Hype Check: Who's Rising, Who's Falling Two Weeks into the College Football Season

The gap between hype and reality is already starting to show itself through two weeks of the college football season.

Programs that began the year with modest expectations have produced statement wins, and others who had College Football Playoff expectations have struggled out of the gate.

FOX Sports college football writers RJ Young and Michael Cohen assess some of the biggest early surprises — both good and bad — heading into Week 3. Which teams are for real, and which are riding early momentum that won’t last?

Through two weeks of play, which program has most outperformed preseason expectations, and conversely, which team has underwhelmed or failed to live up to preseason expectations?

RJ Young: Are we still sure that Kansas State is any good? This is a team I ranked in the top 25 on the strength of their coaching staff, quarterback, running back and overall résumé in the College Football Playoff era. Heading into this season, Kansas State was on the list of teams I expected to contend for their first appearance in the CFP, and so far all the Wildcats have done is lose to a ranked Iowa State team, barely beat FCS North Dakota at home ,and then take a debilitating loss at Bill Snyder Family Stadium to an Army team that has already lost to FCS Tarleton State.

I’m sure some ‘Cats fans would like me to be more sympathetic to the toll international travel has had on their players, but Iowa State performed the same trip, played the same kind of schedule, and is 3-0 and looking much like the class of the Big 12 Conference heading into Week 3. If Chris Klieman knows something I don’t, now is the time to say and show what that is. Otherwise, we might be looking at a lost year for a Kansas State team that had a Heisman candidate at quarterback to start the season in a league that feels wide open for any team to win.

On the flip side, with respect to South Florida, I’m rather enthusiastic about Oklahoma. Yes, I ranked the Sooners among the preseason top 25, but the Associated Press poll began the season with the Sooners ranked No. 18, and the Coaches Poll didn’t even think enough of Brent Venables’ team to include them at all. All the Sooners have done since the start of the season is decisively beat their FCS opponent and then beat a top-15 Michigan program. Yes, both of those wins have come in the friendly confines of Owen Field, but the Sooners also feature a quarterback in John Mateer, who has been responsible for at least two touchdowns and 340 yards in both games. The Sooners face eight ranked opponents in conference play this year, so they’ll have every chance to continue to earn the respect fans will feel they're owed.

Michael Cohen: With an honorary tip of the cap to Florida State, which has risen from the depths of a hideous 2-10 record in 2024 to reach No. 10 in the latest AP Poll thanks to bludgeoning victories over then-No. 8 Alabama (31-17) and East Texas A&M (77-3), the clear choice for early season overachiever has to be South Florida. The Bulls, who were picked fifth in the preseason American Conference media poll, have surged from unranked to 18th in the country following back-to-back wins over ranked opponents. They opened with a decisive, 34-7 upset over then-No. 25 Boise State — an entrant in last year’s College Football Playoff — by forcing three turnovers and finding the end zone on a 45-yard fake punt to snap a streak of 18 consecutive defeats against ranked teams. Then USF traveled across the state to face No. 13 Florida, a team picked by many to reach the playoff for the first time in program history, and upended the Gators, 18-16, on a walk-off field goal as time expired.

In doing so, South Florida became just the third unranked team in the last 25 years to begin a season 2-0 with wins over two ranked teams. The Bulls are also the only team in the country with two wins over ranked opponents so far this season, thrusting themselves into pole position for a potential run at the playoff if they can remain afloat in the American. But before diving into conference play, where Tulane, Navy and Memphis are expected to provide the stiffest competition, head coach Alex Golesh’s squad has the chance to score another seismic victory when it faces No. 5 Miami this weekend at Hard Rock Stadium. If South Florida can secure a third consecutive victory against a ranked opponent — two of which would have come away from home — the Bulls might vault themselves into the top 10 of next week’s poll and become the best early story in the sport.

It certainly feels like 12th-ranked Clemson is on the opposite end of that spectrum. With eight returning starters on offense and eight more on defense — plus the infusion of new defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who helped lead Penn State to the national semifinals last year — the Tigers were a trendy choice to lift the national championship trophy in 2025 after winning the ACC and reaching the College Football Playoff last year. The return of veteran quarterback Cade Klubnik, who threw for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions in 2024, was supposed to give Clemson a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate at the sport’s most important position. And the program’s strong retention efforts meant that the Tigers only lost nine players to the transfer portal, with four of those departures offset by the rare arrival of incoming transfers, something head coach Dabo Swinney is typically reluctant to pursue.

But while Clemson’s hard-fought, season-opening loss to then-No. 9 LSU was largely excused given the caliber of opponent, even if that game was at home, what happened in Week 2 has become impossible to overlook. The Tigers appeared listless and disinterested while falling behind 16-0 to Troy, a school from the Sun Belt that finished 4-8 last season. Klubnik, who finished 18-of-24 for 196 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, seemed uncomfortable for large chunks of the game, an unexpected development given this is his third year under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, a hot-shot addition to Swinney’s staff in 2023.

It has to be particularly concerning for Riley and Swinney that the ground attack remains stuck in the mud through two weeks, averaging an anemic 2.96 yards per carry, good enough for 124th out of 136 teams nationally. Were it not for a third-quarter flurry against Troy, with Clemson scoring 17 points in the span of roughly six minutes to seize control of the game, Swinney’s team might have tumbled from the Top 25 entirely. Alarm bells are definitely sounding.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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