
- Newcastle 1, Athletic Club 0
At the halfway point of the league phase, four teams have accrued the maximum number of points. In the case of Arsenal and Inter that is probably because the fixture list hasn't unduly tested them yet while Manchester City are picking up points without quite looking their usual serious contender selves. PSG? They've just carried on from where they left off.
Meanwhile every one of the English teams find themselves in the top 10, not far off the Gunners. Both Chelsea and Newcastle sit just inside the top eight with three wins and a defeat while Liverpool's high octane draw with Real Madrid puts them as the only team with two wins and two draws from the first four. Thomas Frank guides Tottenham past his compatriots from Copenhagen and Spurs look to have recovered from their bust night in Monaco.
Matchweek 5- Ajax 1, Benfica 1
- Galatasaray 1, Union St. Gilloise 0
- Chelsea 1, Barcelona 2
- Borussia Dortmund 1, Villarreal 0
- Manchester City 2, Bayer Leverkusen 0
- Bodo/Glimt 1, Juventus 3
- Marseille 2, Newcastle 2
- Slavia Prague 1, Athletic Club 0
- Napoli 2, Qarabag 0
- Pafos 0, Monaco 2
- Copenhagen 2, Kairat 1
- Arsenal 1, Bayern Munich 1
- Olympiacos 0, Real Madrid 2
- Atletico Madrid 1, Inter 2
- Liverpool 3, PSV Eindhoven 1
- Paris Saint-Germain 2, Tottenham 0
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Atalanta 0
- Sporting 0, Club Brugge 0
At the five game mark only four teams are still without a win. The draw has been harsh on Club Brugge, who will have had to play all their Pot One and Two opponents before December is out, games against Monaco and Sporting aren't much easier either. Bayer Leverkusen too might see salvation further along the fixture list but they are going to need to get motoring, tied with Karat on a solitary point. Whatever they do might not be enough, last season 10 points would not have got a team in the top 24. That generally shouldn't be the case but Hjulmand's side will have to be perfect from here on out.
There's pressure too on Bayern Munich, languishing in 16th after a draw at the Emirates Stadium. Indeed this is not shaping up to be a vintage season for Germany football with none of their teams in the top 10 of the league phase.
Matchweek 6- Kairat 0, Olympiacos 1
- Bayern Munich 3, Sporting 0
- Atalanta 1, Chelsea 1
- Inter 0, Liverpool 2
- Barcelona 3, Eintracht Frankfurt 1
- PSV Eindhoven 1, Atletico Madrid 1
- Union St. Gilloise 2, Marseille 1
- Tottenham 2, Slavia Prague 0
- Monaco 3, Galatasaray 1
- Villarreal 2, Copenhagen 0
- Qarabag 2, Ajax 1
- Real Madrid 2, Manchester City 0
- Borussia Dortmund 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Athletic Club 1, Paris Saint-Germain 2
- Bayer Leverkusen 1, Newcastle 0
- Club Brugge 0, Arsenal 2
- Benfica 1, Napoli 1
- Juventus 2, Pafos 0
It's Christmas time but, despite Paul Young's proclamations to the contrary, there is every need to be afraid if you are Ajax, Atalanta and Atletico Madrid. With five points to their name they probably are going to need to come into 2026 in a much better vein of form. It might just take two wins if they are to reach the knockouts.
Meanwhile there looks to be the first glimmer of separation between a top nine and teams who might otherwise have to settle for a place in the knockout playoffs. Certainly a sextet of PSG, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona, Manchester City and Inter are very well placed to earn their bye; Liverpool's win and a favorable pair of remaining fixtures means you'd fancy them to make tie up a spot too.
| Pos. | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 | Inter | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
7 | Liverpool | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
8 | Juventus | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
9 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Chelsea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
11 | Bayern Munich | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
12 | Monaco | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
13 | Tottenham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
15 | Napoli | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
- Kairat 0, Club Brugge 2
- Bodo/Glimt 1, Manchester City 3
- Real Madrid 2, Monaco 1
- Inter 1, Arsenal 1
- Tottenham 2, Borussia Dortmund 2
- Sporting 1, Paris Saint-Germain 0
- Olympiacos 1, Bayer Leverkusen 2
- Villarreal 2, Ajax 0
- Copenhagen 1, Napoli 2
- Qarabag 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3
- Galatasaray 2, Atletico Madrid 0
- Bayern Munich 3, Union St. Gilloise 1
- Chelsea 2, Pafos 0
- Marseille 0, Liverpool 2
- Slavia Prague 1, Barcelona 4
- Atalanta 2, Athletic Club 1
- Juventus 1, Benfica 1
- Newcastle 2, PSV Eindhoven 0
With these results six of the top eight are locked up, quite a change from last season when a great deal was left to be decided at the top of the table in the final fixtures. What has changed? Well more of the good teams have actually been really good. Manchester City, Real Madrid and PSG all wobbled their way into the knockouts, at least one of them will have learned the trouble that comes with that.
The real final day drama is going to come in the battle for 24th. There isn't a big beast of City or PSG levels scrapping for survival this time around but there is Atletico Madrid, blown away by the ferocious atmosphere in Istanbul. Their maximum points tally is eight and they have three teams between them and 24th. It looks like it's all about to go wrong for Simeone's men.
Matchweek 8- PSV Eindhoven 2, Bayern Munich 3
- Napoli 2, Chelsea 1
- Benfica 1, Real Madrid 3
- Borussia Dortmund 0, Inter 0
- Liverpool 3, Qarabag 0
- Barcelona 2, Copenhagen 1
- Manchester City 2, Galatasaray 2
- Bayer Leverkusen 3, Villarreal 0
- Arsenal 4, Kairt 0
- Union St. Gilloise 2, Atalanta 1
- Club Brugge 2, Marseille 2
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Tottenham 1
- Monaco 1, Juventus 0
- Atletico Madrid 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Athletic Club 2, Sporting 1
- Ajax 2, Olympiacos 0
- Paris Saint-Germain 4, Newcastle 1
- Pafos 1, Slavia Prague 0
If you've been following along and tracking the table in your head, first of all fair play. Secondly you might think, how are Napoli with nothing to play for beating Chelsea, vying for top eight? Well Napoli do have something to play for, Antonio Conte's burning rage at every club that has once employed him. That's worth three points eight days a week.
Now we've addressed that... onto the table, with a few thoughts to follow.
| Pos. | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Real Madrid | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
2 | Barcelona | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
3 | PSG | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
4 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
5 | Arsenal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
6 | Manchester City | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
7 | Inter | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
8 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
9 | Napoli | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
10 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
11 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
12 | Chelsea | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
13 | Monaco | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
14 | Newcastle | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
15 | Tottenham | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
16 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
17 | Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
18 | Villarreal | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
19 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
20 | Sporting | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
21 | Benfica | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
22 | Union St.Gilloise | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
23 | Copenhagen | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
24 | Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
25 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
26 | Ajax | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
27 | Olympiacos | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
28 | Slavia Prague | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
29 | Pafos | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
30 | Athletic Club | 2 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
31 | Marseille | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
32 | Club Brugge | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
33 | PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
34 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
35 | Qarabag | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
36 | Kairat | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
... Yes that is Atletico Madrid missing out on qualification by goals scored. One goal scored, to be precise. That battle for 24th is going down to the wire. It will be almost impossible for it not to be up in the air until the last few kicks of the group stage. The margins are so utterly tight that in this scenario a couple of goals going the right way for Athletic Club, perhaps a win in Prague or a draw at St. James' Park, and they'd comfortably make the knockouts.
Once more this table speaks to the damage done by draws in an eight game league. In 2024-25 Bologna lost only one more game than Borussia Dortmund's three. The Bundesliga side, however, won their remaining five and finished 10th. Bologna won one of theirs and were 28th.
The other point of note is just how many points have been accrued at the top of the table. Predictive expected points models will tend to underestimate how many the best teams in the league get but it is also true that last season only Liverpool cleared the 20 point mark. Here you'll need to do so just to hit the top five. The case for that is a lot of the biggest teams in Europe just look a lot better this year. Some others like Manchester City have had draws you'd like to get, Arsenal too have been helped out too by the fixture computer.
Will all this prove to be accurate? Oh, almost certainly not. But we'll pick this up again at the midway point (and probably get it wrong again). Such is the joy of the Champions League. It very rarely plays to expectations.
How to watchThe opening round of league phase fixtures will take place across three days – Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday – and all of it will be available to watch on Paramount+, with select additional coverage on CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network. Pre-match coverage starts at 12 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network each day before select matches air at 12:45 p.m. ET and 3 p.m. ET, with post-match coverage transitioning to Paramount+ and CBS Sports Golazo Network. The Golazo Show will be free on CBS Sports Golazo Network for Matchday 1, while coverage concludes on CBS Sports Golazo Network with new editions of The Champions Club, which will be simulcast on YouTube, and Scoreline.
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