NFL execs predict the biggest award winners: Picks for MVP, best rookies, more

Week 1 is in the books, and the best part about Week 1 is that it tempts us to make sweeping overreactions about teams' outlooks. A half-dozen teams look primed for a triumphant march to Levi's Stadium on Feb. 8 for Super Bowl LX. A half-dozen others need a full-scale teardown. Your favorite player is either headed for NFL Honors or the bench, with little middle ground.

None of this is truly applicable. It's Week 1. How else would you explain that the man who nearly broke the NFL rushing record last season, Saquon Barkley, managed 60 rushing yards vs. a subpar Dallas run defense on Thursday night? The road to the playoffs is rarely linear.

But what's certain: Championships require individual brilliance from star players.

That's where we come in, asking executives and scouts to sort out who will be holding the hardware when the 2025 season ends. From MVP to rookie of the year and top coach, few of the major awards offer clear consensus, which leaves room for a few surprises.

Jump to: MVP | OPOY | DPOY | OROY | DROY Comebacks | Breakouts | Top coach

Winning a third MVP would put Jackson in an exclusive club of quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Johnny Unitas.

He nearly pulled off the feat last season, but Buffalo's Josh Allen outdistanced him in the voting, which is fitting because Allen had 424 total yards (30 rushing) and four total touchdowns (two rushing) Sunday vs. Jackson's Ravens at home. Jackson had three touchdowns (one rushing) of his own, along with 209 passing yards on 19 attempts -- 27 fewer than Allen -- and 70 rushing yards.

Although Allen made a compelling opening case to go back-to-back -- "he's the ultimate difference-maker," an NFL personnel evaluator noted postgame -- Jackson figures to be in the race because of a few factors: His dual-threat ability typically keeps his touchdown total high, he consistently wins games (.736 career win percentage) and he limits turnovers, averaging one interception roughly every third game since 2024.

And he's coming off his first 4,000-yard passing season, a good sign for his relationship with offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

"His supporting cast is really good, and he's improving from the pocket," an AFC executive said. "Playing better in the big games in January will always be the thing with him, but I feel like that's a matter of time."

His multiple turnovers in last season's divisional-round loss to Buffalo still sting, but when it comes to the regular season, Jackson's an elite producer.

Also receiving votes: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)

This award belongs mostly to non-quarterbacks. Since Patrick Mahomes won in 2018, a receiver or running back has taken home the past six OPOY awards.

But league personnel find themselves wanting to find a spot for Daniels when it comes to individual accolades. Some are hesitant to put him firmly in the MVP market, which Allen, Jackson and Mahomes have cornered since 2022.

But an important criterion for such voting is how a player elevates his team and instills belief. Not many are doing that like Daniels of late.

"Combining the throwing talent with running ability plus adding another underneath RAC weapon [Deebo Samuel] will keep him in the conversation," an AFC executive said. "I think you could have made the argument for him last year for MVP given how he turned that thing around and how well he played. I'm banking on another Year 2 jump."

Daniels' understated impact was on display Sunday against the Giants at home. In a performance with modest passing numbers (19-of-30, 233 yards, one touchdown), Daniels completed at least two passes to five receivers, including seven for 77 yards to Samuel on a team-high 10 targets.

Also receiving votes: Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens), Mahomes, Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles), Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles), Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals), Burrow, Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)

Denver cornerback Pat Surtain II is firmly in this conversation again after winning the award in 2024. He pushed Garrett in the voting. Denver's defense is among the league's best, and Surtain is the catalyst, a true lockdown corner.

But pass rushers tend to dominate this award, and no pass rusher is more menacing right now than Garrett. Atop the Bengals' scouting report Sunday was neutralizing Garrett, who still managed 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss and 3 quarterback hits.

Garrett's relentless motor has him hurtling toward a fifth consecutive season with at least 14 sacks. Last season, Garrett led the NFL in tackles for loss (22) on his way to back-to-back All-Pro nods.

"He's the ultimate game-plan wrecker," an NFC personnel evaluator said.

"He's still in his prime [29], so he should have at least a few years of dominant production," an NFC personnel evaluator said. "One thing that hurts him is the Browns could be playing from behind a lot. But that hasn't stopped him before."

Also receiving votes: Surtain, Micah Parsons (Green Bay Packers), Travon Walker (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Several rookies have a strong case, resulting in a lack of consensus among the voters. At least seven players among the top 40 picks received at least one vote. Evaluators project a big year for Colts tight end Tyler Warren, who pushed for the top spot.

But Hampton has a few things going for him. HIs offensive coordinator is Greg Roman, whose love for the run game runs deep. Najee Harris sat out all of camp because of an eye issue, and though he's back, Hampton is well-positioned as a primary back, resulting in 17 touches for 61 yards in his Week 1 debut vs. Kansas City.

"He's on a team that's had playoff success and is going to run the football," an AFC scout said. "He's a perfect back for that offense. Ashton Jeanty is a good player, but I'm not sure the Raiders will be good enough."

Also, many evaluators say they believe Emeka Egbuka is destined to drive award-season conversations in the future. He received several votes alongside Warren, and those were before his two-touchdown debut in Atlanta.

Also receiving votes: Tyler Warren (Indianapolis Colts), Emeka Egbuka (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Travis Hunter (Jacksonville Jaguars), TreVeyon Henderson (New England Patriots), Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders), Matthew Golden (Green Bay Packers), RJ Harvey (Denver Broncos)

Micah Parsons burst onto the NFL scene in 2021 as a feared pass rusher out of Penn State. Carter has a chance to replicate his fellow Nittany Lion's impact in the NFC East, the division that Parsons, a former Dallas Cowboy, once dominated.

Carter's pass-rush prowess was on display during the preseason, and with a deep Giants defensive line that features Dexter Lawrence II and Brian Burns, Carter should get his share of one-on-one matchups.

"He can be an All-Pro in the relatively near future," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "It's all set up for him."

Carter's half-sack debut Sunday vs. Washington belies his true impact. He was constantly applying pressure on the pocket with an array of pass moves and Gumby-like bends off the edge.

Although the voting for offensive rookie of the year was close, Carter dominated the DPOY discussion, earning more than 50% of the votes.

Also receiving votes: Kenneth Grant (Miami Dolphins), Jordan Burch (Arizona Cardinals), Jalon Walker (Atlanta Falcons), Malaki Starks (Baltimore Ravens), Will Johnson (Cardinals)

Several star players more accomplished than McCarthy are returning from significant injury and are in line to make a run at the comeback award. But McCarthy enters his first year starting in an ideal situation to maximize his skill set.

The Vikings are a playoff contender and believe they can build a Super Bowl-caliber roster with a starting quarterback under the low-cost rookie wage scale. McCarthy also benefits from sitting and watching behind the scenes for a year because of his season-ending knee injury suffered in the 2024 preseason.

Also, any young quarterback should hope to have a top-flight wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) and tight end (T.J. Hockenson) the way McCarthy does.

"[Kevin] O'Connell will get the best out of him, and he's got enough talent around him where he doesn't have to do it all," an AFC executive said. "They should support him with a strong running game."

McCarthy already was the pick before Monday night's win over Chicago, but his three-touchdown second half (two passing, one rushing) to erase an 11-point deficit punctuated his case.

Also receiving votes: Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys), Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit Lions)

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Breakout player: Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

This category is tricky because of the threshold for what classifies as a "breakout." Two players who received multiple votes here are New York's Malik Nabers and Jacksonville's Brian Thomas Jr., who already broke out as rookies in 2024 with 1,200-plus receiving yards each.

So, we asked voters for change-of-pace options, players who are set up for Year 2 or 3 success. Pearsall emerged, coming off a 108-yard season debut in Seattle. The former first-round pick's rookie campaign was derailed by a gunshot wound to the chest from an attempted robbery in August 2024. He also has dealt with hamstring issues and a shoulder subluxation.

"I am high on Ricky and he should see plenty of targets -- he has to prove he can stay healthy, though," an NFC exec said.

Pearsall figures to be a primary target for Brock Purdy through the first half of 2025. Jauan Jennings sat out most of camp and is dealing with a shoulder injury, and tight end George Kittle just went on injured reserve because of a hamstring issue.

Also receiving votes: Bo Nix (Denver Broncos), Calijah Kancey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Tyler Guyton (Dallas Cowboys), Riley Moss (Broncos), Calen Bullock (Houston Texans)

The Chiefs are sitting on nine consecutive AFC West titles. The Chargers showed Friday night why that streak could be in jeopardy.

Harbaugh has changed the equation in Los Angeles, which is 12-6 since he took over. After last week's win over Kansas City in Sao Paulo, Harbaugh is 6-0 in Week 1 dating to his San Francisco days.

"He has a team that can win the West, which would be an accomplishment," an NFC executive said. "He has that team playing with an edge "

Evaluators noted that the offense appears to be evolving in Roman's second year as playcaller. Justin Herbert was a crisp 25-of-34 for 318 yards, three passing touchdowns and 32 rushing yards. Last season, Herbert averaged fewer than 30 passing attempts per game since Los Angeles leaned heavily on the run. The Chargers were unafraid to pass the ball late in the game and with the lead Thursday night. That shows Harbaugh's ability to adapt.

Harbaugh has won everywhere he has been, so the momentum he has built in Los Angeles should be no surprise.

Also receiving votes: Mike Macdonald (Seattle Seahawks), Mike Vrabel (New England Patriots), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas Cowboys)