Notre Dame football 2025: Win total, CFP outlook and the search for a starting quarterback

Notre Dame enters 2025 with its usual high expectations -- and even higher stakes -- after last season's run to the national title game. With a new defensive coordinator, questions at quarterback and a front-loaded schedule, the Fighting Irish face a razor-thin margin for error again. Expert Tim O'Malley of IrishIllustrated joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to preview expectations for Notre Dame this fall.

What are the stakes for Notre Dame in 2025?

The mission is clear for Notre Dame: identify the quarterback best equipped to lead the Irish back to the College Football Playoff. Riley Leonard will go down as a one-year chapter in Notre Dame lore, but now it's up to homegrown talents CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey to write the next one.

"I would bet a fair amount of money it's CJ Carr," O'Malley said. "They do like Minchey because he can run as well. I've heard people on campus say he actually had the best arm of the three. I don't believe that because I've watched CJ Carr throw a lot when healthy, and I think Carr will be a very good quarterback."

Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, was a top-50 recruit in the 2024 class and brings both pedigree and polish to the competition. Minchey, a top-200 prospect in the 2023 cycle, is more of a question mark. He's attempted just three passes in two seasons and is still chasing his first real opportunity to lead the offense.

As always in South Bend, everything hinges on quarterback play. If Notre Dame gets it right, Freeman could be steering the program toward another deep postseason run. If not, the Irish may be left wondering what could have been in another season loaded with potential.

Breakout player everybody needs to know

Even with a new coordinator in Chris Ash and four NFL Draft picks departing, Notre Dame still has a chance to field one of the top defenses in the nation again in 2025. But two young sophomores -- linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and defensive lineman Bryce Young -- could be the ones who take it there.

"Those are the guys where this defense could go to another level even," O'Malley said.

Both flashed elite potential as freshmen last season after arriving on campus as top-50 recruits, and their development could determine just how dominant the Irish defense becomes this fall.

Win total outlook

The projected win total for Notre Dame is 10.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Fighting Irish reached double-digit regular season wins last year for the first time under Marcus Freeman, a feat they achieved in each of Brian Kelly's final four seasons. With a visit to Miami in Week 1 followed by a marquee showdown with Texas A&M in Week 3 after an early bye week, Notre Dame has a chance to make a statement early. The rest of the schedule is manageable, but the Fighting Irish can't afford to slip up like they did last season with the inexcusable home loss to Northern Illinois.

"You can't lose two before that USC game (in Week 8) ends either because then you're kind of out of the national consciousness," O'Malley said. "You got to fight your way into the playoffs and you're doing that against teams that aren't any good. So, you're going out there and winning by 40, how much do people care?"

To stay in the playoff hunt, Notre Dame must start fast and avoid missteps, especially with limited chances for résumé-boosting wins later in the season.

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